原油日报 | 2025-11-26 关注俄乌和谈前景 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所1月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌89美分，收于每桶57.95美元，跌幅为1.51%；1月交货的伦敦 布伦特原油期货价格下跌89美分，收于每桶62.48美元，跌幅为1.4%。SC原油主力合约收跌0.98%，报443元/桶。（来 源：Bloomberg） 2、 里海管道联盟表示，由于无人机袭击，黑海终端暂时暂停石油装载。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、美国总统特朗普表示，由美国起草的最初的28点和平计划经过双方的进一步完善，目前仅剩少数几个分歧点， 俄乌局势可能缓和。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 当地时间11月24日，美国俄勒冈州州长宣布该州进入紧急状态，以确保在供应该州90%以上燃料的奥林匹克输 油管道因泄漏而关闭期间，有足够的燃料运抵该州。根据州长蒂娜·科特克的命令，进入紧急状态是为了确保通过 船舶和卡车向该州输送足够燃料。奥林匹克输油管道由英国石油公司运营，从华盛顿州延伸至俄勒冈州。自本月 初首次报告泄漏并出现间歇性停运以来，已关闭一周。BP公司在一份声明中表示，其工作人员正在寻找泄漏源。 （来源：Bloom ...

△基辅遭袭 责编：黄之安、陈亚楠 当地时间11月25日，俄军空袭包括基辅在内的乌克兰多地。乌方称，袭击已造成基辅市6人死亡，基辅市7个区的居民供暖中断。乌克兰国家电力公司通报 称，基辅地区已实施紧急断电措施。 另据乌克兰国家紧急情况服务局消息，24日晚至25日凌晨乌克兰敖德萨州遭俄军袭击，袭击导致能源和港口基础设施发生火灾，截至目前已有6人受伤，其 中包括2名儿童。（总台记者 王晋燕） ...

Core Points - The phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump lasted for one hour and covered topics such as China-U.S. trade, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and Taiwan [1] - Trump described the call as "very good" and mentioned discussions on soybean and other agricultural product purchases, as well as efforts to curb illegal fentanyl trafficking [1] - Trump announced plans to visit China in April next year and expressed optimism about the strengthening relationship between the two countries [1] Summary by Categories Trade Relations - The discussion included agricultural purchases, specifically mentioning soybeans and other products [1] - There has been "significant progress" in ensuring the relevance and accuracy of bilateral agreements since the successful meeting in South Korea [1] Geopolitical Issues - The call addressed the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the situation in Taiwan, indicating a broad range of geopolitical concerns [1] Future Engagement - Trump plans to visit China in April 2024, signaling ongoing diplomatic engagement [1]

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年11月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美联储委员再放鸽，继续助长12月降息预期，金价回升；美国三大股指 全线收涨，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率 跌3.66个基点报4.027%；美元指数涨0.05%报100.20，离岸人民币对美元小幅贬值报 7.1068；COMEX黄金期货涨1.33%报4133.8美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货927.36，现货926，基差-1.36，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单90426千克，不变；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线在20日均线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多 ...

当地时间24日，俄罗斯总统普京与土耳其总统埃尔多安通电话，双方主要就与乌克兰相关局势交换了意 见。 据俄罗斯克里姆林宫发布的消息，普京在通话中再次重申俄方通过政治外交途径解决乌克兰危机的意 愿。他同时指出，美国方面有关乌克兰问题的建议符合俄美领导人阿拉斯加会晤达成的共识，原则上可 以成为开展彻底的调解工作的基础。双方还表示，俄土两国将就乌克兰问题在不同层面加强沟通。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 土耳其总统府发布消息称，双方讨论了土耳其和俄罗斯的双边关系、俄乌冲突以及其他地区和全球问 题。埃尔多安表示，土耳其将继续努力，以公正持久的和平结束俄乌冲突。土耳其愿像过去一样，为所 有有助于各方直接接触、为地区实现持久和平的外交倡议做出贡献。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bias towards a bearish trend, with a driving force for price decline but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Asphalt: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] Core Viewpoints - The progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan negotiation and the Venezuela geopolitical risk are the key factors affecting the energy market this week. The energy market is generally under pressure due to factors such as geopolitical situation, supply - demand imbalance, and the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts [2][3][4] Summary by Categories Crude Oil - The Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation has made progress, and the Fed's wavering attitude towards a December interest rate cut has pressured crude oil and other risk assets. There is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, so the previous bearish strategy should be continued [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The absolute price of fuel oil is dragged down by the cost side. High - sulfur fuel oil has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with limited impact of geopolitical factors on Russian exports and high - level exports from the Middle East to Asia during the off - peak power generation season. The demand for feedstock in China is expected to gradually decline. Although the US sanctions on Russia on November 21 may cause short - term fluctuations, the medium - term supply surplus will suppress the market. Low - sulfur fuel oil was previously supported by unstable overseas refineries, but the partial restart of the Azur refinery on November 29 and the possible increase in supply from the Dangote RFGC device maintenance at the end of December will increase the subsequent pressure [3] Asphalt - The price in the northern market remains stable supported by some refineries switching to produce residual oil and the terminal project rush - demand, while the price in the southern market has been declining due to abundant resource supply and refinery shipment pressure, narrowing the north - south price difference. The weekly shipment volume has been below 400,000 tons since the middle of the month, at a low level in the same period in the past four years. In the short term, the main contract on the trading floor is supported at 3,000 yuan/ton, but the weak crude oil trend still suppresses the asphalt market sentiment, and with the expectation of supply increase, the asphalt is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly [4]

最近几天，因为特朗普那突然搞出来的"28点和平方案"，欧洲和乌克兰可以说好一阵鸡飞狗跳。 前日，贝森特在接受NBC采访时称："有欧洲人告诉我，我们已经对俄罗斯进行了第19轮制裁！但在我 看来，假如你一件事连着做了19次，那就说明你失败了。"除此之外，他还谴责了欧洲人通过购买俄罗 斯石油来资助俄罗斯的行为。 虽然说都知道特朗普亲俄，但也没谁想到他这能搞出这种完全符合俄罗斯利益的神奇方案来。 欧洲为了劝阻美国也是操碎了心，又是紧急推出"反提案"，又是专门和美国财政部长取得联系，结果却 被其嘲讽了一顿…… 从这"28点和平计划"就能看出，特朗普政府已经接受了乌克兰战场上的失败。 反正在特朗普看来，就算乌克兰投降了，那输的也是拜登，而不是他，出卖其小泽来毫无心理压力。 上有所好，下必从焉。 特朗普对乌克兰像对待用过的抹布一般的态度，也影响到了下面的人，包括这位当初特朗普要搞"对等 关税"时，一度传言打算辞职跑路，好保住自己经济专家名声的财政部长斯科特·贝森特先生。 贝森特也不知道是彻底麻了还是真的舍不得官位，如今算是彻底成为了特朗普的忠实小弟，特朗普让干 涉就干啥，甚至公开嘲笑欧洲的无能。 虽然欧洲的确挺无能的。 欧 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary criticized European leaders for planning additional sanctions against Russia, stating that the EU's sanctions have "failed" [1][3] - The Secretary highlighted that if a measure is implemented 19 times, it indicates failure, referring to the EU's 19th round of sanctions against Russia [3] - The EU's 19th round of sanctions includes 69 new individual sanctions and various economic restrictions, primarily targeting Russia's energy, finance, and military sectors [3] Group 2 - The EU Commission President announced that member states have approved the 19th round of sanctions, marking the first time the EU targets Russia's natural gas industry [3] - The Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that the new sanctions will not achieve their intended effects and may harm the EU itself, asserting that Russia has developed immunity to sanctions [3] - Despite facing sanctions, Russia intends to continue developing its economic and political potential [3]

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 11821, with a recent opening at 11715 and a current price of 11837, reflecting a decrease of 0.90% [1] - The highest price reached was 11977, while the lowest was 11689, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in silver futures [1] - The trading range for silver last week was between 12300 and 11700, with ongoing positions held for low-level purchases [3] Group 2 - The analysis suggests that if the price does not break 12300, it will continue to oscillate, but if it breaks above 12300, there could be significant upward movement [3] - The support level is identified at 11700, which is considered a stable point for bullish outlooks [3]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower last week, with the Dow Jones down 1.91%, the Nasdaq down 2.74%, and the S&P 500 down 1.95% [1] - European indices also performed poorly, with the FTSE 100 down 1.64%, the CAC 40 down 2.29%, and the DAX down 3.29% [1] Economic Data Releases - A series of key economic data, delayed due to government shutdown, will be released this week, potentially increasing market volatility ahead of the Federal Reserve's December meeting [2] - Important data includes September retail sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) on Tuesday, and September durable goods orders on Wednesday [2] - The release of the revised Q3 GDP growth rate and October personal income and spending data has been rescheduled [2] CPI and Employment Reports - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced it will not release the complete October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, with the November report scheduled for December 18 [3] - The delay in the October employment report may increase the importance of weekly initial jobless claims data [2] MSCI Index Adjustments - The MSCI China Index will undergo adjustments effective after the market close on November 24, including the addition of 26 stocks and the removal of 16 stocks [4] - New additions include companies like Qianli Technology and Huahong Semiconductor, while removals include Beikong Water Group and China Everbright Bank [4] U.S.-Ukraine Talks - U.S. and Ukrainian representatives reported progress in talks regarding a new 28-point plan to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict [5] - U.S. Secretary of State Rubio indicated that both sides are working to narrow differences and move towards a mutually acceptable solution [6]