Let's bring in Wilmington Trust Megan Shu. Megan, good to talk to you. It seems as though investors are just really shrugging off any impact from the government shutdown here.>> Yeah, Contessa, I think that's right. And it jives with what we've seen historically. Uh historically, shutdowns don't have a material economic impact, especially if they stay short enough in duration.you tend to get uh basically a a tenth to two tenths per week for every week that the government shut down, but then you get that mad ...

Joining us right now is Gabriella Santos. She is chief market strategist for the Americas at JP Morgan Asset Management. And uh Gabriella, why don't we just start with yesterday's new highs despite the government shutdown. We know that government shutdowns often don't uh affect the markets.In fact, you tend to see the markets trade up. Um but what what is happening. Is this a case where we're looking at this thinking this will be resolved quickly.Thinking it doesn't matter. what you're seeing from spending ...

But let's begin here. The markets and your money higher to begin the month. Happy October, by the way.So, what are some of the key issues to watch as we just kind of slide into the fourth quarter. Kate Morris is here. She is City Wealth's chief investment officer.Kate, it's great to have you on set. We're starting the fourth quarter. Markets have been hot this year.Don't seem to care about a looming government shutdown. Why not. >> Well, because it doesn't tend to last very long, right.We've had like 15 gov ...

Core Insights - Conagra Brands Inc. shares increased by approximately 2% following the release of first-quarter fiscal 2026 results that surpassed earnings expectations despite inflationary pressures and cautious consumer spending [1] Financial Performance - The company reported adjusted earnings of $0.39 per share for the quarter ending August 24, exceeding the analyst consensus of $0.33 [2] - Revenue for the quarter was $2.63 billion, slightly above estimates of $2.62 billion, but down 5.8% compared to the previous year; organic net sales decreased by 0.6% [2] Future Outlook - Conagra reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 outlook, projecting organic net sales growth between -1% and +1%, adjusted operating margin of 11.0% to 11.5%, and adjusted EPS between $1.70 and $1.85, aligning with the analyst consensus of $1.78 [3]

Valuation Metrics - Shiller's CAPE is currently at 40x, the highest level since the dot-com bubble, indicating a potentially expensive market [4] - Trailing P/E stands at about 28x, significantly above historical averages, calculated using earnings from the past 12 months [5] - Forward P/E is approximately 22x, also above historical averages, based on expected earnings over the next 12 months [6] - All valuation metrics suggest that the stock market is expensive, implying weak returns in the future [7] Historical Context - In mid-2014, Shiller's CAPE was about 26x, above its long-term average of 17x, suggesting the market was expensive [8] - The realized CAPE at that time was about 17x, indicating the market was not expensive due to healthy earnings growth in subsequent years [9] Macroeconomic Developments - Inflation is rising, with the core PCE price index up 2.9% year-over-year, above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [13] - Consumer spending increased by 0.3% month-over-month in August, reaching a record annual rate of $21.11 trillion [14] - Business investment activity improved, with core capex orders rising 0.6% to $76.7 billion in August [15] - Initial unemployment claims fell to 218,000, indicating a historically strong labor market [16] Housing Market Insights - Sales of previously owned homes decreased by 0.2% in August, while new home sales surged 20.5% to an annualized rate of 800,000 units [19][20] - The median existing-home sales price rose 2.0% year-over-year, marking the 26th consecutive month of price increases [20] Economic Outlook - The long-term outlook for the stock market remains favorable, supported by expectations for years of earnings growth [23] - Demand for goods and services remains positive, bolstered by healthy consumer and business balance sheets [24] - Economic growth is normalizing, with major tailwinds like excess job openings fading [25] - There is a disconnect between hard economic data and soft sentiment-oriented data, with tangible activity continuing to grow [26] Market Dynamics - The U.S. stock market may outperform the economy in the near term due to positive operating leverage from companies adjusting cost structures [27] - Risks such as political uncertainty, geopolitical turmoil, and energy price volatility remain present [28]

>we measure our "economic health" with consumer spending>the Fed thinks people stop spending if prices go down (?)>it makes sure prices go up foreverThis is Keynesian economics in its most distilled form.That's how you get insane quotes like this.Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert):Fed Governor Michelle Bowman: "I am concerned that, in the current environment, declines in house prices could accelerate" https://t.co/mHlz3uhi5o ...

Joining us now to talk about the impact of a shutdown, Mark Zandandy, Moody's Analytics chief economist for all these reasons, Mark, you know, should are investors right to brush off the threat of a of a shutdown and what that might do economically. >> Well, Sarah, I mean, if the shutdowns a week or two and that's probably the most likely scenario, and that's probably what investors think is going to happen appropriately. So, then, you know, from a macroeconomic perspective, a market perspective, no big dea ...

Let's continue that conversation this morning with Dan Greenhouse, chief strategist, managing director at Solless Alternative Asset Management, who joins us here at Post9. Happy Friday, DG. Good to see you.So, this uh this week, has it been like a a healthy breather going into a ramp in the year end or is the rally as broad as you would have liked. >> No, the rally is not as broad as I would have liked. It's there's a lot of lowquality and uh bitcoin related names that that have led the way, but but also ho ...

This means few important things.✅ Inflation is stable✅ Tariffs = no inflation shock✅ Consumer spending is under controlNow the market believes a rate cut is coming this October.And for crypto? That’s bullish 🚀because lower rates = more liquidity = more risk-on flows. ...

Core Insights - US personal spending increased in August, surpassing forecasts, indicating steady underlying inflationary pressures [1] - Inflation-adjusted consumer spending rose by 0.4% for the second consecutive month, reflecting consumer resilience [1] - The core personal consumption index saw a 0.2% increase from July, suggesting persistent inflation trends [1] Economic Impact - The data is significant for the Federal Reserve as it assesses monetary policy in light of consumer spending trends [1] - The steady rise in personal spending may influence future interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [1] - The overall economic outlook remains cautiously optimistic due to the sustained consumer spending levels [1]