Cavalcanti, JBS CFO. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. >> Good morning Frank.>> All right. Talk to me about the quarter here in the quarter, even though you beat expectations, you talked about a challenging geopolitical environment. What's the challenge and what has changed from a quarter ago.A quarter ago, you guys said there was strong demand for protein. >> The demand for protein still strong. So and we show this quarter I think the challenging factor is more the beef segment in us given the si ...

Corporate America has a lot worries, including tariffs, inflation and consumer demand. A recession isn’t one of them. https://t.co/HK2fV75JRw ...

Business Performance - Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings experienced a stock surge following earnings, indicating positive market reaction [1][2] - The company faced a challenging April due to tariff announcements and macro uncertainties [2][3] - Booking pace and consumer demand have been strong, with record months in May, June, and July [3] Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - There's a shift in consumer demand towards shorter and closer-to-home itineraries [6] - The Caribbean is gaining popularity as a destination compared to Europe [5] - Cruising is considered a good value, approximately 30% less expensive than a typical hotel stay [9] Growth and Investment - The cruise industry's growth is limited to 5% per year due to shipyard capacity [12] - Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings has 13 ships on order over the next 10-11 years, representing about 4% annual growth [11][12] - Investments are being made in destinations like Great Stirrup Cay, including water parks and adult-only beach clubs, to enhance the customer experience [5][6][7]

Trade Deal Impact - EU trade deal provides a breath of relief but no cheers yet for European wine and spirits makers, who find themselves left out [1] - A 15% tariff on EU imports to the US is better than the feared 30%, but no decision regarding a wine and spirits carveout has been made [2] - EU officials say an agreement for the sector will be examined in the coming weeks [2] - Spirits stocks initially ticked slightly higher but then moved lower as investor uncertainty settled in [3] Financial and Market Concerns - A 15% tariff is still a big hit, as a previous 10% blanket tariff on EU imports led to a 12% decline for wine producers [3] - Leading wine makers may have to increase prices or exit the US market overall [4] - The EU exported 105 billion (10.5% billion) of alcohol to the US in 2024, with 12 billion (1.2% billion) coming back in return [4] - Beer maker Heineken reported an earnings beat but warned of softening demand in the US and EU [5] Industry Trends and Challenges - The industry faces the impact of cannabis, GLP1s, and generational shifts leading to decreased alcohol consumption [7] - Legal drinking age Gen Z consumers are drinking less, turning to non-alcoholic options [7] - Weaker consumer demand and rising prices are anticipated, according to producers [9] - Steel and aluminum tariffs also weigh on the sector, in addition to tariffs on the products themselves [6]

Market Trends & Consumer Behavior - Consumers are focused on value and accessible pricing, especially for back-to-school and fall apparel [2][3][16][17][18] - Consumers are not engaging in significant forward buying or front-loading of apparel purchases [8] - Baggy and relaxed silhouettes are currently popular fashion trends [13][14] Company Strategy & Performance - The company is focused on providing fashion, style, and quality at accessible prices across brands like JCPenney, Eddie Bauer, Lucky Brand, Nautica, Aeropostale, and Brooks Brothers [3] - The company is offering pre-tariff pricing on essential back-to-school items like uniforms, denim, t-shirts, and backpacks, matching last year's prices [4][5] - JCPenney is offering kids' haircuts for $12, matching last year's pricing, and expects to give over 100,000 haircuts [6] - Aeropostale is focused on the 13-18 year old demographic and experiencing positive growth [19][20] - JCPenney experienced a 6% increase in customer traffic growth last quarter [18] Supply Chain & Sourcing - The company sources from a large number of countries of origin [10] - Sourcing teams aim to secure the best prices for consumers, considering the tariff environment, by leveraging the combined volume across brands [11]

Retail Sales Performance - U S Census Bureau报告显示，4月至6月零售额经季节性调整后同比增长4.1% [1] - 消费者需求表现出乎意料的强劲 [1]

Core Insights - Procter & Gamble (P&G) has raised its quarterly dividend to $1.0568 per share, up from $1.0065, despite a 5% decline in its stock year-to-date compared to a 7% rise in the S&P 500, primarily due to a revised fiscal year outlook reflecting a slowdown in consumer demand [2][11] - The current valuation of P&G stock appears reasonable, with potential for appreciation despite minor concerns [2][11] - P&G's operational performance and financial stability remain solid, although revenue growth has been weak in recent years [3][5][7] Growth - P&G has experienced an average growth rate of 1.8% in its top line over the last three years, compared to a 5.5% increase for the S&P 500 [7] - Revenues have declined by 0.2% from $84 billion to $84 billion in the past 12 months, against a growth of 5.5% for the S&P 500 [7] - Quarterly revenues dropped by 2.1% to $20 billion in the most recent quarter from $20 billion a year prior, while the S&P 500 saw a 4.8% increase [7] Profitability - P&G's profit margins are around the average level for companies within the Trefis coverage universe, with an operating income of $20 billion reflecting a moderate operating margin of 23.8% [6] - The company's net income amounted to $15 billion, resulting in a high net income margin of 18.5%, compared to 11.6% for the S&P 500 [13] Financial Stability - P&G's balance sheet appears sound, with total debt of $34 billion and a market capitalization of $370 billion, leading to a strong debt-to-equity ratio of 9.1% compared to 19.4% for the S&P 500 [13] - Cash and cash equivalents constitute $9.1 billion of the $123 billion in total assets, resulting in a moderate cash-to-assets ratio of 7.4% [13] Downturn Resilience - P&G stock has shown slightly better performance than the S&P 500 during recent downturns, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24.3% compared to 25.4% for the S&P 500 from April 2022 to October 2022 [9][13] - The stock fully recovered to its pre-crisis peak by May 2024 and has since risen to approximately $160 [13] Overall Assessment - P&G's performance across critical factors is strong, with a current valuation suggesting a potential upside of 15% from its current position [11][10]

Financial Performance - Constellation Brands' fiscal first-quarter results fell short of analysts' expectations [1] Market Trends - Weak consumer demand was cited by the beverage giant's CEO [1]

China's Economic Slowdown - China Beige Book data indicates a broad slowdown in China's economy, with declines in manufacturing, consumption, and bank borrowing [3] - May data initially appeared positive due to tariff reductions and consumer trade-in programs, but subsequent data revealed a fall-off [2][3] Beijing's Policy Stance - Beijing seems less concerned about the economic situation and is intervening less aggressively than before [4] - This reduced concern is attributed to Beijing's confidence in its leverage in trade discussions with the United States [4] - China is easing rates and engaging in fiscal stimulus, but not to the extent that would be expected in an extreme downside scenario [5][6] Trade War Dynamics - China is perceived to be able to withstand more economic pain compared to Western democracies [8] - China is using export controls, particularly on rare earth magnets, to demonstrate leverage against the United States [8] - China feels it has presented a strong front in the trade war, reducing the immediate need for aggressive economic measures [9] Consumption and Manufacturing - Claims of China transforming into a mega consumer powerhouse are viewed skeptically [10][11] - China's weak domestic demand leads to increased exports and potential dumping of products on global markets [13][14] - Overcapacity in various sectors, including cars and EVs, contributes to the pressure to export [17] Overcapacity and Export Strategy - China's economic model, characterized by weak domestic consumption and strong supply-side support, results in overcapacity being channeled to the global market [17] - This overcapacity can be used strategically to exert leverage on adversaries like the United States, particularly in critical minerals [16]

Company Performance - General Mills CEO discusses earnings [1] Market Trends & Challenges - Addresses consumer demand challenges [1] - Discusses economic uncertainty [1]