文 ｜ 华鹏伟 林劼 我们认为光伏板块值得重点关注，并基于产业链价格、行业需求预期、供给侧政策和产业细节变 化四个维度看多光伏板块。产业链价格触底回升且企业行为的变化对产业链价格形成支撑；在 2 0 3 0年全国可再生能源消费目标的指引下需求具有韧性；供给侧改革政策预期对于推动去产能和 产品效率提升具有支撑；产业中技术升级还在持续，产品质量的升级可以预见，甚至部分企业的 转型可以期待。在上述四个方面的影响下，我们认为光伏板块在今年会出现明显的变化，行业的 变化也将带来明显的投资机会。 ▍ 产业链价格触底回升，关键是企业行为发生了变化。 在装机旺季来临之后，我们看到光伏产业链的价格有不同程度的触底上升，根据SMM，分布式 TOPCo n组件价格已从0 . 6 5元/W上涨至0 . 7 1元/W；光伏胶膜价格从0 . 9 2万元/吨上涨至1 . 1 4万元/ 吨；光伏玻璃价格从1 2元/m2上涨至1 4元/m2。2 0 2 4Q2以来，光伏产业链价格下探到现金成本以 下，对整个光伏产业链的盈利造成了比较大的冲击，持续的现金流的压力也改变了企业的行为。 2 0 2 4Q3以来，大部分光伏产业链的企业采取了一定的收缩 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests an "Overweight" rating for the brokerage sector, indicating a favorable outlook for investment in this area [2]. Core Insights - The capital market is expected to stabilize and improve, driven by the implementation of the new "National Nine Articles" policy framework, which will enhance the entry of medium to long-term funds into the market. This is anticipated to positively impact the fundamentals and valuation recovery of the brokerage sector [1]. - The report highlights that the brokerage sector's profitability is likely to see a significant year-on-year growth of 44% in Q1 2025, supported by increased trading activity, with the average daily trading volume reaching 16,764 billion yuan, a 77.6% increase year-on-year [1]. - The ongoing supply-side reforms in the industry aim to build first-class investment banks and enhance the competitiveness of brokerages. Mergers and acquisitions are being pursued to improve operational efficiency and market leadership [2]. Summary by Sections Market Conditions - The brokerage sector is experiencing a recovery in trading activity, with a notable increase in daily trading volumes, which is expected to support profitability growth [1]. - The report anticipates that the recovery in the capital market will lead to better-than-expected improvements in the fundamentals of brokerages [1]. Industry Reforms - Supply-side reforms are accelerating, focusing on creating top-tier investment banks and enhancing the strength of the brokerage industry. This includes several ongoing merger cases [2]. - The current valuation of the brokerage sector is at a historical low, with a price-to-book ratio of 1.44, indicating limited downside and potential for upward valuation adjustments [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends increasing holdings in the brokerage sector, emphasizing the potential for exceeding expectations in fundamental improvements and the benefits from ongoing supply-side reforms. Specific stock picks include Huatai Securities and GF Securities, with additional focus on Northeast Securities, Guolian Minsheng, and Tianfeng Securities [2].