Core Insights - Booking Holdings reported $4.76 billion in revenue for Q1 2025, a year-over-year increase of 7.9% and an EPS of $24.81 compared to $20.39 a year ago, exceeding Zacks Consensus Estimates [1] - The company achieved a revenue surprise of +3.58% and an EPS surprise of +43.83% compared to consensus estimates [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Gross Bookings totaled $46.70 billion, surpassing the average estimate of $46.40 billion [4] - Agency Gross Bookings were $15.50 billion, below the average estimate of $16.38 billion [4] - Merchant Gross Bookings reached $31.20 billion, exceeding the average estimate of $30 billion [4] - Units Sold for Room Nights were 319 million, slightly above the estimate of 317.86 million [4] - Units Sold for Airline Tickets were 16 million, significantly above the estimate of 13.23 million [4] - Rental Car Days sold were 22 million, slightly below the average estimate of 22.89 million [4] - Agency Revenues were $1.56 billion, slightly below the average estimate of $1.59 billion, representing a year-over-year decline of -11.3% [4] - Advertising and Other Revenues were $280 million, above the average estimate of $275.31 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +6.1% [4] - Merchant Revenues were $2.92 billion, exceeding the average estimate of $2.72 billion, with a year-over-year increase of +22.2% [4] Stock Performance - Shares of Booking Holdings returned +6.1% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which changed by -0.8% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The reported operating ratio for Q1 2025 was 60.7%, flat compared to the previous year despite a 90 basis point headwind from fuel and leap year effects [5][16] - Earnings per share for Q1 2025 was $2.70, reflecting a $0.19 or 7% headwind from fuel and leap year [6][16] - Net income for Q1 2025 was $1.6 billion, essentially flat versus last year, with operating income also flat despite a 7% volume growth [7][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Freight revenue grew 1% year-over-year to $5.7 billion, with a 4% increase when excluding fuel surcharge impacts [9][10] - Bulk segment revenue was up 1% due to a 2% increase in volume, while industrial revenue decreased by 1% on a 1% decrease in volume [24][26] - Premium revenue increased by 5% on a 13% increase in volume, reflecting strong customer demand [27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - AAR car loadings were up just over 7% compared to last year, indicating a solid start to Q2 2025 [29] - Challenges are anticipated in the food and beverage sector, particularly in the U.S. beer market, while coal volumes are expected to remain strong [29] - Grain exports into Mexico are expected to remain robust, supported by business development efforts [30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain its three-year targets set during the Investor Day, focusing on EPS growth in the high single to low double-digit range [20][21] - Continued emphasis on service and operational excellence is a key part of the strategy, with a focus on maximizing pricing and efficiency [8][21] - The company is actively pursuing business development opportunities, including new customer acquisitions and expansions [35][36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the uncertainty in the marketplace but expressed confidence in the company's ability to adapt and perform [21][60] - The first quarter performance was viewed positively, with strong volumes and service metrics heading into Q2 [22][57] - Management remains committed to long-term guidance despite current market volatility and challenges [21][72] Other Important Information - Operating expenses for Q1 2025 were $3.7 billion, flat year-over-year, with productivity gains offsetting inflation and volume-related costs [13][16] - The company returned $2.5 billion to shareholders in Q1 2025 through dividends and share repurchases [19] - The adjusted debt to EBITDA ratio was 2.8 times at the end of the quarter, maintaining an A-rating from credit agencies [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: 2025 Guidance and Uncertainty - Management acknowledged the uncertainty in the market but reiterated confidence in achieving long-term targets, emphasizing the importance of operational efficiency [56][61] Question: Revenue Growth Assumptions - Management indicated that while the first quarter was flat, they are optimistic about achieving high single-digit earnings growth, contingent on volume and pricing strategies [68][72] Question: Pricing Strength and Sustainability - Management noted that the strong pricing in Q1 was a result of both inflation catch-up and improved service performance, with expectations for continued pricing strength [80][84] Question: Impact of Tariffs and Trade Policies - Management highlighted the need for clarity regarding tariffs and trade policies, emphasizing the importance of maintaining customer relationships and adapting to changing supply chain patterns [121][123] Question: Resource Management for Volatility - Management confirmed that they maintain a buffer of resources to manage volatility and ensure service delivery, utilizing technology for efficient decision-making [132][136]

Core Viewpoint - Carter's, Inc. is expected to report a decline in both revenue and earnings for the first quarter of 2025, influenced by challenging macroeconomic conditions and reduced consumer demand [1][3][4]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues is $621.3 million, reflecting a 6.1% decrease from the previous year [2]. - The consensus estimate for quarterly earnings is 53 cents per share, indicating a 48% decline from the year-ago quarter [2]. - Carter's has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 45.7%, with the last quarter's earnings beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 39% [2]. Market Conditions and Challenges - The company faces persistent inflation and high interest rates, which are significant hurdles for its core demographic of families with young children [3]. - Consumer demand for Carter's products has weakened due to reduced discretionary income and the absence of pandemic-era financial support [3]. - The retail segment is expected to experience continued softness in consumer spending, while the wholesale business shows some resilience [4]. Financial Performance Expectations - Carter's projected net sales for the first quarter of 2025 are between $615 million and $625 million, down from $661 million in the previous year [7]. - Adjusted earnings are expected to be between 45 and 55 cents per share, a decline from $1.04 reported in the prior-year quarter [7]. - The company anticipates adjusted operating income of $30 million to $35 million, down from $55 million in the year-ago quarter, with an expected adjusted operating income of $31.4 million, representing a 43% year-over-year decrease [7]. Sales Projections - Total sales in the U.S. Retail business are expected to decline in the mid-single-digit to high-single-digit range [8]. - U.S. Wholesale sales are anticipated to decrease by high-single digits year-over-year, while international sales are expected to dip in the mid-single digits [8]. - Comparable sales in the U.S. Retail business are projected to be down mid- to high-single digits, with a model predicting a 6% decline in U.S. Retail and a 6.9% decline in U.S. Wholesale [8]. Cost and Margin Pressures - The company has been experiencing higher selling, general and administrative expenses (SG&A) as a percentage of sales, due to fixed cost deleverage from lower sales and increased distribution and transportation costs [5]. - The higher SG&A expense rate is expected to strain operating margins and reduce profitability [5]. Strategic Initiatives - Carter's is focusing on strategic initiatives to improve long-term performance, including enhancing merchandise assortments and refining inventory management [9]. - The company is implementing measures such as improved pricing and optimized inventory management, along with strengthening its e-commerce capabilities [9]. Valuation Perspective - From a valuation standpoint, Carter's is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 9.89X, which is below its five-year high of 21.14X and the industry average of 21.58X, presenting an attractive opportunity for investors [12]. - CRI's shares have lost 30.5% in the past three months, compared to a 24.5% decline in the industry [13].