The Bank of America Institute is out with the consumer checkpoint for the month of September and debit and credit card spending actually increased for the third month in a row. Joining us right now to break it all down is Holly O'Neal. She is Bank of America president of consumer consumer banking.And Holly, thanks for coming in today. Thanks very much for having me. Um, so another increase in spending.We keep talking about how the consumers slow slowing down. The job market is slowing down, but the spending ...

Consumer Spending Trends - High-income shoppers are increasingly shopping at discount retailers like Walmart, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree [1] - High-income consumers are spending more at resale companies, indicating a search for deals and value [7] - Low-income consumers are not holding up as well, showing pullback on discretionary items like travel and full-service restaurants [7][8] Retailer Performance - Luxury goods are showing weakness, potentially benefiting mid-range brands like Coach [4] - Off-price retailers such as TJ Maxx, Marshalls, and Burlington are performing well [6] - Resale companies like Savers Value Village and Depop are among the best-performing sectors [6] Pricing and Inflation - Retailers are finding it difficult to pass on price increases to consumers [9] - Pricing at Walmart and Target has been rangebound, with no broad-based price increases outside specific categories [10][11] - Fast fashion company Shein successfully raised prices after the de minimis exemption was removed [12] Economic Outlook - Overall consumer spending is holding up relatively well, better than feared [13] - The high-income consumer is crucial to overall spending, and their behavior during the holiday season is a key indicator for the retail landscape [13][14]

Group 1: High-Income Consumer Trends - High-income shoppers are increasingly turning to discount retailers like Walmart, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree, indicating a trend of "trade down" as they seek better deals [1][2] - Despite high-income consumers performing better than lower-income counterparts, they are still managing their spending and looking for bargains, suggesting that retailers' efforts to attract this demographic may be effective [2][4] - The luxury market has seen consistent weakness, with high-priced items becoming less accessible, leading consumers to consider more affordable options [3][4] Group 2: Resale and Off-Price Retail Performance - Resale companies and off-price retailers like TJ Maxx and Marshalls are experiencing strong performance, with high-income consumers increasing their spending in these sectors [6][7] - The trend towards sustainability and the thrill of finding deals are driving high-income shoppers to resale markets, further indicating a shift in consumer behavior [7] Group 3: Low-Income Consumer Challenges - Low-income consumers are not holding up as well as high-income consumers, raising concerns about their spending power and its impact on the retail landscape [7][8] - If high-income consumer spending falters, it could negatively affect discretionary spending across various sectors, including travel and dining [8][9] Group 4: Pricing and Inflation Dynamics - Retailers are facing challenges in passing on price increases to consumers, which has contributed to a relatively stable spending environment despite inflationary pressures [9][10] - Specific categories have seen price increases, but overall pricing remains rangebound, benefiting consumer spending [10][11] Group 5: Holiday Season Outlook - The performance of high-income consumers is critical for the retail landscape, especially as the holiday season approaches; any decline in their spending could have widespread implications [13][14] - Key holiday winners are expected to include resale and off-price retail sectors, indicating a potential shift in consumer preferences during the shopping season [14]

Chinese companies that do business with American consumers are dealing with tariffs and rising inflation. But for those trying to make a living at home, they're fighting just the opposite. Our Uni Yun explains.Chef Wong is cooking up his specialty fried pigeon. Not in his restaurant, but out on the sidewalk. Hotels across the country have started selling food from their restaurants on the street.This is a way to drum up business amid a consumer spending slump. High-end Beijing hotel Bayon Grand sets up stal ...

for a look at the economy, the consumer, the Fed, and so much more. We can go a million places this morning. Joining us in an exclusive interview is Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Sharp, and we're thrilled to have you at the table on this 30th anniversary week of Squawkbox, no less.Great to be here, and congratulations to you. 30 years of anything's an accomplishment. Thank you.So, the big question is the state of the economy. uh your uh colleague, former peer or peer, former colleague Jamie Diamond says the econo ...

Government Shutdown & Political Landscape - 存在政府关门的严重可能性，因为众议院和参议院的进度严重落后，且白宫似乎不重视避免关门[3] - 白宫取消 50 亿美元的外援，激怒了立法者，这表明他们并不担心达成协议[4] - 经济影响通常不显著，通常只是将一些经济活动推迟到政府重新启动后，通常持续一周左右[6] - 民主党人认为在政治上必须对特朗普总统表现出强烈的抵抗，他们可能会利用这次机会[10] - 特朗普总统希望表明他对债务和赤字负责，而民主党人则不然，这有助于他在政治和实质上获益[11] - 市场已经习惯了政府关门，认为这是一种政治歌舞伎，但这次可能会更加重要，因为市场对债务和赤字已经感到不安[14][15] Tariffs & Trade - 特朗普政府可能会通过其他方式复制关税的影响，因为总统 40 年来一直主张征收关税，并且认为关税是个好主意[17][18] - 美国与中国达成协议的可能性大大降低，因为中国不愿帮助美国解决乌克兰和中东的冲突，也不愿与美国达成贸易协议[21][23] Economic Outlook & Monetary Policy - 9 月份降息的可能性接近 90%[26] - 最近三个月，就业增长速度约为每月 35,000 个，预计可能略有回升至 50,000 左右，但仍然是一个相当疲软的数字[28] - 关税和政策不确定性导致公司暂停扩张计划并减少招聘[32] - 估计约有 30% 到 40% 的关税转嫁给了消费者，其余成本由美国公司承担[34] - 即使关税的影响是一个缓慢而漫长的过程，但总体而言，关税的影响将是暂时的，因为物价水平会出现一次性上涨，之后通货膨胀应该会再次缓和[38] - 预计美联储将在 9 月份降息，今年可能在 12 月份再次降息，然后观望明年这些影响的发挥情况[40] - 特朗普政府正试图将美联储的组成转变为更加鸽派的方向，这可能意味着利率会略低于其他情况[42][43][44] Consumer Spending & Retail - 消费者情绪相对疲软，但消费者仍在消费，只是更加谨慎[50][51] - 只有约 22% 的关税转嫁给了消费者[53] - 零售额的增长在一定程度上是由消费者对未来事件的反应所驱动的，因为他们担心未来价格上涨，从而提前消费[55] - 高收入家庭占总家庭支出的比例越来越大，现在超过 50%，他们受到的影响较小，并且正在推动零售经济中的更多支出[56]

Households earning between $50,000 and $100,000 are trading down, cutting back and feeling increasingly strapped, while high earners keep on spending https://t.co/563rhbz5WO ...

Hispanics helped fuel US consumer spending during the pandemic recovery. Now they're pulling back after years of high prices and anxiety about Donald Trump's immigration crackdown https://t.co/OlHaLB891O ...

Fiscal Policy & Economic Growth - The analysis suggests tariffs are running at an annual rate between $400 billion and $500 billion, potentially improving the deficit, but real GDP growth is considered the key to significantly reducing the deficit as a percentage of GDP [1] - The report anticipates real GDP growth will surprise on the high side of expectations later in the year and into 2026, driven by innovation platforms like robotics, energy storage, AI, multiomic sequencing, and blockchain technology, all catalyzed by AI [1] - The analysis highlights deregulation, particularly in crypto, AI, and nuclear energy, as a significant factor for economic growth, with tax changes encouraging manufacturing and innovation through accelerated depreciation schedules and full expensing of equipment, R&D, and software [1] Inflation & Monetary Policy - The report indicates that while inflation may seem stuck in the 2% to 3% range, innovation-driven productivity gains could lead to deflation in the coming years [2] - The analysis points out that M2 money supply growth has significantly dropped compared to the COVID boom, and the velocity of money is declining, potentially diffusing inflationary pressures [2] - The yield curve, measured by the two-year Treasury yield relative to the three-month Treasury yield, indicates tight monetary policy, which is expected to have disinflationary or deflationary effects [3] - True inflation CPI is reported at 19%, even with tariffs factored in, and consumer inflation expectations are expected to decline [3] Market Indicators & Investment Strategy - The analysis notes that manufacturing has been contracting for the last three years, and services are not in great shape, signaling potential economic concerns [4] - The report highlights that AI-powered capital spending is increasing, supported by new tax rules, while the trade deficit is being addressed [5] - The analysis observes that pending home sales are deteriorating, and new home inventory is high, potentially leading to price cuts and impacting the CPI [5] - The report suggests that the return on investment in the US is expected to increase due to innovation, tax laws, and deregulation, potentially strengthening the dollar [5] - The analysis notes that corporate profits are healthy, but quality of earnings and harnessing new technologies will be crucial for future growth [5] - The report observes that commodity prices are going nowhere, and gold is breaking out to all-time highs relative to metals, possibly signaling deflationary concerns [5]

Let's break down what this jobs report means for stocks after the major averages fell from the record highs they set earlier today. Joining us now is Ross Mayfield. He is an investment strategist at Bar Private Wealth Management.Ross, it's great to have you on. Given what we've seen in the data, not only today, but this week, what we're seeing in the bond market, do stocks hovering right near record highs, does that make sense, or are we looking at maybe a near-term peak here. No, I think it makes sense.I m ...