The uncertainty over inflation trends calls for “flexibility” in policy-making, European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn told Finnish newspaper Helsingin Sanomat https://t.co/payTslOEZJ ...

Now that Donald Trump’s tariffs have taken effect, economists have mostly expected inflation to drift upwards. Surprisingly, that shift has not yet materialised https://t.co/SaHW8yJO1a ...

Well, let's stay on the market, bring in unlimited CEO and CIO Bob Elliot, the gold bug I mentioned before, but let's start with the Fed and what's going on there. You think Powell's caving. >> Well, I I think basically when you look at the change in his statement at Jackson Hole versus where he was just a few weeks before in the presser, it seems like there was a pretty material shift in the positioning uh particularly getting to a a focus on the labor market.I don't know how many times in the last presser ...

Interest Rate Cut Expectations - Partners Group believes a rate cut in September is highly likely, potentially exceeding market expectations of 85-87% due to labor market weakness [3][4] - Encouraging PCE data, particularly stable services inflation around 25% year-over-year, supports the likelihood of a September rate cut [6] - A rate cut could cushion the labor market and support consumer spending [14] AI Investment and Growth - While growth rates of AI beneficiaries like Nvidia may be slowing from over 200% year-over-year, hyperscaler capex is projected to be $400 billion next year, driving stock performance [8][9] - The total addressable market growth in AI will materialize through investments in data centers, connectivity, cooling, and related services [10] - Business application software is expected to outpace semiconductor growth within the AI sector, indicating a broadening of the AI trade [12] Broadening Market Opportunities - The broadening of the AI trade extends beyond semiconductors, with opportunities in business application software, including those in private markets [12][13] - Private equity middle market growth companies are seen as having significant potential, with earnings growth and margins exceeding those in public markets [15]

Monetary Policy - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly hinted at potential interest rate cuts soon [1] - The Fed anticipates that inflation resulting from tariffs is likely to be temporary [1]

Market Trends - Bitcoin dips below $110,000 as PCE inflation report shows prices edging higher [1] Industry Partnerships & Data Integration - Chainlink and Pyth Network partner with the US Department of Commerce to bring official economic data on-chain for the first time [1] Geopolitical Factors & Opinions - Eric Trump praises China's "unbelievable mark on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies" and its pivotal role in the future of digital finance [1] Media & Sponsorship - @JennSanasie hosts "CoinDesk Daily" [1] - @MidnightNtwrk is a sponsor of the CoinDesk media network [1]

Morning David. But it's a real mixed bag on University of Michigan. Now remember this is a final read.Couple weeks ago we had the initial numbers and there's been a lot of changes. The initial number for headline was 58.6%. It moves down four basis points to 58.2%.Wrong direction. Sequentially lower weakest since well just May of this year. But current conditions exact opposite.61.7% replaces 60.9% sequentially higher best since July expectations sequentially lower and we lost ground from 57.5% to 55.2%. So ...

Monetary Policy & Inflation - The former Kansas City Fed President suggests the court should sort out the authority of the president to fire someone, emphasizing the need for due process [2] - The analyst observes that inflation is at 3%, one percentage point above the target, while the Fed is considering cutting rates [7] - The PCA inflation has tipped up slightly, and unemployment remains at 42% [9] - With inflation at 3%, real interest rates are approximately 15%, which is close to neutral [10] - There is no case for cutting rates in a rising inflation environment [11] - The recent budget reconciliation bill is expansionary, adding another $2 trillion of debt [12] - Cutting rates in an environment of rising inflation and low unemployment poses a risk to the Fed's appearance [14] Labor Market - A Fed governor suggests the labor market is weak and about to turn negative based on extrapolations of revisions [8] - Initial claims were down, indicating a relatively stable labor market [10] Fed Actions & Considerations - The Fed may be facing pressure from elsewhere on the FOMC to cut rates [13] - It may be time for the Fed to wait and see rather than signaling rate cuts [11]

US consumer spending rose in July by the most in four months, indicating resilient demand in the face of stubborn inflation https://t.co/EKfOeVJiTD ...

Labor Market & Inflation - The labor market is slowing down, potentially due to headwinds from tariffs and trade wars [2][7] - PCE inflation is at 29%, the highest level since February, while the Fed's target is 2% [3] - Inflation expectations one year out are predicting 34%, significantly higher than the 2% target [9] - A quarter of a million less jobs than previously expected in May and June [6] Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - The Fed faces a dilemma: whether to focus on the weaker labor market (suggesting rate cuts) or rising inflation (suggesting rate hikes) [4] - Chris Waller suggests focusing on the labor market [4] - The market is pricing in more rate cuts than the Fed may be able to deliver due to persistent inflation [8][10] - GDP on the second read came in at 33% [5] Market Dynamics - The stock market's performance is largely driven by the AI story and the "Magnificent 7," which constitute 40% of the index [11][12] - Nvidia alone accounts for 8% of the S&P 500, an unprecedented concentration for a single stock in the last 50 years [12][13] - The bond market narrative is focused on inflation and the labor market, presenting an inconsistent picture compared to the stock market [13] - The yield curve is steepening, partly due to inflation and fiscal challenges, raising concerns that the Fed might accept permanently higher inflation [9][13]