Nailed it. https://t.co/egf8wkTxz6s4mmy (@S4mmyEth):Rate cuts in September?Send everything higher with haste. ...

Market Sentiment and Economic Data - The market has been surprisingly resilient, with a 12% increase during the summer, marking the third strongest summer in a long time [1] - Composite economic data suggests weakening employment conditions, as indicated by the Beige Book, ISM, ADP, and JOLTS reports [2] - Market's reaction is heavily influenced by revisions to economic data [4] - Revisions to employment numbers are common, with initial surveys typically having a lower response rate (around 60%) compared to later revisions (90-95%) [6] Employment Data Analysis - Consensus for the upcoming jobs number is 75,000, and unless the number is significantly outside the range of 50,000 to 150,000, it may not be a major market-moving event [9] - A jobs number above 150,000 could introduce uncertainty about potential Fed rate cuts in October and December [12] - Negative revisions to May and June numbers could potentially accelerate the timeline for Fed rate cuts [5] Federal Reserve (Fed) Policy - The market is anticipating potential Fed rate cuts, with the expectation that the die has been cast for the upcoming meeting [12][14] - Inflation numbers next week will be crucial, as they are expected to show price increases flowing through to the data, potentially complicating the Fed's job [10] - The market is learning not to overreact to policy initiatives, as several anticipated negative impacts (tariffs, deportations, OBB passage) have not materialized [15][16]

Welcome back. Economic activity seeing quote little to no growth in recent weeks. That according to the Fed's latest Facebook survey.Investors now looking ahead to this Friday's jobs report for more clarity on where this economy is going. Joining me now to Slack. He is Apollo partner and chief economist.And I mispronounced your last name and you I hope will accept my sincere apologies for that. >> Of course. All good.I've heard many variants of my name over the last many many years. So >> the the correct on ...

🇺🇸 Rate cuts probability just hit 97%Trillions will flow into the marketThis is not the time to be bearish.Just survive September and load upon altcoins because market is aboutto go parabolic in Q4 of 2025. ...

So, let's get to Steve Leeman, who is with one of the potential Fed picks, who seemed to have gotten more popular uh as time has been going by and and even before he was mentioned, we had talked about him and and talking about cuts way before that. Uh Chris Waller, hi Steve. >> Yes, we had uh Joe and I am joined by Fed Governor Chris Waller, who because he's right here, he's my pick right now.Thanks for joining us, Governor Waller. Um I want to start off with what uh is is among the most interesting things ...

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices surged to a record above $3,500 an ounce, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1][4] - Spot gold briefly exceeded $3,508 in New York trading, marking a significant increase of approximately one-third in 2025, outperforming most major assets [1][16] - UBS strategist Joni Teves indicated that the rise in gold prices is linked to increased allocations by investors anticipating Fed rate cuts [2] Group 2: Market Influences - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks at Jackson Hole hinted at potential rate cuts, reinforcing market expectations [3] - A cooler labor market has further solidified the case for easier monetary policy, with the upcoming jobs report expected to provide clearer direction [3] - Wall Street experienced a decline in stock prices, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 441 points, contributing to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [7] Group 3: Silver Market Performance - Silver prices also rose, surpassing $40 an ounce for the first time since 2011, with nearly 40% gains year-to-date [3][6] - The demand for silver is bolstered by its dual role as a safe-haven asset and its industrial applications, particularly in clean energy [6] Group 4: Investor Behavior - ETF buying has increased for seven consecutive months, leading to a reduction in available inventories in London and elevated lease rates [6] - Seasonal trends indicate September is historically a weak month for equities, with the S&P 500 averaging a 4.2% decline over the past five years, prompting a shift towards gold [16]

Market Strategy - Capital preservation should be a top priority, especially with upcoming rate cuts [1] - Avoid round tripping profits by chasing dips that could decline another 20% [1]

Monetary Policy & Inflation - The market expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points next month, with an 88% probability [5][6] - The Fed's dual mandate of full employment and price stability is in focus, particularly the conflict between a weakening labor market and persistent inflation around 2.9% [4][11][12] - Inflation is stuck slightly above the target, and it's uncertain whether it will decrease soon [9] - The pace of rate cuts is crucial; a slow and steady approach is favored, aligning with a softening labor market while respecting the inflation backdrop [8][9][10] - The market is closely watching break-even inflation rates for signs of unease, but the bond market is largely holding together [16] Labor Market - The labor market is showing clear signs of deceleration, and the Fed is concerned about it losing momentum [3][8] - The labor report next week is crucial in determining the Fed's next steps after the initial 25 basis point cut [4][5][6] - It's important to determine if the labor market slowdown is due to structural issues (AI, immigration) or cyclical factors [5] Fed Independence - The market is not seriously pricing in a loss of Fed independence, despite recent political drama [22] - Institutional guardrails are believed to protect Fed independence, which is crucial for market confidence and controlling long-end rates [21][23][24] - Maintaining Fed credibility is essential, especially with pressure to ease rates amid persistent inflation [15]

Core Viewpoint - Vornado Realty's preferred shares are expected to benefit from anticipated rate cuts and the company's strategy to sell non-core assets [1] Company Summary - Vornado Realty (NYSE: VNO) is focusing on enhancing the value of its preferred shares, particularly the 4.45% Series O cumulative preferreds (NYSE: VNO.PR.O) [1] - The company is actively pursuing the disposal of non-core assets to strengthen its financial position [1] Industry Summary - The equity market is characterized by significant daily price fluctuations that can lead to substantial long-term wealth creation or destruction [1] - Pacifica Yield is targeting long-term wealth creation by investing in undervalued high-growth companies, high-dividend stocks, REITs, and green energy firms [1]

Market Performance & Economic Outlook - S&P 500 earnings are up 10% year-over-year, and NASDAQ 100 earnings are up 34% year-over-year, indicating strength in the US market [1] - Concerns about Fed independence are causing a slight sell-off at the long end of the curve [2] - The Fed's influence is strongest on the two-year rate, which has decreased by approximately 7-8 basis points [3] Monetary Policy & Interest Rates - The Fed only controls the short-term lending rate, and excessive cuts could lead to a steepening of the yield curve, potentially resulting in higher longer-term interest rates [3] - There is potential for the Fed to implement two or three rate cuts without significantly impacting the long end of the curve, even with inflation around 3% [4] - Lower rates on money markets and challenges in generating income from interest rates and bonds make equity income more attractive [5] Investment Strategy - The ITWO ETF, a Russell 2000 high-income ETF focused on small caps, is highlighted as a pick [4] - Small caps are more leveraged and have shorter maturity, making them more sensitive to and potentially benefiting more from rate cuts compared to large caps [5]