Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has confirmed ongoing communication between China and the U.S. regarding trade relations, emphasizing the importance of mutual respect and cooperation to stabilize economic ties [2] - The spokesperson highlighted that since May, high-level economic talks have taken place in Geneva and London, resulting in agreements that aim to ensure sustainable development in U.S.-China economic relations [2] - The Ministry of Commerce responded to EU leaders' comments on "overcapacity," stating that China's new energy sector does not face overcapacity but rather a capacity gap, urging the EU to engage in more constructive dialogue [3] Group 2 - The Chinese government has initiated actions to combat the smuggling and illegal export of strategic minerals, aligning with international practices for export control [4] - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterated China's opposition to the broad interpretation of national security, particularly in response to the U.S. imposing a 50% tariff on copper imports, asserting that trade wars yield no winners [5] - China has expressed its commitment to signing the Southeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty, indicating a willingness to enhance regional security cooperation [6][7]

据央视新闻，今天下午，商务部召开新闻发布会，新闻发言人就中美是否会在8月初进行谈判一事进 行了回应。 商务部新闻发言人何咏前表示，今年5月以来，在中美两国元首共识指引下，双方经贸团队在日内瓦 和伦敦举行了经贸高层会谈，达成了日内瓦共识和伦敦框架，并抓紧落实有关成果，稳定了两国经贸 关系。目前，双方在多个层级就经贸领域各自关切保持密切沟通，希望美方与中方相向而行，本着相 互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢的原则，发挥好中美经贸磋商机制作用，继续加强对话沟通，以实际行 动维护和落实好两国元首通话重要共识，共同推动中美经贸关系稳定、健康、可持续发展，为世界经 济发展注入更多确定性和稳定性。 ...

Group 1 - The core development in US-China economic relations is the transition from a "tariff truce" in Geneva to the establishment and implementation of the "London Framework," indicating a significant adjustment in posture between the two nations [1][2] - The "London Framework" includes key agreements such as China's approval of export licenses for controlled items and the US's cancellation of a series of restrictive measures against China [1][2] - As of July 4, US companies have been notified by the Department of Commerce that exports of EDA software, ethane, and certain aircraft engine components to China have been restored, while China is expediting the approval of export licenses for strategic resources like rare earths [1][2] Group 2 - Despite progress, structural challenges remain in US-China economic relations, particularly in areas like AI chips and quantum computing, where US restrictions are still in place [3] - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the US has not yielded benefits and has led to market turmoil, highlighting the need for continued dialogue and cooperation [3] - The US is encouraged to expand the scope of lifted restrictions and seek broader cooperation, moving beyond a zero-sum mindset to view China as an equal partner [3][4] Group 3 - The ideal future state of US-China economic relations should shift from friction and conflict to cooperation and mutual benefit, emphasizing the importance of managing competition while expanding collaboration [4] - Mechanized dialogue is essential to transform the "measures framework" into a "results list," achieving breakthroughs in tariff reductions, technological cooperation, and rule restructuring [4] - The Geneva-London negotiations mark the beginning of this transition, but further progress requires mutual actions and the accumulation of political and economic trust [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The central bank's continuous net investment maintains loose market liquidity, and the term spread further widens, reflecting the certain expectation of short - term liquidity loosening. Amid complex overseas situations and domestic stock market fluctuations, the bond market still has short - term repair momentum. In the medium and long term, with a weak economic fundamentals and supportive loose policies, the foundation for a bond market bull market remains. In the short term, the bond market will continue to fluctuate due to the game between loose funding and supply disturbances, but market focus is gradually shifting to the Politburo meeting in July and the evolution of Sino - US trade relations, and future policy stances and external disturbances will dominate the market direction [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI has a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.10%; monthly PPI has a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.60% [8] - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale is 426.16 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.16 trillion yuan (+0.51%); M2 year - on - year is 7.90%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.10% (-1.25%); manufacturing PMI is 49.70%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.20% (+0.40%) [8] - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 97.49, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.03 (-0.03%); the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1819, with a day - on - day increase of 0.011 (+0.15%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.46, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 (+0.62%); DR007 is 1.48, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 (+0.90%); R007 is 1.68, with a day - on - day increase of 0.04 (+2.35%); the 3 - month yield of AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit is 1.54, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 (+0.50%); the 1 - year AA - AAA credit spread is 0.06, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 (+0.50%) [8] 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Figures include the closing price trend of the continuous main contract of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each treasury bond futures variety, the maturity yield trend of treasury bonds with different terms, the valuation change of treasury bonds with different terms in the past day, the trend of the precipitation funds of each treasury bond futures variety, the proportion of the open interest of each treasury bond futures variety, the net open - interest proportion of the top 20 traders in each treasury bond futures variety, the long - to - short open - interest ratio of the top 20 traders in each treasury bond futures variety, the trading - to - open - interest ratio of each treasury bond futures variety, the bond lending turnover and the total open interest of treasury bond futures, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [10][13][15][16][19][22][24] 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - Figures include the interest rate corridor, central bank open - market operations, the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit, the statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase transactions, and the issuance of local government bonds [29][31][34] 4. Spread Overview - Figures include the inter - delivery spread trend of each treasury bond futures variety, and the spread between the spot - bond term spread and the cross - variety spread of futures (4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 3*T - TL, 2*TS - 3*TF + T) [38][40][41][43] 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures include the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years [43][45][53] 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures include the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years [52][55] 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures include the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years [60][62] 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures include the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years [67][70][73]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting between China's international trade representative and former U.S. Treasury Secretary indicates ongoing discussions regarding U.S.-China economic relations, highlighting the importance of dialogue in addressing trade issues [1] Group 1 - The meeting took place on July 9, where Li Chenggang, the international trade negotiation representative and vice minister, engaged with Henry Paulson, the chairman of the Paulson Institute [1] - The discussion focused on the economic relationship between China and the United States, emphasizing the need for continued communication to navigate trade complexities [1]

美商务部长称拟于8月初与中方会谈，美代表团成员名单曝光。 据环球网援引美国《华盛顿邮报》报道，美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克当地时间8日接受美国消费者新闻 与商业频道（CNBC）采访时表示，美国代表团预计将于下月与中方官员会面，就贸易问题展开磋商。据 卢特尼克披露，美方代表团成员还包括财政部长斯科特·贝森特和美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔。 "我想我们将于8月初举行会谈，开启中美这两个全球最大经济体之间更大规模的贸易对话。我本人、贝森 特和格里尔将于8月初一同参与这一进程。我们将一同启程。我们将与中方同行会面。"卢特尼克说，"我 认为这需要一些时间，但至少我们正开启更深入交流的进程。" 7月8日，外交部发言人毛宁主持例行记者会。有记者提问："美国财长贝森特称，预计未来几周将同中方 对等官员会面，推进经贸等问题磋商。外交部对此有何评论？"对此，毛宁回应："这个问题建议向中方主 管部门询问。" 此外，对于有关中美经贸谈判的最新进展，毛宁也回应称建议向中方主管部门了解。 7月4日，商务部新闻发言人就美取消相关对华经贸限制措施情况答记者问。商务部新闻发言人表示，中美 伦敦经贸会谈后，双方于近期确认了落实两国元首6月5日通话 ...

热点资讯 1.美国总统特朗普表示，计划对不同国家征收从60%到70%、以及从10%到20%不等的关税。各国将于8月1日开始支付这些关税。 2.据澎湃消息，外交部发言人毛宁主持例行记者会，毛宁表示，具体问题建议你向中方的主管部门了解。作为原则，我们希望 美方能够同中方相向而行，以实际行动维护和落实好两国元首通话的重要共识，共同推动中美经贸关系健康稳定可持续发展。 3.商务部新闻发言人表示，中美伦敦经贸会谈后，双方于近期确认了落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈 成果的具体细节。目前，双方团队正在加紧落实伦敦框架有关成果。中方正依法依规审批符合条件的管制物项出口许可申请。 美方也采取相应行动，取消对华采取的一系列限制性措施，有关情况已向中方作了通报。 早盘速递 2025/7/7 第 1 页，共 3 页 板块持仓 (300,000) (200,000) (100,000) 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 Wind农副产品 Wind谷物 Wind化工 Wind能源 Wind煤焦钢矿 Wind有色 Wind商品综合 Wind软商品 Wi ...

怎么来看这件事？毫无疑问，这又是美国政客炒作所谓"中国援俄"话题。而类似的炒作，自俄乌冲突爆发后，几乎就没有断过。除了美国政客外，欧盟那边 也曾接二连三的借此来向我国发难。6月中旬，欧盟还将两家中国小型银行列入制裁名单。他们给出的理由是，这两家中资银行为俄罗斯绕过欧盟现有贸易 限制提供了便利。另外，今年2月，欧盟在对俄罗斯发起第16轮制裁的时候，还将部分中国企业和个人列入制裁清单。 现在格雷厄姆又妄图借俄乌冲突威胁对华加征500%的关税，至少说明了两点：第一，这些反华政客无时无刻不在想着如何对付中国；第二，他们现在已经 找不到其他理由来向我国发难了，只能这样一次次的"炒剩饭"。只不过这一次，印度也跑不了。 对于这项最新的法案，格雷厄姆还信誓旦旦的声称，特朗 普同意他这么做。他说这句话的意思很明显就是在强调，该法案通过的可能性非常大。 中美刚签字休战，美议员又借俄乌问题威胁对华加税，这到底是怎么回事？特朗普会同意吗？ 6月29号当天，特朗普的密友、美国共和党参议员格雷厄姆公开对华发"通牒"，准备对中国加征500%的关税。这是怎么回事？按照他的说法，由于在俄乌冲 突期间，中国和印度采购俄罗斯的石油，这相当于是对俄 ...

Group 1 - The recent cancellation of export restrictions by the U.S. on three major chip design software suppliers and other products to China indicates a thawing in trade tensions between the two countries, with both sides showing a willingness to resolve issues through dialogue rather than confrontation [1][2] - The implementation of the London Framework highlights the mutual benefits of U.S.-China economic relations, with significant revenue from the Chinese market for U.S. companies like Intel and Qualcomm, emphasizing the importance of cooperation for global economic stability [2][3] - Despite positive steps, many U.S. restrictions on exports to China remain in place, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and biotechnology, which continue to disrupt international supply chains [3][4] Group 2 - The interdependence of U.S. and Chinese economies, which together account for over one-third of the global economy, underscores the necessity for a healthy and stable bilateral relationship for global economic health [4] - The ongoing trade dynamics suggest that both countries must recognize the importance of mutual respect and cooperation to achieve win-win outcomes, rather than resorting to unilateral pressure tactics [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce has notified companies to resume exports of chip design software, ethane, and aircraft engines to China, indicating a potential easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China [1][2] - The recent adjustments by the U.S. are seen as a return to mutually beneficial principles rather than concessions to China, as the previous restrictions were deemed unreasonable [2][3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has confirmed that both sides are working to implement the agreements reached during recent economic talks, emphasizing the importance of dialogue and cooperation [3][4] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that while the U.S. has lifted some export bans, the unpredictability of U.S. policies may continue, and China will maintain its focus on strategic and technological independence [6][7] - The lifting of restrictions is expected to delay the domestic production of jet engines in China but will not halt the progress of the C919 aircraft project [6][7] - The U.S. government's recent policy changes reflect its need to attract investment and expand trade with China, especially in light of domestic economic challenges [9][10]