So, this is the biggest 1-day drop in rates since August of last year. The average on the 30-year fix dropped 16 basis points this morning to 6.29%. That according to Mortgage News Daily, and that is the lowest rate since October 3rd of last year.So, we're finally breaking out of this high 6% range that it's been in for many months. Mortgage News Dy's Matt Graham also says many lenders are priced better than this at rates of 6.125% and many lenders will be quoting in the high fives today. So it's a major di ...

Mortgage rates in the US fell, extending a steady decline that offers homebuyers some relief https://t.co/krGaaqGKhs ...

Let's let's spend another minute, Josh. I I don't want to sort of gloss over your best stocks in the market list with, by the way, another CNBC Pro um edition of of late. Um because what's interesting to me is the reason why we moved it up into our A block is number one, financials have been trading so well, but that you make the declaration that it's the smaller banks that are actually breaking out.um you like one chart especially but can you give us a little bit more on on that theme. Yes, absolutely. As ...

Mortgage Rate Trends - 30-year mortgage rates have fluctuated between approximately 6% and nearly 8% over the past two years [1] - Despite the Federal Reserve cutting short-term rates, longer-term rates have been increasing [1] - Historically, the Federal Reserve cuts rates when entering or already in a recession, leading to lower rates across the board due to decreased inflation expectations [1] Factors Influencing Mortgage Rates - The 10-year Treasury yield is a key driver of mortgage rates [2] - Supply and demand of treasuries significantly impact mortgage rates [2] Impact of Government Borrowing - Increasing government borrowing leads to a rising supply of treasuries [3] - If the demand for treasuries does not keep pace with the rising supply, bond prices decrease, resulting in higher yields (rates) [3]

Mortgage Market - The time to make an offer on a home might be now, considering the latest mortgage rates [1]

Fed Policy & Rate Cuts - The market is closely watching the Fed's next move regarding rate cuts, particularly the timing and magnitude, and whether political influence is a factor [1] - The market currently prices in an 85% expectation of a rate cut, but a strong payroll report (e.g., 300,000-400,000 jobs) with positive revisions could cause the Fed and the market to reconsider [5] - Labor data is crucial for justifying potential rate cuts, as highlighted by Waller, Bowman, and Powell [2] - The Fed might decide to phase out quantitative tightening (QT) at the next meeting, especially concerning mortgage-backed securities (MBS), to avoid upward pressure on mortgage rates while cutting rates [7] Inflation & Economic Data - The super core inflation rate has accelerated from approximately 0.06% in April to 39% currently [3] - Next week's data releases are critical to determine if full employment has taken precedence over stable pricing in the Fed's dual mandate [1] Fed Balance Sheet - The Fed is still allowing $35 billion of mortgage-backed securities to roll off each month, contributing to upward pressure on the 10-year Treasury yield and mortgage rates [5] - Quantitative tightening, while a passive tightening measure, has likely kept mortgage rates higher than they otherwise would be [8]

Housing Market Trends - The housing market is undergoing a recalibration period after the pandemic boom, with a shift in the supply-demand equilibrium towards buyers [7][16] - A bifurcation exists in the housing market, with Sun Belt and Mountain West areas experiencing more softening compared to the Midwest and Northeast [19][20] - Existing home sales are approximately 13 million below the normal trend, indicating a significant constraint in the purchase side of the mortgage market [35] - Refinance activity is also experiencing a three-year drought, coinciding with the low purchase side, making it a tough period for the mortgage industry [42] Builder Strategies and Margins - During the pandemic, builders had significant pricing power and record profit margins, but they have since compressed margins to entice buyers [3][4][5] - Builders initially used mortgage rate buydowns as a successful lever, but are now resorting to outright price cuts in some areas like Florida and Texas [6][8] - Builder margins have seen compression year-over-year among the top 11 publicly traded home builders, although many still exceed pre-pandemic levels [10] - Some builders are choosing to protect margins by pulling back on the overall number of sales, leading to a softening in single-family housing starts [11] Factors Influencing the Market - The deceleration of migration to Sun Belt areas means local incomes must now support prices, which are detached from underlying incomes [21][22][23] - The "lock-in effect," where homeowners are hesitant to give up lower mortgage rates, is impacting both supply and demand in different regions [28][31] - Tariffs have not had a significant impact on build costs, as only 7% of residential construction materials are imported, and some key materials were excluded from tariffs [13][14][15] Open Door Analysis - Open Door overpaid for homes in boomtown markets and faces challenges in the higher interest rate environment with less housing market churn [45] - There is skepticism about the long-term viability of Open Door's core I-buying business, but opportunities exist for the company to leverage its scale and attention to move into other business avenues [45][46]

E-commerce & Tariffs - The de minimis exemption, allowing tariff-free entry for packages under $800, is ending, impacting online shoppers and businesses [1] - Previously, the de minimis exemption was closed for China and Hong Kong, affecting retailers like Shein and Temu; now it's expanding to the rest of the world [1] - Smaller businesses are expected to be hit harder by the tariff changes as they may lack the margins to absorb the increased costs [1] - Tariffs could range from 10% to 50% depending on the country and product, potentially leading to price increases for consumers [1] - Global shippers are pausing shipments to the US due to the changes, which may cause delays and fewer choices for consumers [1] Mortgage & Refinancing - Mortgage originations increased to a nearly three-year high in the second quarter, driven by purchases and cash-out refinances [1] - Cash-out refinances accounted for 59% of all refinance transactions, with 70% of borrowers taking on higher rates to tap into their home equity [1] - Mortgage rates are averaging around 656%, the lowest since last October, presenting a potential opportunity for some homeowners [1] - Home equity hit a record of $178 trillion nationwide [1][4] - For conforming, jumbo, and FHA loans, a 12-month waiting period is required for cash-out refinancing; VA loans require 210 days [1][10] Retirement & Healthcare Costs - A 65-year-old retiring this year is estimated to spend approximately $172500 out-of-pocket on medical expenses throughout retirement, a 4% increase from last year [1][18] - Assisted living apartments average over $74000 per year in 2024, while costs for dementia patients can exceed $94000 annually [1][18] - 20% of Americans have not factored healthcare into their retirement plans [1][20] - Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) offer tax-free contributions, tax-free growth, and tax-free withdrawals for qualified medical expenses [1][21] - Healthcare costs could represent approximately 15% of annual living expenses in retirement [1][28] Financial Security & Student Loans - Individuals should check their credit reports from all three major bureaus (Equifax, Experian, TransUnion) and place a credit freeze to protect against identity theft [1][31][32] - Parent PLUS loans are now capped at $20000 per child with a $65000 lifetime maximum; graduate PLUS loans are eliminated entirely [1][35] - A new lifetime borrowing cap of $257600 exists across all federal student loan programs [1][36] - A new balance-based repayment plan ties the repayment term to the amount owed, with a default option called the Repayment Assistance Plan (RAP) [1][36][37] - All old student loan repayment plans will phase out by July 2028 [1][37]

Key Senate Democrats are pressing the Trump administration to hold off on plans to sell shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in order to study how the move would impact mortgage rates https://t.co/uFgXvBp0lb ...

Market Trends & Potential Risks - High mortgage rates are keeping aspiring homeowners on the sidelines [1] - Democratic senators fear the Trump administration is about to drive mortgage rates higher [1]