Lackluster growth in Asia and low inflation justified rate cuts, writes @Moss_Eco. The same prescription may not work in 2026 (via @opinion) https://t.co/JtQblAXIK2 ...

Economic Outlook - Economists have upgraded Singapore's 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4.1%, up from 2.4% in September, driven by a stronger-than-expected third quarter expansion of 4.2% year on year [2] - Manufacturing growth expectations have increased significantly to 5.4% from 0.8%, with upward revisions in finance and insurance, wholesale and retail trade, and construction sectors [2] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Fourth quarter growth is projected at 3.6%, with 2026 growth expected to moderate to 2.3% [3] - Inflation forecasts for 2025 remain steady at 0.9% for headline and 0.7% for core inflation, with expectations of slight increases in 2026 [3] - All surveyed economists expect no changes in monetary policy during the January and April 2026 reviews, with only 11% anticipating potential tightening by July 2026 [3] Keppel DC REIT Developments - Keppel DC REIT has announced the acquisition of remaining interests in two Singapore data centres for approximately S$50.5 million, achieving 100% ownership of both properties [4] - The total acquisition outlay is about S$53.9 million, which includes purchase consideration and related expenses, and is expected to be 0.8% DPU-accretive [5] - Post-acquisition, the REIT's assets under management will increase by 3.5% to S$5.9 billion, with Singapore assets rising from 57.8% to 58.8% of the portfolio [6] CapitaLand-UOL Consortium Bid - A consortium of CapitaLand Development, CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust, and UOL Group submitted the top bid of S$1.5 billion for a mixed-use site in Hougang Central [7] - The site spans 504,820 square feet with a gross floor area of 1.27 million square feet, and if awarded, will feature approximately 830 residential units and 300,000 square feet of retail space [8]

Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY00) reached a 1-week high, increasing by +0.19% due to yen weakness and positive comments from New York Fed President John Williams [1] - The dollar is facing pressure from the Federal Reserve's liquidity boost, with a monthly purchase of $40 billion in T-bills starting last Friday [2] - Concerns about President Trump's potential appointment of a dovish Fed Chair are negatively impacting the dollar, with Kevin Hassett being the likely candidate [2] Group 2 - US existing home sales in November increased by +0.5% month-over-month to a 9-month high of 4.13 million, although it fell short of the expected 4.15 million [3] - The University of Michigan's US December consumer sentiment index was unexpectedly revised down by -0.4 to 52.9, contrary to expectations of an upward revision [3] - The 1-year inflation expectations for December were revised upward to 4.2% from 4.1%, indicating rising inflation concerns [3] Group 3 - New York Fed President John Williams expressed optimism about economic data, projecting US GDP growth of 1.5% to 1.75% for this year, with no immediate need for further monetary policy action [4] - The market is pricing in a 22% chance of a 25 basis point cut in the fed funds target range at the upcoming FOMC meeting on January 27-28 [4]

The big risk in the market's mind is that as the government both fiscal and monetary policy moves are towards easing will inflation take off again. That's the biggest question we face. We have a strong point of view on it.But the burden of proof is on us because inflation does seem to have been stuck in this 2 and a half to 3% range for a while now. So we have to answer that question and I think the biggest answer to the question is if uh real growth rates start accelerating now uh we believe inflation will ...

>> WHY DON'T WE GET OVER TO STEVE LIESMAN. HE'S GOT A VERY SPECIAL GUEST THIS MORNING. A SPECIAL INTERVIEW WITH NEW YORK FED PRESIDENT JOHN WILLIAMS.STEVE. >> ANDREW. THANK YOU.YES, I AM HERE AT THE NEW YORK FED WHERE I'VE BEEN. WE DON'T KNOW HOW MANY YEARS IN A ROW NOW, BUT SEVERAL WITH PRESIDENT JOHN WILLIAMS FOR A TRADITIONAL DECEMBER HOLIDAY INTERVIEW. WELL, WELCOME BACK, STEVE.THANKS. AND JOHN, I WAS JUST REMARKING ABOUT HOW GREAT OUR TEAMS ARE WHO SCHEDULED THIS MONTHS IN ADVANCE, KNEW THERE WOULD BE ...

Inflation Analysis - CPI data shows encouraging signs of disinflation, but some technical factors related to data collection issues in October and early November may have distorted the headline CPI reading, potentially pushing it down by approximately 01% [3][4][5] - The distortion is attributed to data collection occurring primarily in the second half of November when sales are prevalent, and issues with rent data [6] - The industry awaits further data in the next month or two to better assess the impact of these technical factors on inflation readings [7][8] Labor Market Assessment - Employment reports indicate steady job gains, particularly in the private sector, and moderate growth [9] - Technical factors related to data collection in October may have temporarily boosted the unemployment rate in November, potentially by around 01%, suggesting an adjusted unemployment rate of approximately 45% [10] - The labor market is experiencing a gradual cooling, with no signs of a sharp deterioration [11] Monetary Policy Stance - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is currently well-positioned to gather more information and assess the economic outlook and risks to achieving employment and price stability goals [14] - Current data is broadly consistent with patterns observed, supporting the decision to cut interest rates at the last meeting, but is not yet a "game changer" [13] - The Federal Reserve is aiming to stabilize the labor market and bring inflation down to 2% without causing undue harm to the labor market, indicating a balancing act [16] Neutral Rate Discussion - The real interest rate, adjusted for inflation, is estimated to be around 1% to 125%, which is within the range of neutral rate estimates [19] - The speaker's personal view is that the neutral rate is likely a bit below 1%, suggesting that monetary policy is still mildly restrictive [20]

Rupee Performance and Influencing Factors - The Indian Rupee (INR) experienced weakness, becoming one of the worst-performing currencies this year, despite interventions [5] - Capital outflows, weak capital inflows (the weakest since the global financial crisis), and the absence of an India-U S trade deal are key factors driving Rupee weakness [4][5][6] - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervened by buying bonds with 500 billion Rupees to calm the markets, which provided short-term relief [2] - Increased tolerance by the RBI for a weaker Rupee level is aimed at attracting capital inflows [7] Rupee Forecast and RBI Strategy - Forecasts suggest the Rupee could weaken to between 93 and 95 levels in the first part of 2026 [4][5] - The RBI is expected to shift its strategy to smoothing the Rupee's movements rather than defending a specific level in 2026 [9] - The RBI will likely use opportunities to rebuild its foreign exchange reserves [8] Economic Impact and Policy Implications - A weakening Rupee can act as a shock absorber, allowing monetary and fiscal policy to focus on growth and jobs [13][14] - While a weaker Rupee provides incremental support for exporters, Indian exporters are primarily price takers [15][16] - Low global commodity prices should limit the negative impact of a weaker Rupee on imports [17][18] - The government should focus on domestic levers of growth, such as consumption, and consider further tax cuts [20] - The government should focus on structural issues like ease of doing business and tax consistency to attract investments [23]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan raised its key policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 0.75%, marking the highest level since September 1995 to curb inflation [1] - Inflation in Japan has remained above the BOJ's target of about 2%, recorded at 3% in November, excluding volatile fresh food costs [2] - The BOJ's decision to raise rates comes after Japan's economy contracted at a 2.3% annual rate in the last quarter, despite improved business sentiment and price pressures [4] Group 2 - The current 0.75% rate is still considered low, especially compared to the rates of other central banks that have raised rates to combat inflation [3] - Japan's national debt is nearly three times the size of its economy, and low interest rates have been a strategy to manage this debt [5] - The weakening of the Japanese yen has contributed to rising inflation, as it increases the cost of imported goods [6]

The dollar index (DXY00) on Thursday rose by +0.05%.  The dollar recovered from early losses on Thursday and posted modest gains as EUR/USD retreated.  The dollar also found some support on Thursday after US weekly jobless claims fell as expected.  The dollar initially moved lower on Thursday amid weaker-than-expected US reports on the Nov CPI and the Dec Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey, which may prompt the Fed to keep easing monetary policy.  Also, strength in stocks on Thursday curbed liquidity ...

With the skepticism surrounding the inflation data, what should you do with your money. Do you go all in on stocks. Do you proceed with some more caution.Let's ask Rebecca Patterson, independent director at Vanguard and the former chief investment strategist at Bridgewwater. Great to see you first of all. >> Good to see you.>> Do do you I hate to put it quite this way. Do you care about the the vagaries of whether this report is reliable or not. Can you can you wait it out.Do you look to the market reaction ...