证 券 研 究 报 告 证券行业周报（20250818-20250824） 推荐（维持） 证券公司分类评价制度完善，"扶优限劣"导向强化 ❑ 事项： 8 月 22 日，证监会发布《关于修改〈证券公司分类监管规定〉的决定》。 该次修改将标题由《证券公司分类监管规定》调整为《证券公司分类评价规定》， 与以分类评价为主的规定内容相适应。 新规对业务发展指标的调整体现了鲜明的"扶优限劣"和差异化发展导向。 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 联系人：杜婉桢 邮箱：duwanzhen@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 在风险与合规的评价上，新规的奖惩机制更加精细化和有力。 新规的实施将引导行业资源向经营稳健、专业能力突出、积极服务实体经济的 证券公司倾斜。预计行业分化将加剧，具备显著优势的龙头券商，以及在财富 管理、投资银行等细分赛道已形成特色化优势的中小券商将受益。 行业研究 证券Ⅱ 2025 年 08 月 26 日 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 53 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Securities Index has decreased by 1.3% as of 11:15, with the Hong Kong Securities ETF (513090) trading volume nearing 8 billion [1] - The Hong Kong Securities ETF has seen net inflows for 16 consecutive trading days, with a total net inflow of 11.1 billion in July, bringing the latest scale to 22.8 billion [1] - Huachuang Securities indicates that listed brokerages that have released performance forecasts or reports for the first half of 2025 show a year-on-year net profit increase of over 50%, highlighting potential investment opportunities in supply-side reforms and industry consolidation [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Securities ETF (513090) is the only ETF product tracking the Hong Kong Securities Index, including 16 stocks such as CITIC Securities, Hong Kong Exchanges, and Guotai Junan [1] - The ETF supports T+0 trading and has a management fee rate of only 0.15% per year, facilitating investors' access to the Hong Kong stock market brokerage sector [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Shentong Express plans to acquire 100% equity of Daniao Logistics for a cash consideration of 362 million yuan, which is a strategic move to enhance its service offerings in the high-end express delivery market [1][3]. - Daniao Logistics, a subsidiary of Cainiao Group, specializes in quality express delivery and reverse logistics services, operating a network that covers nearly 300 cities in China and providing high-certainty delivery services such as same-day and next-morning delivery [2][3]. - The acquisition will allow Shentong to form a dual business matrix of "economical express + quality express," enabling it to capture emerging opportunities in regional distribution and instant retail while optimizing its product structure for a differentiated advantage [3][4]. Group 2 - Daniao Logistics is projected to achieve over 12 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, with a significantly higher average revenue per package compared to Shentong, indicating a complementary business positioning between the two companies [3]. - The acquisition aligns with the recent regulatory push against cutthroat competition in the express delivery industry, as Shentong aims to transition from price competition to value competition, enhancing service quality and operational efficiency [4]. - Shentong plans to implement advanced delivery solutions, including deploying 2,000 unmanned vehicles to strengthen its end-delivery capabilities, which is part of its strategy to deepen value creation in response to industry trends [4]. Group 3 - The forecast for Shentong Express indicates a potential increase in market share and profitability due to capacity enhancements and industry growth, with projected net profits of 1.29 billion, 1.6 billion, and 2.01 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively [5]. - The company is expected to face challenges in profitability due to intense price competition in 2025, which may impact its earnings despite the anticipated growth in business volume [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company's performance and forecasts are in line with expectations, accelerating the implementation of a three-year strategy, which is expected to seize opportunities for building a first-class investment bank and achieve better-than-expected growth [1]. Investment Highlights - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 19.60 yuan, corresponding to a 1.8x PB for 2025. In Q1 2025, revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders are projected at 7.56 billion and 3.02 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 4.8% and 84.9%, consistent with performance forecasts [2]. - The weighted average ROE increased by 1.14 percentage points to 2.44%. The acceleration of supply-side reforms in the industry and the company's ongoing three-year strategy implementation are expected to lead to better-than-expected growth [2]. - The recovery in investment and the high growth of wealth management business are driving profit growth. The brokerage, investment banking, asset management, and investment businesses achieved year-on-year growth of 53%, 59%, 19%, and 94%, respectively. Investment income contributed 68% of the revenue increase, while brokerage business contributed 30% [2]. - The high growth in investment business is primarily due to improved investment returns from a low base, with an annualized investment return rate of 3.3%, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year. The scale of financial assets decreased by 9% year-on-year to 386.3 billion yuan [2]. Strategic Progress - The company is accelerating the implementation of its three-year strategy, aiming to seize opportunities for building a first-class investment bank. The new "National Nine Articles" focuses on returning to the essence of the industry and strengthening leading institutions through mergers, reorganizations, and organizational innovations [3]. - The company has made significant progress in its three-year strategy, enhancing its "five-in-one" business model and continuously improving its professional capabilities. The institutional business has launched the "Galaxy Tiangong 2.0" platform to deepen and expand its service system [3]. - The investment banking business is undergoing professional reforms, showing gradual results, while the international business has officially launched the "Galaxy Overseas" brand, aiming to become a modern investment bank based in Asia [3]. - The new round of capital market reforms has accelerated since the beginning of the year, providing the company with opportunities to expedite the construction of a first-class investment bank and achieve better-than-expected growth [3].

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities reported strong Q1 2025 results, with net profit of 6.55 billion and revenue of 17.76 billion, reflecting year-on-year increases of 32.0% and 29.1% respectively, driven by robust brokerage and proprietary trading performance [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, CITIC Securities achieved a net profit of 6.55 billion, up 32.0% year-on-year, and revenue of 17.76 billion, up 29.1% year-on-year, with a non-annualized ROE of 2.37%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points [1] - The company's main revenue sources in Q1 2025 included brokerage (3.33 billion), investment banking (0.98 billion), asset management (2.56 billion), net interest income (-0.20 billion), and net investment income (8.94 billion), with respective year-on-year growth rates of 36.2%, 12.2%, 8.7%, -162%, and 41.2% [1] - Credit impairment losses in Q1 2025 were 0.32 billion, compared to a reversal of 0.02 billion in the same period last year, primarily due to increased impairment losses on lent funds and repurchased financial assets [1] Group 2: Investment and Brokerage Activities - As of the end of Q1 2025, CITIC Securities had a financial investment scale of 964.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.9%, with an operating leverage of 4.63x [2] - The company's net investment income for Q1 2025 was 8.94 billion, up 41.2% year-on-year, with an annualized investment return of 3.81%, an increase of 0.62 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Brokerage income for Q1 2025 was 3.33 billion, up 36.2% year-on-year, while the average daily trading volume of equity funds increased by 72% year-on-year [3] Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - CITIC Securities' market share in the refinancing underwriting segment increased significantly, with a refinancing underwriting scale of 24.1 billion, up 179% year-on-year, and a market share of 32.6%, up 14.5 percentage points [3] - The company has a strong project reserve, with 9 IPOs and 38 refinancing projects under review as of April 29, 2025, ranking second and first in the industry respectively [3] - The company is expected to benefit from industry supply-side reforms, with projected net profits of 23.81 billion, 25.96 billion, and 28.29 billion for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 9%, and 9% [4]

Investment Rating - The report suggests an "Overweight" rating for the brokerage sector, indicating a favorable outlook for investment in this area [2]. Core Insights - The capital market is expected to stabilize and improve, driven by the implementation of the new "National Nine Articles" policy framework, which will enhance the entry of medium to long-term funds into the market. This is anticipated to positively impact the fundamentals and valuation recovery of the brokerage sector [1]. - The report highlights that the brokerage sector's profitability is likely to see a significant year-on-year growth of 44% in Q1 2025, supported by increased trading activity, with the average daily trading volume reaching 16,764 billion yuan, a 77.6% increase year-on-year [1]. - The ongoing supply-side reforms in the industry aim to build first-class investment banks and enhance the competitiveness of brokerages. Mergers and acquisitions are being pursued to improve operational efficiency and market leadership [2]. Summary by Sections Market Conditions - The brokerage sector is experiencing a recovery in trading activity, with a notable increase in daily trading volumes, which is expected to support profitability growth [1]. - The report anticipates that the recovery in the capital market will lead to better-than-expected improvements in the fundamentals of brokerages [1]. Industry Reforms - Supply-side reforms are accelerating, focusing on creating top-tier investment banks and enhancing the strength of the brokerage industry. This includes several ongoing merger cases [2]. - The current valuation of the brokerage sector is at a historical low, with a price-to-book ratio of 1.44, indicating limited downside and potential for upward valuation adjustments [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends increasing holdings in the brokerage sector, emphasizing the potential for exceeding expectations in fundamental improvements and the benefits from ongoing supply-side reforms. Specific stock picks include Huatai Securities and GF Securities, with additional focus on Northeast Securities, Guolian Minsheng, and Tianfeng Securities [2].