Harley-Davidson, Inc. ( HOG ) is an iconic motorcycle manufacturer facing tariff impact, secular decline, an aging customer-base and declining market shares. The company's stock is heavily shorted and, based on our analysis, extremely undervalued, even for a company inWe write about all kinds of investments, as long as their price is reasonable. Long-only equity and sometimes debt. We focus on value names with strong down-side protection, as we are making heavily concentrated investments without much care f ...

Webcast Conference Call Scheduled for 8 a.m. CST MILWAUKEE, Jan. 26, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE: HOG) will release its fourth quarter and year-end 2025 financial results before market hours Tuesday, February 10, 2026. The public is invited to attend an audio webcast from 8-9 a.m. CST. Harley-Davidson, Inc. senior management will discuss financial results, developments in the business, and the Company's outlook. A slide presentation supporting the discussion will be available prior to ...

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) is included among the 14 Best Mid-Cap Dividend Stocks to Buy Now. Morgan Stanley Sees Muted Demand Trends Weighing on Harley-Davidson (HOG) On January 16, Morgan Stanley cut its price target on Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) to $18 from $21, while keeping an Underweight rating on the stock. In its 2026 outlook note, the firm said gaming, lodging, and leisure trends were “muted” in 2025, with the few pockets of stronger momentum mostly tied to companies serving older and ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth and performance of the motorcycle industry in China, particularly focusing on the production and sales data from Luoyang Shengjiang Hongqi Motorcycle Co., Ltd. for November 2025, indicating a positive trend in the market [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Luoyang Shengjiang Hongqi Motorcycle Co., Ltd. produced 229 motorcycles in November 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.57% [1]. - The sales volume for the same period was also 229 units, showing a year-on-year growth of 9.57%, with a production and sales rate of 100% and no inventory backlog [1]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The report is part of a comprehensive analysis provided by Zhiyan Consulting, which focuses on the motorcycle industry in China from 2026 to 2032, offering market assessments and development strategies [1]. - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing tailored consulting services to support investment decisions [1].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth in motorcycle production and sales in China, specifically focusing on the performance of Luoyang Northern Enterprises Group Co., Ltd. in November 2025, indicating a positive trend in the motorcycle industry [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Luoyang Northern Enterprises Group Co., Ltd. produced 42,358 motorcycles in November 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.01% [1]. - The sales volume for the same period reached 44,660 units, showing a year-on-year growth of 7.93% [1]. - The production and sales rate was recorded at 105.43%, with a clearance of 2,302 units [1]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The data is sourced from the China Automotive Industry (Motorcycle) Production and Sales Quick Report, compiled by Zhiyan Consulting [1]. - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, providing comprehensive industry research reports and tailored consulting services [1].

Core Viewpoint - Donut Lab claims to have developed the world's first mass-producible all-solid-state battery, set to be launched at CES 2026, marking a significant milestone in the electrification of vehicles [1][14]. Group 1: Product Features - The all-solid-state battery offers an energy density of 400Wh/kg, enabling longer range, lighter structure, and unprecedented flexibility in vehicle design [1]. - It can be fully charged in just 5 minutes without the need to limit charging to 80%, supporting safe and reliable full discharge [2]. - Unlike traditional lithium-ion batteries, this solid-state battery has minimal capacity degradation over its lifespan, with a design life of up to 100,000 cycles [4]. - The battery maintains over 99% capacity in extreme conditions, such as -30°C and above 100°C, without any signs of fire or degradation [4]. Group 2: Material and Cost - The solid-state battery is made from abundant, low-cost materials that are geopolitically secure, avoiding reliance on rare or sensitive elements, and shows lower costs compared to lithium-ion batteries [6]. Group 3: Application and Market Impact - The battery's size is comparable to a large smartphone, making it suitable for various applications, including drones [8]. - Donut Lab plans to combine these batteries into larger 5kWh power units, with four units fitting into the frame of the Verge TS Pro motorcycle [10]. - The Verge motorcycles, powered by Donut Lab's solid-state battery, will be the first mass-produced vehicles featuring this technology, with a range of 600 kilometers on a single charge [12]. - Donut Lab is collaborating with WATTEV to create a lightweight modular electric vehicle platform, highlighting the broader implications of solid-state battery technology in the electric vehicle sector [14].

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's independent motorcycle companies are expected to experience a dual trend of high-end development and international expansion, with increasing domestic sales concentration [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - In 2025, domestic sales of mid-to-large displacement motorcycles (over 250cc) reached 374,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, achieving a record penetration rate of 11.1% [2]. - Exports of mid-to-large displacement motorcycles surged to 449,000 units, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 59.1% [2]. - The market structure is evolving, with the share of 450cc models increasing to approximately 34%, and the export of 800cc models marking a significant milestone for domestic brands [2]. Group 2: Sales Forecast for 2026 - Domestic sales of mid-to-large displacement motorcycles are projected to reach 432,000 and 477,000 units in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.8% and 10.5% [3]. - The overseas market for mid-to-large displacement motorcycles is expected to exceed 5 million units, with exports forecasted to maintain high growth rates, reaching 540,000 and 718,000 units in 2025 and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 58.4% and 33.0% [3]. Group 3: Structural Trends - The trend towards high-end products is expected to accelerate, with major domestic companies launching multiple models of 500cc and above in 2025, leading to a projected increase in the share of 500cc-800cc motorcycles to 22% and 25% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [4]. - The export structure is stabilizing, with the share of 500cc-800cc models expected to rise to 17.4% and 19.5% in 2025 and 2026 [5]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The concentration of the mid-to-large displacement motorcycle market remains high, with the CR3 (the market share of the top three companies) at approximately 53.6% in the first ten months of 2025 [6]. - As consumer preferences evolve, leading domestic brands like Changan, Longxin, and Qianjiang are expected to capture more market share due to their better understanding of local consumer preferences and superior product quality [6]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The focus on mid-to-large displacement product platforms, popular product models, regional breakthroughs, and brand storytelling positions domestic motorcycle companies for sustainable global growth, with recommendations for Changan Power (603129.SH), Longxin General (603766.SH), and Qianjiang Motorcycle (000913.SZ) [7].

Core Viewpoint - The motorcycle industry is experiencing growth, with significant increases in sales for various displacement categories, indicating a positive trend in consumer demand and market dynamics [1][2][3]. Sales Data Summary - For motorcycles with displacement above 250cc, November sales reached 61,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 11.3% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%. Cumulative sales from January to November totaled 883,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.3% [1]. - In the 250ml to 400ml displacement category, November sales were 35,000 units, up 12.6% year-on-year but down 2.5% month-on-month. Cumulative sales for the year reached 480,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 25.6% [2]. - For the 400ml to 500ml category, November sales were 12,000 units, down 16.8% year-on-year but up 13.8% month-on-month. Cumulative sales were 208,000 units, showing a year-on-year decline of 3.1% [2]. - In the 500ml to 800ml category, November sales were 13,000 units, a significant year-on-year increase of 55.7% and a month-on-month increase of 1.5%. Cumulative sales reached 174,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 121.1% [2]. - For motorcycles over 800cc, November sales were 1,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6.5% but a month-on-month decrease of 37.1%. Cumulative sales for the year were 21,000 units, up 65.4% year-on-year [2]. Market Share Insights - Chuanfeng Power achieved November sales of 12,000 units in the 250cc+ category, with a market share of 20.3%, reflecting a 1.5 percentage point increase month-on-month. The cumulative market share for the year was 20.2%, up 0.4 percentage points compared to the full year of 2024 [3]. - Longxin General also reported November sales of 12,000 units in the 250cc+ category, with a market share of 19.6%, increasing by 1.4 percentage points month-on-month. The cumulative market share for the year was 14.8%, up 0.6 percentage points compared to 2024 [3]. - Qianjiang Motorcycle's November sales in the 250cc+ category were 4,000 units, down 39.7% year-on-year, with a market share of 6.8%, increasing by 0.1 percentage points month-on-month. The cumulative market share for the year was 12.4%, down 4.4 percentage points compared to 2024 [3]. Industry Outlook - The current industry perspective suggests a focus on key companies such as Geely Automobile, Xpeng Motors, BYD, Chuanfeng Power, and others, indicating a strategic interest in firms that are positioned for growth and innovation in the automotive sector [3].

Core Viewpoint - The motorcycle industry in China is experiencing mixed performance, with specific companies showing varied production and sales trends, as highlighted by recent data from the China Automotive Industry (Motorcycle) production and sales report [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Qianjiang Motorcycle (000913) and other listed companies are part of the broader analysis of the motorcycle market in China, which includes companies like Xinlong Health (002105), Zhenghe Industrial (003033), and others [1]. - Luoyang Northern Enterprises Group Co., Ltd. reported a motorcycle production of 44,341 units in October 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.68% [1]. - The same company achieved sales of 47,345 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.57%, resulting in a production-sales ratio of 106.77% [1]. Group 2: Market Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting provides a comprehensive assessment of the motorcycle industry in China, projecting trends and strategies from 2026 to 2032 [1]. - The data indicates that while production has declined, sales have increased, suggesting a potential inventory clearance with 3,004 units reported as unsold [1]. - Zhiyan Consulting emphasizes its expertise in providing in-depth industry research and tailored consulting services to support investment decisions in the motorcycle sector [1].

Core Thesis - Harley-Davidson, Inc. is viewed as a deep-value investment opportunity, trading below tangible book value, indicating that the market assigns little value to its strong brand presence in the motorcycle industry [2][3]. Company Overview - Founded in 1903, Harley-Davidson is a key player in American motorcycling culture, known for its strong brand loyalty [3]. - The company's stock is currently trading at $21.25, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 5.09 and 6.76 respectively [1]. Valuation Insights - The current market valuation suggests that Harley-Davidson's intangible assets, including its brand and financing arm, are being valued at nearly zero, reflecting investor pessimism rather than the company's intrinsic worth [3]. - A sum-of-the-parts analysis indicates that the intrinsic value of Harley-Davidson could approach the low-$30s per share, suggesting a potential upside of over 50% [7]. Challenges Faced - The company's valuation discount is attributed to both self-inflicted challenges, such as past management decisions and a shift in focus towards younger demographics, and external macroeconomic pressures like high interest rates and weak consumer sentiment [4][5]. - Recent leadership changes are aimed at refocusing on core operations and profitability, which may help address these challenges [5]. Strategic Moves - Harley-Davidson's decision to sell a 10% stake in Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS) has raised investor concerns, but this move is seen as a way to de-risk the business while maintaining operational control [6]. - The transaction, which transfers $4 billion of loans off the balance sheet, is expected to bring in institutional investors like KKR and PIMCO, validating the value of HDFS [6].