1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: Limited drivers from the origin, focus on the lower support [2][4] - Soybean oil: Range-bound operation, pay attention to China-US economic and trade relations [2][4] - Soybean meal: Trade concerns resurface, may rebound and fluctuate [2][12] - Soybean: Rebound and fluctuate [2][14] - Corn: Rebound to some extent [2][16] - Sugar: Range-bound oscillation [2][20] - Cotton: Stable in the short term, pay attention to the international economic and trade situation [2][25] - Eggs: Oscillatory operation [2][30] - Live pigs: The bottom of the spot market has not appeared [2][32] - Peanuts: Pay attention to the weather in the producing areas [2][37] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Palm oil's daily closing price was 9,330 yuan/ton, down 0.36%; night - closing price was 9,320 yuan/ton, down 0.11%. Soybean oil's daily closing price was 8,240 yuan/ton, down 0.34%; night - closing price was 8,244 yuan/ton, up 0.05%. Also provided are data on trading volume, positions, spot prices, basis, and price spreads [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in November to 4,262.23 Malaysian ringgit per ton (1,008.1 US dollars), and maintained the export tariff at 10% [6]. 3.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Tracking**: DCE soybean meal 2601's daily closing price was 2,902 yuan/ton, down 1.16%; night - closing price was 2,915 yuan/ton, up 0.10%. DCE soybean 2601's daily closing price was 3,967 yuan/ton, unchanged; night - closing price was 3,984 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. Also provided are data on spot prices, basis, trading volume, and inventory [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Concerns about China - US relations led to a slight decline in CBOT soybean futures. Traders are uncertain about the potential China - US trade agreement and the resumption of China's soybean purchases from the US [13][15]. 3.3 Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: Important spot prices such as the average purchase price in the Northeast, Jinzhou's closing price, etc. are provided, along with price changes. Futures prices, trading volume, positions, and price spreads are also given [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn's bulk shipping and container shipping prices have changed. Corn prices in the Northeast and North China have generally declined [18]. 3.4 Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: The original sugar price was 15.87 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,800 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5,397 yuan/ton. Price differences and basis data are also provided [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Brazil's sugar production in the first half of September increased by 16% year - on - year, but exports decreased. Conab lowered Brazil's sugar production forecast for the 25/26 season. Domestic and international market supply and demand forecasts are also provided [20][21][22]. 3.5 Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: Futures prices, trading volume, positions, spot prices, and price spreads of cotton are provided [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading was okay, with spinning mills maintaining rigid demand. The new order of the cotton yarn market was weak, and the price of medium - and low - count yarns was under pressure [26]. 3.6 Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Futures prices, trading volume, positions, price spreads, and spot prices of eggs are provided [30]. 3.7 Live Pigs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Spot prices in different regions, futures prices, trading volume, positions, and price spreads of live pigs are provided [34]. 3.8 Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: Important spot prices, futures prices, trading volume, positions, and price spreads of peanuts are provided [37]. - **Spot Market Focus**: The trading situation in different peanut - producing areas is introduced, and the weather and the expected listing time of new peanuts are mentioned [38].

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - On October 14, 2025, most futures varieties showed different trends. A - share stock indexes generally declined, while some futures like coke and焦煤 showed slight increases, and others like sugar, rubber, and palm oil were affected by various factors and showed downward or fluctuating trends [1][2][3][4]. Industry Analysis Stock Index Futures - On October 14, A - share three major indexes collectively declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.62% to 3865.23 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.54% to 12895.11 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 3.99% to 2955.98 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2576.2 billion yuan, an increase of 221.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4539.06, a decline of 54.91 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On October 14, the coke weighted index showed a weak shock, closing at 1665.5, a rise of 4.8. The coking coal weighted index had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1167.5 yuan, a rise of 6.5. Coke's coking profit is near the break - even point, and the demand increment is insufficient. Coking coal's supply recovery is slow, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [3][4][5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the prospect of global supply surplus in the 2025/26 season and other factors, the US sugar fell on Monday. The Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fell sharply on Tuesday and then had a slight rebound at night. As of the end of September, Guangxi's sugar sales volume increased, but the sales rate decreased, and the industrial inventory increased [5]. Rubber - Affected by factors such as Sino - US economic and trade relations, crude oil prices, and Southeast Asian spot prices, Shanghai rubber declined on Tuesday and had a slight decline at night. In September 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased compared with the same period in 2024 [6]. Palm Oil - On October 14, palm oil futures prices declined slightly. Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in November while keeping the export tariff unchanged [7]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on October 14, CBOT soybean futures were weakly volatile. Domestically, soybean meal futures were also weakly volatile. High imports of soybeans and the expected early listing of Brazilian soybeans help ease concerns about the supply shortage [8]. Live Pigs - On October 14, live pig futures rebounded from a low level. Currently, the live pig market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but it is expected to stabilize and rebound after November, with the rebound height limited by over - capacity expectations [9]. Shanghai Copper - Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and overseas copper mine supply disturbances support copper prices, but Sino - US trade disputes and weak domestic demand lead to copper price fluctuations. The inventory has increased, and the peak - season demand is lower than expected [9]. Iron Ore - On October 14, the iron ore 2601 contract declined. The supply is relatively loose, and there is an increasing pressure on steel mills to reduce production in the future, so the iron ore price is in a volatile trend [10]. Asphalt - On October 14, the asphalt 2511 contract declined. The production and shipment of asphalt decreased, and the demand is affected by weather and funds, so the price is in a volatile trend [10]. Logs - On October 14, log futures prices continued to decline. The spot price remained stable, and the import volume from January to September decreased year - on - year. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the market is in a pattern of inventory reduction [12]. Cotton - On the night of October 14, Zhengzhou cotton futures closed at 13240 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased, and the Sino - US trade war has a certain suppressing effect on the cotton market [12]. Steel - On October 14, steel futures prices showed a general downward trend. After the holiday, steel demand is average, the inventory reduction speed may be slow, and the cost support is insufficient, so the steel price may be weakly volatile in the short term [12]. Alumina - On October 14, alumina futures closed at 2805 yuan/ton. The spot market supply is abundant, the inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to continue to decline [13]. Shanghai Aluminum - On October 14, Shanghai aluminum futures closed at 20860 yuan/ton. The macro - situation is complex, and the supply is stable. The demand is improving, and the social inventory in the East China region has decreased [13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. should not impose new restrictions while seeking dialogue with China, and both sides should work towards maintaining the progress made in trade negotiations [1][2] - China emphasizes its commitment to national security and international stability through its export control measures, asserting that these are lawful and not prohibitive [1] - The Chinese government criticizes the U.S. for its discriminatory practices and the ongoing imposition of restrictions that harm bilateral trade relations [1] Group 2 - China's stance on the trade war is clear: it is open to negotiations but will respond firmly to any aggressive actions from the U.S. [2] - The previous rounds of trade negotiations have demonstrated that mutual respect and equal dialogue can lead to effective solutions [2]

● 本报记者王舒嫄 商务部新闻发言人10月14日就近期美方宣布对华加征关税等限制措施答记者问时表示，美方不能一边要 谈，一边威胁恐吓出台新的限制措施，这不是与中方相处的正确之道。中方敦促美方尽快纠正错误做 法，拿出谈的诚意，与中方相向而行，以两国元首通话重要共识为引领，维护好来之不易的磋商成果， 继续发挥中美经贸磋商机制作用，通过对话协商解决各自关切，妥善管控分歧，推动中美经贸关系健 康、稳定、可持续发展。 发言人表示，关于关税战、贸易战，中方立场是一贯的。打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开。中美拥有广泛 的共同利益和广阔的合作空间，双方合则两利，斗则俱伤。过去4轮经贸磋商充分证明，中美在相互尊 重、平等协商基础上，能够找到解决问题的办法。 发言人表示，近日，中方已就美威胁对华加征100%关税等限制措施阐明了有关立场。"我愿重申，关于 稀土等相关物项的出口管制措施，是中国政府依据法律法规，完善自身出口管制体系的正当做法。中国 作为负责任大国，始终坚定维护自身国家安全和国际共同安全，中国的出口管制不是禁止出口，对符合 规定的申请将一如既往地予以许可，共同维护全球产供链安全稳定。措施出台前，中方已通过双边出口 管制对话机 ...

商务部新闻发言人10月14日就近期美方宣布对华加征关税等限制措施答记者问时表示，美方不能一边要 谈，一边威胁恐吓出台新的限制措施，这不是与中方相处的正确之道。中方敦促美方尽快纠正错误做 法，拿出谈的诚意，与中方相向而行，以两国元首通话重要共识为引领，维护好来之不易的磋商成果， 继续发挥中美经贸磋商机制作用，通过对话协商解决各自关切，妥善管控分歧，推动中美经贸关系健 康、稳定、可持续发展。 ● 本报记者 王舒嫄 发言人表示，关于关税战、贸易战，中方立场是一贯的。打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开。中美拥有广泛 的共同利益和广阔的合作空间，双方合则两利，斗则俱伤。过去4轮经贸磋商充分证明，中美在相互尊 重、平等协商基础上，能够找到解决问题的办法。 发言人表示，近日，中方已就美威胁对华加征100%关税等限制措施阐明了有关立场。"我愿重申，关于 稀土等相关物项的出口管制措施，是中国政府依据法律法规，完善自身出口管制体系的正当做法。中国 作为负责任大国，始终坚定维护自身国家安全和国际共同安全，中国的出口管制不是禁止出口，对符合 规定的申请将一如既往地予以许可，共同维护全球产供链安全稳定。措施出台前，中方已通过双边出口 管制对话 ...

"打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开" - 这句掷地有声的表态不仅在国际社会引发强烈反响，更展现了中方在中美经贸关系中的战略自信与定力。 近日，中国商务部在例行记者会上透露，中美双方于近期举行了工作层级的会谈。这一消息迅速引发国际社会广泛关注。值得注意的是，此次会谈的背景正 值美方宣布对部分中国商品加征100%关税之际，使得这次工作层沟通更具特殊意义。 国际观察家们注意到，当前中美关系呈现出"对话与对抗并存"的复杂态势。一方面，两国保持着必要的工作沟通；另一方面，贸易摩擦的阴影依然挥之不 去。这种微妙局面考验着双方的政治智慧和战略耐心。 01 坚定立场：清晰传达中国态度 商务部此次表态展现出鲜明的外交风格。"打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开" 的表述既展现了中方的战略自信，也表明了开放合作的态度。 这次表态包含三个核心要点： 首先，中方明确表示对稀土等相关物项实施的出口管制措施，是基于国内法律法规和国际惯例的正当行为。这些措施在出台前已通过既有对话渠道向美方进 行通报，体现了中方的规则意识和负责任态度。 其次，商务部指出，自中美马德里经贸会谈以来，美方持续推出新的限制性措施，这种行为严重破坏了双方之间的互信基础。 再者，中 ...

中新社北京10月14日电 (记者 尹倩芸)就近期美方宣布对华加征关税等限制措施，中国商务部新闻发言 人14日称，美方不能一边要谈，一边威胁恐吓出台新的限制措施，这不是与中方相处的正确之道。 近日，美方官员称，在得知中方对稀土等相关物项采取出口管制措施后，提出与中方进行通话，但中方 推迟了这一建议。同时美方表示，双方需要找到回到稳定局面的办法。 发言人对此表示，中方注意到有关情况。近日，中方已就美威胁对华加征100%关税等限制措施阐明了 有关立场。关于稀土等相关物项的出口管制措施，是中国政府依据法律法规，完善自身出口管制体系的 正当做法。中国作为负责任大国，始终坚定维护自身国家安全和国际共同安全，中国的出口管制不是禁 止出口，对符合规定的申请将一如既往地予以许可，共同维护全球产供链安全稳定。措施出台前，中方 已通过双边出口管制对话机制向美方进行了通报。 发言人说，反观美方，长期泛化国家安全，滥用出口管制，对华采取歧视性做法。特别是中美马德里经 贸会谈以来美方持续新增出台一系列对华限制措施，严重损害中方利益，严重破坏双方经贸会谈氛围， 中方对此坚决反对。 发言人称，关于关税战、贸易战，中方立场是一贯的。打，奉陪到 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel has a neutral valuation, and the spot market lacks a rebound driver. The steel market is affected by macro - uncertainties and industry - specific factors, with demand being crucial. For the short - term, there is no clear contradiction for a unilateral direction, and there are concerns about negative feedback in the off - season [2]. - Silicon iron and manganese silicon lack driving forces and their prices are oscillating. Supply is high, demand is weak, and there are long - term concerns despite short - term production motivation [2]. - Coking coal and coke have strong spot performance but the futures market is oscillating. There are concerns about negative feedback in the short - term, while policies may have a positive impact on supply in the long - term [4]. - Iron ore is affected by trade frictions and supply - demand factors. There is a risk of supply surplus in the fourth quarter, and short - term observation is recommended [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On October 13, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3139.00 yuan/ton (down 27.00 yuan, - 0.85%), HC2605 at 3274.00 yuan/ton (down 25.00 yuan, - 0.76%), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3083.00 yuan/ton (down 24.00 yuan, - 0.77%), HC2601 at 3261.00 yuan/ton (down 29.00 yuan, - 0.88%) [1]. - The cross - month spreads, such as RB2601 - 2605 at - 56.00 yuan/ton, HC2601 - 2605 at - 13.00 yuan/ton, etc., and the spreads/price ratios/profits like the coil - to - rebar spread at 178.00 yuan, the rebar - to - ore ratio at 3.83, etc., also had corresponding changes on October 13 [1]. Spot Market - On October 13, Shanghai rebar was priced at 3210.00 yuan/ton (down 50.00 yuan), Tianjin rebar at 3180.00 yuan/ton (down 50.00 yuan), etc. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3300.00 yuan/ton (down 60.00 yuan), Hangzhou hot - rolled coil at 3340.00 yuan/ton (down 60.00 yuan) [1]. - The base differentials, such as HC main contract at 39.00 yuan/ton, RB main contract at 127.00 yuan/ton, etc., also had changes on October 13 [1]. Investment Strategies - For steel, take a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading. Focus on the opportunity to go long on the coil - to - rebar spread of the 01 contract when it is below 150. Roll the futures - cash reverse arbitrage [6]. - For coking coal and coke, take a wait - and - see approach for now [6]. - For iron ore, take a short - term wait - and - see approach [5].

关于关税战、贸易战，中方立场是一贯的。打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开。 中美拥有广泛的共同利益和广阔的合作空间，双方合则两 利，斗则俱伤。过去4轮经贸磋商充分证明，中美在相互尊重、平等协商基础上，能够找到解决问题的办法。双方在中美经贸磋商机制 框架下一直保持沟通，昨天还进行了工作层会谈。我想指出，美方不能一边要谈，一边威胁恐吓出台新的限制措施，这不是与中方相 处的正确之道。中方敦促美方尽快纠正错误做法，拿出谈的诚意，与中方相向而行，以两国元首通话重要共识为引领，维护好来之不 易的磋商成果，继续发挥中美经贸磋商机制作用，通过对话协商解决各自关切，妥善管控分歧，推动中美经贸关系健康、稳定、可持 续发展。 来源：商务部网站 End 欢迎分享给你的朋友！ 出品 | 中国能源报（c ne ne rgy） 有记者问：近日，美方官员称，在得知中方对稀土等相关物项采取出口管制措施后，提出与中方进行通话，但中方推迟了这一建议。 同时美方表示，双方需要找到回到稳定局面的办法。请问商务部对此有何评论？ 答：中方注意到有关情况。近日，中方已就美威胁对华加征100%关税等限制措施阐明了有关立场。我愿重申，关于稀土等相关物项的 出口管制措施 ...

2025年10月14日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地驱动有限，关注下方支撑及宏观风险 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：区间运行，关注中美经贸关系 | 2 | | 豆粕：贸易情绪暂时稳定，震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注新粮上市 | 6 | | 白糖：供应过剩预期，价格承压 | 7 | | 棉花：注意外部市场影响 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：现货弱势运行 | 10 | | 生猪：现货底部未现，关注收基差行情 | 11 | | 花生：关注产区天气 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,364 | -0.78% | 9,392 | 0.30% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,268 | -0.41% | 8,302 | 0.41% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | ...