华尔街投资者正在熟练掌握应对特朗普政策威胁的节奏。最新的格陵兰关税风波从 威胁到退让仅用数天 ，远短于此前4至6周的典型周期， "TACO"（Trump Always Chickens Out，特朗普总是退缩）思维已深度嵌入市场定价机制。 美东时间21日周三，特朗普宣布，已与北约秘书长吕特就格陵兰岛问题达成协议框架，由此暂缓始于2月1日生效的对欧洲国家加征计划。 据新华社报道，特朗普在瑞士达沃斯与吕特会晤后称，暂时不会按原定计划向反对美国得到格陵兰岛的欧洲八国加征关税。此前一天， 美国股市单日蒸发超1 万亿美元，创下4月以来最严重的抛售之一。尽管特朗普将这次下跌称为"花生米"，但政策转向的时机凸显了市场波动对其决策的影响力。 "政府对股市走势显然存在敏感性，"管理2140亿美元资产的Man Group首席市场策略师Kristina Hooper表示，"这在退让决定中表现得非常明显。"Corpay首席 市场策略师Karl Schamotta称， 特朗普对华尔街反应的评论"发出了信号，这击中了他的痛处"。 这一动态正在改变市场行为模式。 投资者一方面越来越确信特朗普会在市场压力下妥协，另一方面也在被迫适应更极端的 ...

【文/观察者网 王一】"TACO又现""特朗普和TACO搅动达沃斯""2026年可能会有更多TACO"美国总统 特朗普周中突然撤回就格陵兰问题发出的关税威胁，让这个"特朗普总是退缩"的英文缩写（Trump Always Chickens Out）再次被国际媒体热议。 英国《金融时报》1月23日报道称，此次急转弯，被视为金融市场"驯服"特朗普的又一例证，凸显出即 便特朗普对美国的主要盟友态度强硬，金融市场仍具备对他施加实际约束的力量。 20日，美国股市市值蒸发逾1万亿美元，成为自特朗普去年4月抛出"解放日"关税以来最严重的一次抛 售。最初，特朗普对市场下跌不以为意，称这与过去一年股市的涨幅相比只是"小意思"。 但到了21日下午，他宣布，已与北约秘书长吕特就格陵兰岛乃至整个北极地区的未来合作框架达成了一 致，不会对英法德等欧洲8国加征原定于2月1日生效的关税。 特朗普就格陵兰问题发出关税威胁后，标普500指数变化 《金融时报》制图 "政府内部显然对股市表现高度敏感，"对冲基金曼氏集团首席市场策略师克里斯蒂娜·胡珀分析称，"这 一点在此次选择退让的决定中体现得非常明显。"Corpay首席市场策略师沙莫塔也认为，特朗 ...

Investors are getting accustomed to a familiar pattern known on Wall Street as 'TACO' — the assumption that the president eventually reverses policies that threaten to sink the market ...

A trader works at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) next to a U.S. flag, after Republican Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election, in New York City, U.S., November 6, 2024. Andrew Kelly | ReutersStock Chart IconStock chart iconThe dollar index, 1-dayThe latest flare-up in Sell America positioning follows Trump's threats for tariffs on European countries as part of his push to take over Greenland. Representatives from the European Union gathered for an emergency meeting in response to Trump's call f ...

智通财经APP获悉，华尔街最爱用首字母缩写词来描述交易主题，包括FANG、FOMO/YOLO和TACO 等。现在，Ned Davis Research首席美国策略师Ed Clissold提出一个新的交易概念——"Big MAC"，这是 对"中期选举大戏即将到来"(Big Midterms Are Coming)的巧妙运用。Clissold旨在捕捉他认为2026年的投 资主题：今年秋季国会选举前后政策的影响。 特朗普年初发布的一系列准政策声明——大多通过社交媒体发布，几乎没有任何立法效力——表明他专 注于改善共和党在11月大选中的政治前景。这位美国总统正着力迎合精英阶层对美国"负担能力问题"的 解读。 这对股市的影响可能非常深远。以过去一周为例，特朗普要求信用卡发行商将利率上限设定在10%，甚 至不到当前平均利率的一半，此举导致银行股暴跌。特朗普还要求军工承包商停止派发股息并将资金投 入生产，也令这些公司遭受重创。周一，在特朗普政府再次攻击美联储独立性之后，美国股市震荡。 Clissold说："特朗普总统在中期选举前将重点放在了民众的负担能力上，这导致了一系列针对油价、抵 押贷款利率、信用卡利率和联邦基金利率的 ...

随着2026年中期选举的临近，华尔街正在转向一个被称为"Big MAC"的新交易主题——"中期选举大戏 即将上演"（Big Midterms Are Coming），以应对日益加剧的政策不确定性。 特朗普近期通过社交媒体发布了一系列密集的"准政策"声明，意在为共和党在11月的选举中争取优势。 这些举措已在市场引发震荡：银行股因被要求将信用卡利率上限设定在10%而重挫，军工承包商则因总 统要求暂停分红并投资生产而遭受打击。与此同时，行政当局对美联储独立性的持续抨击，令整个金融 界感到不安。 这种政策层面的"混乱"已被视为2026年市场的核心风险，迫使投资者在"完美定价"的市场环境中重新审 视估值逻辑。尽管大盘指数表现相对平稳，但个股和板块层面的波动性显著上升，摩根大通等机构已发 出警告，鉴于美联储面临的压力，美股近期可能表现不佳。 在距离中期选举还有42周之际，这种"推特治国"带来的不可预测性，正使得坚持传统交易策略变得愈发 艰难。市场参与者担忧，白宫可能随时引入针对其他行业的特定风险，从而打破现有的市场平衡。 "Big MAC"交易浮现 华尔街向来热衷于用首字母缩略词来概括交易逻辑。在经历了"TACO"交易（ ...

Core Viewpoint - The global market trading focus will shift from Trump's election victory to preparations for the midterm elections, with the outcome of the 2026 midterm elections directly impacting the political landscape for Trump and the Republican Party [2]. Group 1: Midterm Elections - Trump's 2026 Policy Line - The midterm elections are crucial for Trump, as they may represent the last significant electoral battle of his political career, with a high likelihood of increased political resistance if he loses [4][22]. - Historical data shows that the president's party typically loses seats in midterm elections, with an average loss of 25.7 seats in the House and 3.3 seats in the Senate over the last 20 elections [16][20]. - The significance of the midterm elections is heightened for Trump, as a defeat could severely limit his political ambitions during the final years of his presidency [21][22]. Group 2: Trade Policy - Continued Uncertainty and Conflict - Trump's trade policy is expected to remain unpredictable, with potential for renewed tariff conflicts as a means to rally voter support and shift internal political pressures outward [4][33]. - The Supreme Court's upcoming decision on Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs may lead to alternative legal strategies for implementing tariffs if the ruling is unfavorable [34][38]. - The anticipated increase in tariff revenue could help alleviate fiscal pressures and support Trump's broader economic agenda leading up to the midterm elections [47]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - More Rate Cuts and Lower Credit Quality - The new Federal Reserve chair, expected to take office in May 2026, is likely to implement more aggressive rate cuts than the market anticipates, with projections of at least four rate cuts by the end of next year [5][61]. - Lower interest rates are seen as essential for stimulating economic growth and supporting stock markets, particularly in light of the negative impacts of tariffs [49][51]. - The anticipated shift in monetary policy could lead to a weaker dollar and increased credit challenges, impacting overall market sentiment [48][56]. Group 4: Fiscal Policy - Necessity and Feasibility of Expansion - There is a pressing need for expanded fiscal policies to stimulate demand and counteract the negative effects of tariffs as the midterm elections approach [66][68]. - Increased tariff revenues and reduced fiscal pressure from lower interest rates could provide the necessary funding for expanded fiscal measures without resorting to excessive borrowing [68]. - The experience from the 2018 midterm elections suggests that failure to maintain fiscal expansion could lead to adverse market reactions [68]. Group 5: Foreign Policy - Return to "America First" and Strong Geopolitical Stance - Trump's foreign policy is expected to focus on pragmatic interest exchanges, emphasizing "America First" while managing geopolitical conflicts with limited intervention [69][79]. - Efforts to mediate conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine situation and the Middle East will continue, with a strong emphasis on leveraging economic and military pressure to achieve peace [70][73]. - The approach to foreign policy will likely involve a mix of negotiation and coercion, potentially increasing geopolitical tensions and impacting market risk appetite [79].

Group 1: Dollar Index Analysis - The dollar index attempted to break 100 for the second time, with the first attempt occurring at the end of July 2025, followed by a significant drop due to disappointing non-farm payroll data on August 1[3] - The current macroeconomic environment differs significantly from July, with a lack of economic data and a hawkish stance from Powell leading to a "self-driving" market[4] - In July, the British pound experienced the largest decline among G7 currencies due to ongoing economic weakness in the UK, while this time the Japanese yen is leading the decline following Japan's monetary easing policies[4] Group 2: Future Outlook - The current attempt to break 100 is expected to be more successful than in July, with potential for higher rebound points and longer duration[5] - However, the dollar is not entering a long-term appreciation cycle; it is merely experiencing a rebound[5] - Short-term market expectations are pricing in a greater than 30% probability of no interest rate cuts in December, indicating significant room for policy expectation adjustments[5] - The upcoming announcement of the Federal Reserve chair by the White House is anticipated to negatively impact the dollar[5] - Long-term, the Fed is still in a rate-cutting cycle, and ongoing U.S. debt issues alongside European fiscal measures remain critical concerns[5] - The dollar's rebound may assist in stabilizing gold and silver prices and help equity markets adjust to high valuations[5] - Risks include significant changes in U.S. trade policies and unexpected tariff expansions that could lead to a global economic slowdown[5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent escalation of trade tensions between the U.S. and China, particularly the announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1, and contrasts the market's reaction to this news with previous instances of trade disputes, highlighting a more measured response this time around [2][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The market's reaction to the recent tariff announcement was less severe compared to earlier instances, with the Nasdaq index dropping 3.56% on October 10, which is smaller than the declines observed in April [2]. - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index and the Wind China Concept Technology Leaders Index fell by 6.10% and 6.59%, respectively, both of which were also less than the declines seen in April [2]. - The VIX fear index rose to 21.66 but remained significantly lower than the peak of 60.13 observed in April [2]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors now have more experience and memory regarding trade tensions, leading to a calmer market response; the probability of the 100% tariff being implemented is perceived to be only 23%, compared to less than 15% in April for a potential reduction in tariffs [3]. - The market's perception of the likelihood of President Trump backing down from the tariff threat has increased, as indicated by betting markets [3]. Group 3: Market Stability Expectations - There is a stronger expectation for market stability now compared to April, with ongoing emphasis from policymakers on maintaining a stable capital market [5]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission noted a decrease in annualized volatility of the Shanghai Composite Index during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, indicating improved market health [5]. - Institutional investors have increased their holdings in stock ETFs, with their share rising from 33.0% at the end of 2024 to 37.2% in the first half of 2025, contributing to market stability [5]. Group 4: Valuation and Sensitivity - The current market valuation differs from April, with 18% of stocks exceeding the 95% historical percentile, indicating a higher concentration of high-value stocks [6]. - Margin balances have been rising since June, reaching annual highs, which may increase sensitivity to negative shocks in the market [6][7]. - The S&P 500 index's forecasted price-to-earnings ratio is above the 96th percentile since the end of 1999, suggesting elevated valuation levels [6].

Market Sentiment and Macro Factors - China's exports in September showed resilience with a year-on-year increase of 8.3% in US dollar terms, and imports rose 7.4%, both exceeding expectations. Industrial robot and wind power exports grew strongly, while soybean, iron ore imports reached record highs, and rare earth exports decreased by 31% month-on-month [1]. - The US-China trade friction escalated after Trump's threat to impose additional tariffs, but his subsequent remarks and actions somewhat eased the market's pessimistic sentiment. The impact of this trade friction is expected to be weaker than that in April 2025 [1][2]. - The Fed official Paulson hinted at supporting two more 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year [2]. Stock Market - The stock market opened lower due to Trump's tariff information but recovered some losses with the release of resilient domestic import and export data. The market is expected to remain in a high - level volatile state, with a tendency to rise rather than fall [4]. - The CSI 300 index closed down 0.49% yesterday, and the two - market trading volume decreased by 1608.74 billion yuan. In the futures market, IH decreased with lower volume, while other varieties decreased with higher volume [4]. Bond Market - In the face of the tense US - China trade situation, the A - share market showed resilience, and the bond market's spot bond yield decreased compared to Friday but increased compared to Saturday. If the trade situation is only temporarily tense, it will not change the rhythm of monetary policy, and interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts will be postponed [5]. Shipping Market - The container shipping index (European line) futures (EC) prices were in a low - level volatile state with a slight upward trend. CMA CGM announced a price increase for November on the Asia - to - Northern Europe route [6]. Commodity Market Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices continued to surge. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4130 per ounce, up 3.24%, and SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 50.775 per ounce, up 7.47% [8]. - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates, and long - term funds increased their positions in gold and silver ETFs. The inventory of SHFE silver decreased [9]. Base Metals - Copper prices rebounded strongly, with both domestic and international copper prices reaching high levels. The copper market has returned to the upward channel, but it may be restricted by the high price and weak downstream purchasing willingness [12]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, while alumina is in a weak state, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [13]. - Zinc prices are in a situation of mixed long and short factors. In the short term, they are mainly based on a short - selling logic, and the trading strategy can be to hold long - short spreads [14]. - Tin prices are expected to be in a callback phase, and investors can wait for opportunities to enter the market on the long side [15]. - Lead prices are in a high - level volatile state, with limited upward space [19]. Black Metals - Steel prices are under pressure due to weak fundamentals, with high supply and insufficient demand. The market is waiting for positive signals from the Fourth Plenary Session [21][22]. - Iron ore prices rebounded strongly, but the fundamentals are under pressure, and the price is expected to first rise and then fall, remaining in a range - bound state [23]. - Coking coal and coke prices are at risk of negative feedback, and the trading strategy is to treat them with a volatile mindset and pay attention to the 1 - 5 spread of coking coal [25]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are under pressure due to high supply and weak demand, and the cost support is facing challenges [26]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices rebounded slightly, but the upward space is limited. The market is under pressure from weak demand and increased supply [27]. - LPG prices may be affected by the reduction of PDH profits. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand is slightly weak [28]. - PTA - PX prices are mainly affected by macro - events, and the trading strategy is to wait and see on the long side. The supply of PX is expected to increase, and the demand for polyester is seasonally improved but limited [30]. - MEG prices are under pressure from long - term inventory accumulation. The current coal - based marginal device is close to the cost line, and the price is expected to be in the range of 3850 - 4250 [34]. - Methanol prices are affected by macro - trading. The 01 contract is expected to be in the range of 2250 - 2350, and investors can buy a small amount of bottom - position contracts at low prices [36]. - PP and PE prices are under pressure due to strong supply and weak demand. The trading strategy is to wait and see [39][42]. - Pure benzene and styrene prices are affected by inventory and supply. The short - term market is expected to be volatile, and the trading strategy is to wait and see [43]. - Fuel oil prices maintain a high cracking spread. The supply may be tight, and the demand is relatively stable [43]. - Asphalt prices are affected by cost and demand. The short - term market is expected to be volatile, and the trading strategy is to wait and see [45]. - Urea prices are in a weak state, and the market is waiting for new export quotas and the impact of Sino - US trade conflicts [46]. - Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda prices are expected to be weak. Soda ash has high - level supply pressure, glass has high inventory and weak demand, and caustic soda has high - profit restrictions and uncertain downstream demand [47][48][50]. - Pulp prices are in a weak and volatile state, affected by high inventory and weak downstream demand [50]. - Log prices are expected to have a deep - discount situation again before delivery, and the trading strategy is mainly short - selling [51]. - Propylene prices are affected by cost collapse, and the supply is relatively loose [51]. Agricultural Products - Hog prices are under pressure due to high supply. The trading strategy is to sell on rallies, and attention should be paid to the breeding rhythm and secondary fattening [53]. - Oilseed prices are mainly affected by Sino - US trade relations. Soybean imports may face a gap in the first quarter of next year, and rapeseed meal inventory is expected to decline seasonally [54].