We do have breaking news. Um, just moments ago, the federal appeals court does not allow Donald Trump to remove Lisa Cook from her post. I'll just read from their order.Upon consideration of the emergency motion for stay pending appeal and administrative stay, the opposition's thereto and the reply. The motion for leave to participate as amicus cure filed by the separation of powers clinic and the lodge. Yes. Yes. Yes.This is the order. The motions for leave to participate as uh amicus cure be granted. The ...

Federal appeals court rejects for now Trump's bid to fire Lisa Cook from Fed board, allowing her to participate in Tuesday's meeting on interest rateshttps://t.co/qFttg31ukp ...

Senate confirms Trump's top economist Stephen Miran to serve on the Fed's Board of Governors, a day before a crucial meeting to discuss interest rateshttps://t.co/scGeQfkkdg ...

Senate confirms Trump's top economist Stephen Miran to serve on the Fed's Board of Governors, a day before a crucial meeting to discuss interest rateshttps://t.co/P5h8ZQZmvC ...

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in navigating a rapidly changing economy with limited tools, under political pressure [1] - US economy is a complex mix of adaptation and experimentation, making data interpretation difficult [4] Immigration Impact - St Louis Fed research suggests that slowing immigration may cause the US labor market data to appear weaker than it is [2] - Previously, the US needed approximately 150,000 new jobs monthly to maintain expansion, but with reduced immigration, the break-even rate might be closer to 50,000 new jobs monthly [2] Trade and Tariffs - Boston Fed indicates that peak tariff uncertainty might be behind us, which is positive for small and medium-sized businesses [3] - Easier access to credit outweighs lingering trade worries for small and medium-sized businesses [3] AI and Automation - San Francisco Fed found that companies facing more trade uncertainty are adopting new tech and automation faster [3] - Firms are automating to mitigate policy shocks [4]

Monetary Policy & Inflation - The Fed faces a stagflation-type scenario with high inflation due to supply shocks (tariffs) that may weaken the economy [2] - The Fed is considering a presumptive 25 basis point rate cut amidst concerns about inflation expectations [2] - The central bank should normally look through temporary supply shocks to inflation, but the Fed is worried about inflation expectations [3][4] - If inflation expectations rise and become anchored, it could lead to incrementally higher inflation over time [6] - Compromised central bank independence could lead to expectations of easier monetary policy, causing inflation and higher interest rates [7][8] - The Fed's concern about inflation expectations may make them reluctant to ease as fast as they normally would [5][10] Central Bank Independence - Attacks on the Fed, such as the Lisa Cook situation, and potential political influence are concerning [4][9] - The appointment of someone still working in the White House to the Fed is unprecedented [4] - Examples like Turkey and Argentina show that compromised central bank independence can lead to high interest rates and distrust in statistics [9][10]

🇺🇸 FOMC: The Federal Reserve will make a decision on interest rates this Wednesday.What do you think they’ll decide? 👇 https://t.co/92pWNK9Lnh ...

Fed's going to kick off its two-day policy meeting tomorrow. Joining us now, former Federal Reserve Board nominee, Judy Shelton. She's a senior fellow at the Independent Institute and a former economic adviser to President Trump in his first term.It's good to see you, Judy. It's been a while. Uh it's I'm reading one of your opeds from right when the election happened and you said, "Now that Donald Trump is the president-elect, expect warnings about the dangers of compromising the independence of the Federal ...

Interest Rate Expectations - The market widely anticipates a 25 basis points (0.25%) interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week [1] - The debate centers on whether the Fed will signal one or two more rate cuts after September [2] - The market is pricing in rate cuts that could bring the federal funds rate down to approximately 3% by the end of next year [7] Labor Market & Economic Outlook - Softening labor market indicators, with payroll employment growth at only 30,000 per month in the last three months, are a key concern driving potential rate cuts [5] - The market generally agrees with the view that downside risks to the labor market outweigh upside risks to inflation, justifying rate cuts [11] - There's a possibility that steeper rate cuts could lead to a reacceleration of inflation and a deterioration in the dollar's value [10] Fed Policy & Internal Dynamics - Most members of the committee are expected to align with the Chairman's direction on rates, with disagreements primarily focused on timing [15][16] - The influence of a newly appointed member from the administration is expected to be limited during the upcoming meeting [19][21] - The degree of disagreement among members tends to be small, as everyone is evaluating the same economic information [22]

🇺🇸 TRUMP: "Too late" on interest rates. Must cut now and bigger than previously expected. 👀 https://t.co/1FbgCtRPrA ...