Core Viewpoint - The dollar index is experiencing downward pressure due to dovish comments from the Federal Reserve and disappointing economic data, while the euro is gaining strength amid easing political risks in France and supportive comments from the European Central Bank. Group 1: Dollar Performance - The dollar index (DXY00) is down by -0.21% and has reached a one-week low, influenced by dovish remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller regarding potential interest rate cuts to support the labor market [1] - The October Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey fell significantly by -36.0 to a six-month low of -12.8, which was weaker than the expected 10.0, contributing to bearish sentiment for the dollar [3] - The ongoing US government shutdown is also seen as a negative factor for the dollar, as prolonged shutdowns could harm the US economy [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The October NAHB housing market index rose by +5 to a six-month high of 37, surpassing expectations of 33, indicating some positive momentum in the housing sector [3] - Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin noted that US productivity growth appears to be improving "significantly," which may help mitigate inflationary pressures from trade tariffs [4] Group 3: Euro Performance - The EUR/USD pair is up by +0.21% and has reached a one-week high, supported by easing political risks in France after Prime Minister Lecornu survived two no-confidence votes [5] - Hawkish comments from ECB Governing Council member Wunsch indicated that the likelihood of additional ECB rate cuts has been decreasing, further supporting the euro [5][6]

Market Trends & Investment Opportunities - The most persistent and robust trend is the anti-fiat currency movement, driven by a lack of trust in governments' ability to curtail spending [2] - Investors are turning to non-fiat instruments like crypto (particularly Bitcoin), gold, and silver [3][4] - Younger generations with different preference profiles are contributing to a massive wealth redistribution and favoring crypto and Bitcoin [3][4] - The debasement trade is facilitated by low yields, not requiring higher yields [7][8] - The growth in stablecoins represents a form of dollarization within the crypto space [11] - The most persistent trend remains debasement and a move away from fiat currencies in search of alternatives [13] Currency & Economic Factors - The dollar's drop in the first half of 2025 is largely an unwinding of the rally seen in 2024 [9] - The dollar experienced overwhelming flows during the decade of US exceptionalism, and the recent adjustment is a natural unwinding [9][10] - While some further dollarization may occur, underlying forces are pushing the reallocation of assets [13] - Investor revolt is visible in the back end of yield curves, particularly in the UK and France, where investors are unwilling to hold long positions despite rising yields [8]

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Core Viewpoint - HSBC anticipates that the U.S. dollar will reach its lowest point early next year, suggesting a trend towards a weaker USD based on historical patterns of Federal Reserve rate cuts during periods of no recession [1] Group 1 - HSBC's expectation of the dollar bottoming out early next year indicates a significant shift in currency dynamics [1] - The analysis highlights that previous instances of Fed rate cuts, while the U.S. economy avoided recession, correlate with a weaker U.S. dollar [1]

Group 1 - U.S. stocks are poised for a rebound following President Trump's softened stance on China, which reassured investors after recent tariff threats caused market declines [1] - Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 445 points, representing a 1% rise, while S&P 500 futures rose by 1.3% and Nasdaq 100 contracts gained 1.9% [1] Group 2 - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note decreased by 11 basis points, settling at 4.04% [2] - Gold futures surged by 2.3%, reaching a record price of $4,093 per ounce [2] - The U.S. dollar appreciated by 0.1% against a weighted basket of currencies [2]

Group 1 - The fluctuation in gold prices resembles that of stock trading, with daily changes causing uncertainty for consumers [4][8] - There is a significant price disparity among different gold retailers, with some stores pricing gold at 1,168 per gram while others offer it at around 1,100, leading to a difference of over 200 per gram [2][6] - Major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook maintain consistent pricing, suggesting possible collusion, while other brands like Lao Feng Xiang and Lao Miao show varied pricing strategies [2][6] Group 2 - Consumers are advised to consider purchasing gold bars for better value, as they typically have lower premiums compared to jewelry, which includes additional craftsmanship costs [6] - The decision to buy gold should be based on individual urgency and market conditions, with recommendations for dollar-cost averaging to mitigate risks associated with price volatility [8] - The long-term view on gold remains positive as a hard currency, despite short-term fluctuations influenced by various economic factors [8]

U.S. stock futures were a touch lower on Friday, at the end of a week in which stocks have struggled for direction amid uncertainty about the ongoing government shutdown.Futures tracking the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up just 10 points, effectively trading flat. S&P 500 futures fell 0.1%, and contracts tied to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down by the same amount.The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was down 3 basis points to 4.11%. The dollar slipped 0.2% against a weighted basket of its pee ...

The greenback is rebounding after a bad first-half, and that's troubling news for those betting against the dollar: Here’s your Evening Briefing https://t.co/CNdqCkWFwg ...

Betting against the dollar has been the dominant trade this year in the $9.6 trillion-a-day foreign exchange market, but the wager is starting to stumble https://t.co/hUuXpgg6fa ...

The Japanese yen extended its slide Tuesday, touching the weakest level since February against the dollar https://t.co/GqDGGi1VJI ...