Group 1 - The average daily trading volume in the market was approximately 15,463 billion yuan, with micro liquidity showing differentiation [1] - Growth style outperformed value style, and small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks [1] - The telecommunications, pharmaceutical, and automotive sectors performed well, while media, real estate, and public utilities lagged [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic outlook indicates that the focus for the second half of the year will be on anti-involution policies, which aim to address significant price pressures [2] - The second quarter GDP growth was 5.2% year-on-year, slightly down from 5.4% in the first quarter, but still stable above 5% [1][2] - Domestic industrial product prices may gradually find support due to supply-side governance under the anti-involution policy [2] Group 3 - The current market is characterized by a trend of "support from the US economy + liquidity improvement + tech stock assistance" [3] - Short-term market movements are expected to be dominated by high-level fluctuations, with small-cap stocks continuing to reach new highs [4] - The market has broken through the 3,500 pressure level and is stabilizing, with a relatively balanced market style [5] Group 4 - Investment opportunities include low-level cyclical stocks and sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies, as well as the financial sector, which is seen as a stabilizing force [6] - Attention should also be given to sectors driven by technology, military, and innovative pharmaceuticals [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent announcement by Trump regarding the implementation of a new round of tariffs, termed "Tariff 2.0," which includes significant increases in tariffs on various countries, indicating a more aggressive trade policy approach. Group 1: Tariff Increases - Trump plans to impose a uniform tariff of 15% or 20% on most trade partners, with specific countries facing much higher rates, such as Brazil at 50%, Canada at 35%, and Vietnam at 20% [1][3][4]. - A total of 14 countries, including Japan, South Korea, and Malaysia, will face tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% starting August 1 [2][3]. - The tariffs on Brazil and Vietnam represent a significant increase from previous levels, with Brazil's tariffs rising from 10% to 50% and Vietnam's from an expected 11% to 20% [3][6]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Despite the aggressive tariff announcements, the market has reacted relatively calmly, with the S&P 500 index nearing record highs and large tech stocks showing gains [7][9]. - The market's indifference is attributed to the perception that Trump's threats may be more of a negotiation tactic rather than a firm policy direction, leading to the concept of "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out) [9][10]. - The expectation of a potential retreat from these tariffs is reinforced by the historical pattern of Trump backing down under market pressure [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The market shows remarkable calm in response to Trump's latest tariff threats, with analysts even raising stock market targets despite the potential implications of the tariffs [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The S&P 500 index experienced a minimal decline of only 0.07%, indicating a lack of significant market disturbance despite the announcement of new tariffs [1][4]. - Analysts from major financial institutions, such as Bank of America and Goldman Sachs, have raised their year-end target prices for the S&P 500, reflecting a bullish outlook amidst tariff threats [3][4]. Group 2: Tariff Implications - If implemented, the new tariffs would raise the average import tax rate in the U.S. to its highest level in a century, comparable to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act during the Great Depression [3]. - The tariffs on copper and pharmaceuticals are set to take effect soon, with copper tariffs at 50% and pharmaceuticals potentially at 200% [1][3]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Investors appear to view the tariff threats as negotiation tactics rather than genuine policy intentions, leading to a dismissive attitude towards potential trade war risks [3][5]. - The market has developed a consensus termed "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out), reflecting skepticism about the actual implementation of the tariffs [5]. Group 4: Commodity Market Impact - The commodity markets reacted sharply, with copper futures surging over 10% following Trump's announcement, marking the highest price levels since the 2008 financial crisis [7]. - The pharmaceutical sector within the S&P 500 also experienced significant volatility due to the direct impact of the tariff threats [9]. Group 5: Economic Outlook - A recent survey from the New York Federal Reserve indicates that consumer inflation expectations have decreased to 3%, suggesting diminishing concerns about tariffs driving up inflation [6]. - The unpredictable nature of trade policies is causing uncertainty in pricing strategies for businesses, as highlighted by economic analysts [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the term "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out) on President Trump's psyche and its potential to cause market volatility amid ongoing trade tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Policy Uncertainty - Since May, trade policy uncertainty has significantly decreased from its peak in early April, but has recently surged again due to renewed tariff threats [2]. - Trump threatened a 50% tariff on the EU, which he later postponed, highlighting the erratic nature of his trade policies [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The "TACO" term encapsulates Trump's pattern of making aggressive tariff threats followed by retreats under market pressure, which has become a trading strategy on Wall Street [3]. - Despite Trump's threats causing market fluctuations, the U.S. stock market achieved its best May performance since 1997, indicating that traders are looking for rebound opportunities after his threats [3]. Group 3: Trump's Response to "TACO" - Trump perceives "TACO" as a personal affront, as it challenges his self-image as a strong negotiator and trader [4]. - Following a court ruling limiting his power to impose tariffs, Trump chose to appeal rather than back down, possibly influenced by the "chicken" label [5][6]. Group 4: Potential Consequences - Trump's determination to counter the "TACO" narrative may lead him to adopt a more aggressive stance in trade negotiations, potentially at the expense of economic stability [7].

Core Viewpoint - The term "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out) has emerged in the financial circles of Wall Street, reflecting President Trump's inconsistent trade policies and potentially leading to increased market volatility [1][4][6]. Group 1: Trade Policy Uncertainty - Since May, uncertainty regarding trade policies has significantly decreased from its peak in early April, but has recently surged again due to the re-emergence of tariffs and restrictions [1]. - Trump's trade policies have shown a pattern of unpredictability, with threats of 50% tariffs on the EU followed by extensions of implementation deadlines [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The "TACO" acronym was coined by Robert Armstrong of the Financial Times to describe Trump's tendency to issue high-stakes threats only to back down under market pressure or negotiation [4]. - This pattern has become a market norm, where Trump's tariff threats often lead to stock price declines, but subsequent policy reversals result in rapid market rebounds [4][5]. - Despite the volatility caused by Trump's trade threats, the U.S. stock market recently recorded its best May performance since 1997, indicating that market participants are beginning to seek rebound opportunities following Trump's threats [5]. Group 3: Trump's Response to "TACO" - Trump's reaction to the "TACO" term has been intense, as he perceives it as an attack on his strength as a negotiator, which he finds unacceptable [4][6]. - A source indicated that Trump cannot tolerate the perception that his tariff adjustments reflect weakness, as he prides himself on being a tough negotiator [5]. - Following a court ruling that limited his authority to impose tariffs, Trump chose to appeal rather than back down, suggesting that he views "TACO" as a personal challenge [6]. Group 4: Implications for Future Trade Policies - Trump's determination to counter the "TACO" narrative may lead him to adopt a more aggressive stance in trade negotiations, potentially at the expense of economic and social considerations [6].