Core Viewpoint - The global market trading focus will shift from Trump's election victory to preparations for the midterm elections, with the outcome of the 2026 midterm elections directly impacting the political landscape for Trump and the Republican Party [2]. Group 1: Midterm Elections - Trump's 2026 Policy Line - The midterm elections are crucial for Trump, as they may represent the last significant electoral battle of his political career, with a high likelihood of increased political resistance if he loses [4][22]. - Historical data shows that the president's party typically loses seats in midterm elections, with an average loss of 25.7 seats in the House and 3.3 seats in the Senate over the last 20 elections [16][20]. - The significance of the midterm elections is heightened for Trump, as a defeat could severely limit his political ambitions during the final years of his presidency [21][22]. Group 2: Trade Policy - Continued Uncertainty and Conflict - Trump's trade policy is expected to remain unpredictable, with potential for renewed tariff conflicts as a means to rally voter support and shift internal political pressures outward [4][33]. - The Supreme Court's upcoming decision on Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs may lead to alternative legal strategies for implementing tariffs if the ruling is unfavorable [34][38]. - The anticipated increase in tariff revenue could help alleviate fiscal pressures and support Trump's broader economic agenda leading up to the midterm elections [47]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - More Rate Cuts and Lower Credit Quality - The new Federal Reserve chair, expected to take office in May 2026, is likely to implement more aggressive rate cuts than the market anticipates, with projections of at least four rate cuts by the end of next year [5][61]. - Lower interest rates are seen as essential for stimulating economic growth and supporting stock markets, particularly in light of the negative impacts of tariffs [49][51]. - The anticipated shift in monetary policy could lead to a weaker dollar and increased credit challenges, impacting overall market sentiment [48][56]. Group 4: Fiscal Policy - Necessity and Feasibility of Expansion - There is a pressing need for expanded fiscal policies to stimulate demand and counteract the negative effects of tariffs as the midterm elections approach [66][68]. - Increased tariff revenues and reduced fiscal pressure from lower interest rates could provide the necessary funding for expanded fiscal measures without resorting to excessive borrowing [68]. - The experience from the 2018 midterm elections suggests that failure to maintain fiscal expansion could lead to adverse market reactions [68]. Group 5: Foreign Policy - Return to "America First" and Strong Geopolitical Stance - Trump's foreign policy is expected to focus on pragmatic interest exchanges, emphasizing "America First" while managing geopolitical conflicts with limited intervention [69][79]. - Efforts to mediate conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine situation and the Middle East will continue, with a strong emphasis on leveraging economic and military pressure to achieve peace [70][73]. - The approach to foreign policy will likely involve a mix of negotiation and coercion, potentially increasing geopolitical tensions and impacting market risk appetite [79].

Group 1: Dollar Index Analysis - The dollar index attempted to break 100 for the second time, with the first attempt occurring at the end of July 2025, followed by a significant drop due to disappointing non-farm payroll data on August 1[3] - The current macroeconomic environment differs significantly from July, with a lack of economic data and a hawkish stance from Powell leading to a "self-driving" market[4] - In July, the British pound experienced the largest decline among G7 currencies due to ongoing economic weakness in the UK, while this time the Japanese yen is leading the decline following Japan's monetary easing policies[4] Group 2: Future Outlook - The current attempt to break 100 is expected to be more successful than in July, with potential for higher rebound points and longer duration[5] - However, the dollar is not entering a long-term appreciation cycle; it is merely experiencing a rebound[5] - Short-term market expectations are pricing in a greater than 30% probability of no interest rate cuts in December, indicating significant room for policy expectation adjustments[5] - The upcoming announcement of the Federal Reserve chair by the White House is anticipated to negatively impact the dollar[5] - Long-term, the Fed is still in a rate-cutting cycle, and ongoing U.S. debt issues alongside European fiscal measures remain critical concerns[5] - The dollar's rebound may assist in stabilizing gold and silver prices and help equity markets adjust to high valuations[5] - Risks include significant changes in U.S. trade policies and unexpected tariff expansions that could lead to a global economic slowdown[5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent escalation of trade tensions between the U.S. and China, particularly the announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1, and contrasts the market's reaction to this news with previous instances of trade disputes, highlighting a more measured response this time around [2][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The market's reaction to the recent tariff announcement was less severe compared to earlier instances, with the Nasdaq index dropping 3.56% on October 10, which is smaller than the declines observed in April [2]. - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index and the Wind China Concept Technology Leaders Index fell by 6.10% and 6.59%, respectively, both of which were also less than the declines seen in April [2]. - The VIX fear index rose to 21.66 but remained significantly lower than the peak of 60.13 observed in April [2]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors now have more experience and memory regarding trade tensions, leading to a calmer market response; the probability of the 100% tariff being implemented is perceived to be only 23%, compared to less than 15% in April for a potential reduction in tariffs [3]. - The market's perception of the likelihood of President Trump backing down from the tariff threat has increased, as indicated by betting markets [3]. Group 3: Market Stability Expectations - There is a stronger expectation for market stability now compared to April, with ongoing emphasis from policymakers on maintaining a stable capital market [5]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission noted a decrease in annualized volatility of the Shanghai Composite Index during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, indicating improved market health [5]. - Institutional investors have increased their holdings in stock ETFs, with their share rising from 33.0% at the end of 2024 to 37.2% in the first half of 2025, contributing to market stability [5]. Group 4: Valuation and Sensitivity - The current market valuation differs from April, with 18% of stocks exceeding the 95% historical percentile, indicating a higher concentration of high-value stocks [6]. - Margin balances have been rising since June, reaching annual highs, which may increase sensitivity to negative shocks in the market [6][7]. - The S&P 500 index's forecasted price-to-earnings ratio is above the 96th percentile since the end of 1999, suggesting elevated valuation levels [6].

Market Sentiment and Macro Factors - China's exports in September showed resilience with a year-on-year increase of 8.3% in US dollar terms, and imports rose 7.4%, both exceeding expectations. Industrial robot and wind power exports grew strongly, while soybean, iron ore imports reached record highs, and rare earth exports decreased by 31% month-on-month [1]. - The US-China trade friction escalated after Trump's threat to impose additional tariffs, but his subsequent remarks and actions somewhat eased the market's pessimistic sentiment. The impact of this trade friction is expected to be weaker than that in April 2025 [1][2]. - The Fed official Paulson hinted at supporting two more 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year [2]. Stock Market - The stock market opened lower due to Trump's tariff information but recovered some losses with the release of resilient domestic import and export data. The market is expected to remain in a high - level volatile state, with a tendency to rise rather than fall [4]. - The CSI 300 index closed down 0.49% yesterday, and the two - market trading volume decreased by 1608.74 billion yuan. In the futures market, IH decreased with lower volume, while other varieties decreased with higher volume [4]. Bond Market - In the face of the tense US - China trade situation, the A - share market showed resilience, and the bond market's spot bond yield decreased compared to Friday but increased compared to Saturday. If the trade situation is only temporarily tense, it will not change the rhythm of monetary policy, and interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts will be postponed [5]. Shipping Market - The container shipping index (European line) futures (EC) prices were in a low - level volatile state with a slight upward trend. CMA CGM announced a price increase for November on the Asia - to - Northern Europe route [6]. Commodity Market Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices continued to surge. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4130 per ounce, up 3.24%, and SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 50.775 per ounce, up 7.47% [8]. - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates, and long - term funds increased their positions in gold and silver ETFs. The inventory of SHFE silver decreased [9]. Base Metals - Copper prices rebounded strongly, with both domestic and international copper prices reaching high levels. The copper market has returned to the upward channel, but it may be restricted by the high price and weak downstream purchasing willingness [12]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, while alumina is in a weak state, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [13]. - Zinc prices are in a situation of mixed long and short factors. In the short term, they are mainly based on a short - selling logic, and the trading strategy can be to hold long - short spreads [14]. - Tin prices are expected to be in a callback phase, and investors can wait for opportunities to enter the market on the long side [15]. - Lead prices are in a high - level volatile state, with limited upward space [19]. Black Metals - Steel prices are under pressure due to weak fundamentals, with high supply and insufficient demand. The market is waiting for positive signals from the Fourth Plenary Session [21][22]. - Iron ore prices rebounded strongly, but the fundamentals are under pressure, and the price is expected to first rise and then fall, remaining in a range - bound state [23]. - Coking coal and coke prices are at risk of negative feedback, and the trading strategy is to treat them with a volatile mindset and pay attention to the 1 - 5 spread of coking coal [25]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are under pressure due to high supply and weak demand, and the cost support is facing challenges [26]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices rebounded slightly, but the upward space is limited. The market is under pressure from weak demand and increased supply [27]. - LPG prices may be affected by the reduction of PDH profits. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand is slightly weak [28]. - PTA - PX prices are mainly affected by macro - events, and the trading strategy is to wait and see on the long side. The supply of PX is expected to increase, and the demand for polyester is seasonally improved but limited [30]. - MEG prices are under pressure from long - term inventory accumulation. The current coal - based marginal device is close to the cost line, and the price is expected to be in the range of 3850 - 4250 [34]. - Methanol prices are affected by macro - trading. The 01 contract is expected to be in the range of 2250 - 2350, and investors can buy a small amount of bottom - position contracts at low prices [36]. - PP and PE prices are under pressure due to strong supply and weak demand. The trading strategy is to wait and see [39][42]. - Pure benzene and styrene prices are affected by inventory and supply. The short - term market is expected to be volatile, and the trading strategy is to wait and see [43]. - Fuel oil prices maintain a high cracking spread. The supply may be tight, and the demand is relatively stable [43]. - Asphalt prices are affected by cost and demand. The short - term market is expected to be volatile, and the trading strategy is to wait and see [45]. - Urea prices are in a weak state, and the market is waiting for new export quotas and the impact of Sino - US trade conflicts [46]. - Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda prices are expected to be weak. Soda ash has high - level supply pressure, glass has high inventory and weak demand, and caustic soda has high - profit restrictions and uncertain downstream demand [47][48][50]. - Pulp prices are in a weak and volatile state, affected by high inventory and weak downstream demand [50]. - Log prices are expected to have a deep - discount situation again before delivery, and the trading strategy is mainly short - selling [51]. - Propylene prices are affected by cost collapse, and the supply is relatively loose [51]. Agricultural Products - Hog prices are under pressure due to high supply. The trading strategy is to sell on rallies, and attention should be paid to the breeding rhythm and secondary fattening [53]. - Oilseed prices are mainly affected by Sino - US trade relations. Soybean imports may face a gap in the first quarter of next year, and rapeseed meal inventory is expected to decline seasonally [54].

Group 1 - The average daily trading volume in the market was approximately 15,463 billion yuan, with micro liquidity showing differentiation [1] - Growth style outperformed value style, and small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks [1] - The telecommunications, pharmaceutical, and automotive sectors performed well, while media, real estate, and public utilities lagged [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic outlook indicates that the focus for the second half of the year will be on anti-involution policies, which aim to address significant price pressures [2] - The second quarter GDP growth was 5.2% year-on-year, slightly down from 5.4% in the first quarter, but still stable above 5% [1][2] - Domestic industrial product prices may gradually find support due to supply-side governance under the anti-involution policy [2] Group 3 - The current market is characterized by a trend of "support from the US economy + liquidity improvement + tech stock assistance" [3] - Short-term market movements are expected to be dominated by high-level fluctuations, with small-cap stocks continuing to reach new highs [4] - The market has broken through the 3,500 pressure level and is stabilizing, with a relatively balanced market style [5] Group 4 - Investment opportunities include low-level cyclical stocks and sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies, as well as the financial sector, which is seen as a stabilizing force [6] - Attention should also be given to sectors driven by technology, military, and innovative pharmaceuticals [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent announcement by Trump regarding the implementation of a new round of tariffs, termed "Tariff 2.0," which includes significant increases in tariffs on various countries, indicating a more aggressive trade policy approach. Group 1: Tariff Increases - Trump plans to impose a uniform tariff of 15% or 20% on most trade partners, with specific countries facing much higher rates, such as Brazil at 50%, Canada at 35%, and Vietnam at 20% [1][3][4]. - A total of 14 countries, including Japan, South Korea, and Malaysia, will face tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% starting August 1 [2][3]. - The tariffs on Brazil and Vietnam represent a significant increase from previous levels, with Brazil's tariffs rising from 10% to 50% and Vietnam's from an expected 11% to 20% [3][6]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Despite the aggressive tariff announcements, the market has reacted relatively calmly, with the S&P 500 index nearing record highs and large tech stocks showing gains [7][9]. - The market's indifference is attributed to the perception that Trump's threats may be more of a negotiation tactic rather than a firm policy direction, leading to the concept of "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out) [9][10]. - The expectation of a potential retreat from these tariffs is reinforced by the historical pattern of Trump backing down under market pressure [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The market shows remarkable calm in response to Trump's latest tariff threats, with analysts even raising stock market targets despite the potential implications of the tariffs [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The S&P 500 index experienced a minimal decline of only 0.07%, indicating a lack of significant market disturbance despite the announcement of new tariffs [1][4]. - Analysts from major financial institutions, such as Bank of America and Goldman Sachs, have raised their year-end target prices for the S&P 500, reflecting a bullish outlook amidst tariff threats [3][4]. Group 2: Tariff Implications - If implemented, the new tariffs would raise the average import tax rate in the U.S. to its highest level in a century, comparable to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act during the Great Depression [3]. - The tariffs on copper and pharmaceuticals are set to take effect soon, with copper tariffs at 50% and pharmaceuticals potentially at 200% [1][3]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Investors appear to view the tariff threats as negotiation tactics rather than genuine policy intentions, leading to a dismissive attitude towards potential trade war risks [3][5]. - The market has developed a consensus termed "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out), reflecting skepticism about the actual implementation of the tariffs [5]. Group 4: Commodity Market Impact - The commodity markets reacted sharply, with copper futures surging over 10% following Trump's announcement, marking the highest price levels since the 2008 financial crisis [7]. - The pharmaceutical sector within the S&P 500 also experienced significant volatility due to the direct impact of the tariff threats [9]. Group 5: Economic Outlook - A recent survey from the New York Federal Reserve indicates that consumer inflation expectations have decreased to 3%, suggesting diminishing concerns about tariffs driving up inflation [6]. - The unpredictable nature of trade policies is causing uncertainty in pricing strategies for businesses, as highlighted by economic analysts [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the term "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out) on President Trump's psyche and its potential to cause market volatility amid ongoing trade tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Policy Uncertainty - Since May, trade policy uncertainty has significantly decreased from its peak in early April, but has recently surged again due to renewed tariff threats [2]. - Trump threatened a 50% tariff on the EU, which he later postponed, highlighting the erratic nature of his trade policies [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The "TACO" term encapsulates Trump's pattern of making aggressive tariff threats followed by retreats under market pressure, which has become a trading strategy on Wall Street [3]. - Despite Trump's threats causing market fluctuations, the U.S. stock market achieved its best May performance since 1997, indicating that traders are looking for rebound opportunities after his threats [3]. Group 3: Trump's Response to "TACO" - Trump perceives "TACO" as a personal affront, as it challenges his self-image as a strong negotiator and trader [4]. - Following a court ruling limiting his power to impose tariffs, Trump chose to appeal rather than back down, possibly influenced by the "chicken" label [5][6]. Group 4: Potential Consequences - Trump's determination to counter the "TACO" narrative may lead him to adopt a more aggressive stance in trade negotiations, potentially at the expense of economic stability [7].

Core Viewpoint - The term "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out) has emerged in the financial circles of Wall Street, reflecting President Trump's inconsistent trade policies and potentially leading to increased market volatility [1][4][6]. Group 1: Trade Policy Uncertainty - Since May, uncertainty regarding trade policies has significantly decreased from its peak in early April, but has recently surged again due to the re-emergence of tariffs and restrictions [1]. - Trump's trade policies have shown a pattern of unpredictability, with threats of 50% tariffs on the EU followed by extensions of implementation deadlines [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The "TACO" acronym was coined by Robert Armstrong of the Financial Times to describe Trump's tendency to issue high-stakes threats only to back down under market pressure or negotiation [4]. - This pattern has become a market norm, where Trump's tariff threats often lead to stock price declines, but subsequent policy reversals result in rapid market rebounds [4][5]. - Despite the volatility caused by Trump's trade threats, the U.S. stock market recently recorded its best May performance since 1997, indicating that market participants are beginning to seek rebound opportunities following Trump's threats [5]. Group 3: Trump's Response to "TACO" - Trump's reaction to the "TACO" term has been intense, as he perceives it as an attack on his strength as a negotiator, which he finds unacceptable [4][6]. - A source indicated that Trump cannot tolerate the perception that his tariff adjustments reflect weakness, as he prides himself on being a tough negotiator [5]. - Following a court ruling that limited his authority to impose tariffs, Trump chose to appeal rather than back down, suggesting that he views "TACO" as a personal challenge [6]. Group 4: Implications for Future Trade Policies - Trump's determination to counter the "TACO" narrative may lead him to adopt a more aggressive stance in trade negotiations, potentially at the expense of economic and social considerations [6].