Market Expectations & Fed Policy - The market anticipates a potential rate cut, with initial euphoria possibly waning due to comments from a Fed president and resilient PMI data [2] - Expectations for a September rate cut have decreased to approximately 70% [3] - The market is awaiting Chair Powell's speech at 10:00 a m Eastern time for clarity on the Fed's stance, particularly regarding the labor market and inflation [1][3][4] - The investor community is particularly interested in whether the Fed will prioritize the jobs market over inflation, considering tariff-related price increases as potentially "transitory" [7] Economic Data & Analysis - Despite firming inflation, significant price increases expected from initial tariff deals have not materialized [6] - There have been massive revisions to jobs reports, including a large yearly revision of nearly 1 million jobs earlier in the year [6] - Carson Group's research indicates that historically, if the Fed cuts rates in September, the market tends to be down 1% the following month but up almost 13% the following year [9] Investment Strategies & Recommendations - The analysis suggests diversifying risk portfolios globally, by sector, and by factor, with a potential shift towards value investing [11] - Gold is suggested as a potential hedge against a weakening US dollar, especially as the Fed potentially enters a second phase of easing with GDP running at approximately 2% [12][14] - The expectation is for the Fed to implement a 25 basis points cut, primarily influenced by the labor market [11] Future Outlook - The key question is whether the market's expectation of two rate cuts by 2025 will be met or exceeded [10] - The US debt situation and its impact on the dollar's strength are significant factors influencing investment decisions [13]

ECB officials are increasingly convinced they can keep interest rates unchanged in September https://t.co/53Hcv0LZy7 ...

Bond investors are heading into Friday’s much-anticipated Jerome Powell speech largely expecting the Federal Reserve chair will indicate policymakers will start cutting interest rates next month. https://t.co/J9zuSxzk89 ...

Powell’s appearance is expected to provide insight into whether the Fed will slacken its monetary policy and cut interest rates, which have been held between 4.25% and 4.5% since December. (Photo: Chip Somodevilla via Getty Images) https://t.co/PXaEMRs7fn https://t.co/09gsh6yLOG ...

Market Trends - Cryptocurrency prices, including Bitcoin, experienced a decline [1] - The decline is attributed to Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack's stance against immediate interest rate cuts [1] Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's potential decision on interest rates is influencing the cryptocurrency market [1]

Well, um, when I watched, uh, the chair at his press conference, uh, and read others people's comments, it seemed like the decision not to cut was in part dependent upon the solid jobs picture. Um, and that was what they were presented with at the time of the meeting. Um, and as Kane said, when the facts change, I change my opinion.uh and that's why I suggested that well in fact the facts had changed and you know the way to clean it up I think would have been to immediately uh follow through with a cut. Um ...

There's a lot of data we're going to get between now and September. And I walk into every meeting with an open mind about what the right thing to do is. But with the data I have right now and with the information I have, if the meeting was tomorrow, I would not see a case for reducing interest rates. ...

Powell’s appearance is expected to provide insight into whether the Fed will slacken its monetary policy and cut interest rates, which have been held between 4.25% and 4.5% since December. (Photo: Chip Somodevilla via Getty Images) https://t.co/dolHfCgPlP https://t.co/PYpUVFLiTu ...

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said she wouldn’t support lowering interest rates if central bankers were making a policy decision tomorrow https://t.co/K6qOrEgRTk ...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers a must watch speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on Aug. 22 at 10 am ET. Powell has been under pressure from President Donald Trump to cut interest rates. "Bloomberg Surveillance" has special live coverage beginning at 9 am ET. Tom Keene and Lisa Abramowitz are your hosts. ...