廖市无双：地缘冲击下，中线调整是否开启？20260308 摘要 市场处于震荡夯实期，预计 3 月中下旬（春分前后）权重指数企稳，上 证 4,000 点支撑强，空间有限；中小成长指数因顶背离及财报压力，调 整或持续至 4 月下旬。 科技成长与有色板块共振走弱：芯片、中证 500/1,000 确认日线 MACD 顶背离；白银出现"A 杀"（跌幅超 60%）构筑顶部，需警惕有 色板块一季度形成月线级顶分型。 能源结构切换：地缘冲突推升旧能源（石油石化、煤炭）逻辑，但石油 石化短期偏离均线过大不宜追高；新能源侧重电力与电网设备，其拥挤 度尚可，回调是建仓机会。 红利与防御品种占优：银行板块完成五浪下跌且出现底背离，具备 6%- 8%反弹空间；"中字头"低位红利标的及"现金流"主题表现优于红利 ETF，发挥压舱石作用。 券商板块处于"空头陷阱"末端，赔率极高，不建议减仓；恒生科技指 数在 500 天线（4,830-4,850）支撑有效，但缺乏反转动力，需通过 "二次探底"完成修复。 3 月配置策略：坚持"大盘价值+顺周期"组合，行业打分化工、通信、 煤炭、石油居前；操作上维持中线仓位，控制组合弹性，等待 3 月下旬 结 ...

2026年03月08日 = " 相关研究 《关注券商板块低点配置机会——非银金 融行业周报（2026/2/24-2026/2/27)》 2026/03/01 《高弹性标签助力板块"破圈",看好资负 两端改善趋势 ——2026 年保险行业策略 报告》 2025/11/18 《证券行业 2026年投资策略：权益浪潮 下的券商机遇：财富扩容，国际增效》 2025/11/17 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjq@swsresearch.com 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 重申重视券商板块配置窗 非银金融行业周报（2026/3/2-2026/3/6） 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 时充/行业市 券商：本周申万证券 II 指数收跌 3.18%，跑输沪深 300 指数 2.11pct。短线交易新规强化对大股 ● 东&董监高 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 策略聚焦|涨价为矛，增加低估值敞口 来源：中信证券研究 文|裘翔 高玉森 陈泽平 遥远 张铭楷 陈峰 中东局势从短期激烈冲突转向持续的小规模混乱，高估值板块的情绪可能持续降温，低估值因子接下来 的相对优势会逐步体现。从合理化利润率的视角看，中国具备竞争优势的资源和传统制造业重估空间仍 然很大；站在不少行业和指数层面，制约上行空间的不只是静态估值，同样也是利润率；"十五五"期 间，我们认为推动企业提质增效的政策组合设计是主旋律。配置上，涨价为矛，同时增加低估值敞口的 暴露。 中东局势从短期激烈冲突 转向持续的小规模混乱 短期伊朗国内政局依然不够明朗，是否会出现军方完全控制局面的情况、是否能形成具备全国控制力的 新领导，还是可能会演变成伊拉克的松散模式，依然存在较大变数。目前来看，伊朗内部不同官员、军 队发言人传递出来的说法和信号并不统一，可能意味着伊朗的军事行动暂时依然缺乏统一领导。不过， 考虑到伊朗军事能力在战争初期遭到巨大损伤，美国目前也尚未计划派遣地面部队，预计后续军事冲突 本身的烈度有限。根据美国犹太国家安全研究所（JINSA）的 ...

非银金融 2026 年 03 月 08 日 相关研究 《关注券商板块低点配置机会——非银金 融行业周报（2026/2/24-2026/2/27）》 2026/03/01 《高弹性标签助力板块"破圈"，看好资负 两端改善趋势——2026 年保险行业策略 报告》 2025/11/18 《证券行业 2026 年投资策略：权益浪潮 下的券商机遇：财富扩容，国际增效》 2025/11/17 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjq@swsresearch.com 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 重申重视券商板块配置窗口期 看好 ——非银金融行业周报（2026/3/2-2026/3/6） 本期投资提示： 行 业 及 产 业 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行业点评 图表目录 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 ...

Core Views - The report highlights the dual drivers of liabilities and assets in the insurance sector, with significant elasticity in equity performance [2][3] - The brokerage sector is expected to maintain its favorable conditions, with low valuations presenting strategic allocation opportunities [4][10] Insurance: Dual Drivers of Liabilities and Assets - The insurance sector is benefiting from the migration of household deposits, with a notable increase in new individual insurance policies at the beginning of 2026, supported by low baselines and the appeal of dividend insurance in a bullish market [6][20] - The insurance sector's total premium income is projected to grow by 9.1% year-on-year in 2025, with significant contributions from both individual and bank insurance channels [21][25] - The average price-to-earnings value (PEV) for listed insurance companies has dropped to 0.78 times, indicating a favorable risk-reward ratio for investors [6][69] Brokerage: Sustained Prosperity and Low Valuations - The brokerage sector is expected to see a 52.3% and 29.6% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a projected weighted return on equity (ROE) of 10% in 2026 [6][10] - The report recommends focusing on brokerage firms with low valuations and high contributions from wealth management, such as Huatai Securities and GF Securities, as well as leading firms like Guotai Junan and CITIC Securities [6][10] - The market's active trading environment is anticipated to continue benefiting brokerage firms, with significant growth in retail brokerage and wealth management services [75][82]

Macro Insights - The U.S. private credit market has experienced increased volatility since 2025, with some funds facing redemption waves, raising market concerns. Despite this, the expected recovery of the U.S. economy in 2026 may prevent these issues from escalating into systemic financial risks [3][4] - Post-Spring Festival, there has been a notable increase in travel and consumer spending, with a 5.9% year-on-year growth in cross-regional movement and a 19% increase in domestic tourism during the holiday period. The real estate market shows signs of stabilization, particularly in second-hand housing transactions [3][4] Market Strategy - The A-share market has seen a rebound with the Shanghai Composite Index rising nearly 2%. There was a net inflow of approximately 800 billion yuan in trading funds, indicating a recovery in market activity. Fund preferences have shifted towards sectors like AI and price-sensitive chains [4][5] - The geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S.-Iran conflict, have led to significant fluctuations in asset prices, with Brent crude oil prices rising by 14% and European gas prices increasing by over 50%. This has heightened concerns about economic stagflation [5] Real Estate Sector - Data from January and February indicates a decline in new housing supply and demand, while second-hand housing transactions remain resilient. However, there are signs of weakening prices. The introduction of new policies in Shanghai may boost market confidence and facilitate inventory reduction [6][7] Insurance Sector - The escalating situation in the Middle East has created substantial risks for shipping in the region, leading to major insurers issuing cancellation notices for war risks. This is expected to significantly increase insurance premiums and shipping costs [7] Renewable Energy Sector - Wind power demand in 2025 exceeded expectations, with a total installed capacity of 130.8 GW, a 49.9% year-on-year increase. The growth in onshore wind capacity was particularly strong, while offshore wind demand is anticipated to be released gradually [8] Financial Sector - The brokerage sector has been underperforming, with a mismatch between earnings growth and valuations. However, there are opportunities for recovery, particularly as many brokerages are expected to achieve record profits in 2025 and continue this trend into 2026 [11]

证券行业分析及重点标的推荐 行业研究 政策暖风与基本面共振进行时，证券行业迎来 ROE 与估 值双击新周期 ➢ 政策暖风频吹，杠杆松绑驱动 ROE 中枢上移： "十五五"规划 明确资本市场新定位，监管逻辑从"防风险"转向"促发展"，拟 对优质券商适度放宽资本运作限制。当前国内券商杠杆率显著低于 国际投行，随着风险控制指标体系优化及杠杆天花板有序上移，行 业资本使用效率将大幅改善。头部机构凭借雄厚资本与成熟风控， 最具扩表潜力，有望通过重资本业务抢占份额。政策"铁三角"支 撑下，行业 ROE 中枢有望突破 10%，迈入新一轮上升通道，开启从 "交易驱动"向"资本+智力"双轮驱动的转型新篇章。 ➢ 并购整合加速，行业集中度迈向新台阶：监管层明确提出培育 全球一流投行目标，并购重组成为供给侧改革核心路径。在"做优 做强"主旋律下，国联并购民生、国泰君安合并海通等案例验证了 资源整合的高效性。预计央地国资将成为主要推手，推动行业从同 质化竞争向差异化、专业化进阶。通过客户共享、业务互补及后台 协同降本，行业集中度有望在 2026 年提升至 CR5 接近 50%。具备强 大资本实力与跨周期经营能力的龙头券商将持续获得政 ...

资料来源：Wind,中原证券 -12% -5% 2% 9% 16% 22% 29% 36% 2025.03 2025.07 2025.10 2026.03 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 4,122.68 | -1.43 | | 深证成指 | | 14,022.39 | -3.07 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,655.90 | -1.54 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 4,540.70 | -1.90 | | 中证 | 500 | 8,281.61 | -4.35 | | 中证 | 1000 | 6,116.76 | 0.33 | | 国证 | 2000 | 7,801.23 | 0.58 | | 资料来源：Wind ...

证券研究报告|行业深度研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 03 月 03 日 [Table_Title] 银行股价复盘：与券商股行情对比及六轮大跌解析 [Table_Title2] 银行 ► 银行股与券商股行情比较 启动结束顺序：2011 年后，银行股启动通常早于券商股； 2014 年后，因券商弹性被市场熟知，其行情往往更早结束。 涨幅差异：除特定阶段外，券商股涨幅通常是银行股的 1.5 倍以上。 2016-2018 年独立于券商的银行股行情：上涨动力源于地 产周期复苏、息差回升、资产质量改善、对异地展业、同业业 务监管收紧带来的结构性利好，以及并购新规对中小盘股票利 空下的蓝筹价值风格。 [Table_Summary] 慢牛特性下银行股的下行逻辑比其上涨更具研究价值。当 宏观预期悲观、信用环境收紧、结构性风险爆发三大因素共振 时，银行板块通常面临显著的估值调整压力。此外，行业层面 其他行业对于银行传统业务的渗透，以及银行业自身资本监管 的加强也会重创银行估值；另外美联储加息带来的人民币贬值 往往会强化利空因素。 ► 银行股特性：高 ROE、高稳定性、慢牛 基本面特征：盈利波动性远低于沪深 30 ...

Company Research - Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) is expected to see a significant increase in revenue, with a target price of $159.00, representing an 88.8% upside from the current price of $84.23[6] - Citic Securities (6030) has a target price of HKD 33.80, indicating a 20.5% upside from the current price of HKD 28.06[11] - Huatai Securities (6886) has a target price of HKD 20.33, reflecting a 21.2% upside from the current price of HKD 16.78[25] - CICC (3908) has a target price of HKD 25.81, suggesting a 27.4% upside from the current price of HKD 20.26[30] - Guotai Junan (2611) has a target price of HKD 19.66, indicating a 23.3% upside from the current price of HKD 15.94[37] Industry Commentary - The securities industry is entering a new cycle characterized by a dual boost in ROE and valuation, driven by favorable policies and improving fundamentals[45] - The average daily trading volume in the market increased by 71.1% year-on-year, significantly boosting the performance of listed securities firms[48] - The industry is expected to see a rise in concentration, with the CR5 approaching 50% by 2026, as mergers and acquisitions become a core path for supply-side reform[47]