Government Shutdown Impact - The government shutdown negatively impacted the current quarter GDP, preventing it from reaching its expected potential [2] - The shutdown led to a plunge in consumer confidence in the government [5] - The reopening of the government is expected to restore confidence and provide crucial economic data for policymaking [5] Economic Outlook - The economy was robust, with over 4% growth in both the second and third quarters, excluding the federal sector [4] - The administration is optimistic about real GDP growth in 2026 [6] - Lowering interest rates is crucial for increasing affordability, with mortgage rates already at 52-week lows [11] Fiscal Policy & Spending - Federal spending has decreased, with 74% of last year's fiscal deficit occurring under the current administration [10] - Republicans aim to maintain fiscal discipline to lower interest rates [11] - Discussions involve subsidies, including those related to Obamacare, with concerns about eligibility and potential misuse [9][10] Government Funding & Negotiations - A continuing resolution (CR) is expected to pass, providing short-term funding and preventing another shutdown in January [8] - Negotiations are ongoing, with potential disagreements on spending levels and priorities [8][9]

For economists, the shutdown has been a daily struggle to find structure and meaning in a world without government data. “It’s a little sad.” https://t.co/NCoehNbGva ...

When do we get the economic data releases. We're craving data, especially those numbers on jobs. >> Yeah. Yeah.You know, that I haven't been briefed on that yet because there's been, you know, quite a lot of disruption because of this terrible shutdown. And so, for example, I've been told that some of the surveys were never actually completed. So, we'll never perhaps even know what happened in that month.And so we're going to be staring a little bit in in cloudy cloudy weather uh for a while until we get th ...

Economic Overview - Last week's economic data presented mixed signals, with consumer sentiment dropping to a near-record low and the manufacturing sector continuing its contraction, while the services sector showed signs of expansion [1] - The S&P 500 experienced its first weekly loss in over a month, declining by 1.6% [10] Employment Data - The October ADP employment report indicated that the private sector added 42,000 jobs, surpassing the expected addition of 32,000 jobs, following a loss of 29,000 jobs in September [3] - Job gains were primarily driven by the trade, transportation, and utilities sector, which added 47,000 jobs, with large companies contributing significantly by adding 74,000 jobs [4] Consumer Sentiment - The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell over 6% to 50.3, marking its lowest level since 2022 and reflecting a nearly 30% decline compared to the previous year [5][6] - The decline in consumer confidence was widespread, with notable exceptions for consumers with significant stock holdings [6] Inflation Expectations - Near-term inflation expectations slightly increased from 4.6% in October to 4.7% in November, while long-term expectations decreased from 3.9% to 3.6% for the five-year outlook [7] Manufacturing and Services Sector - The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted for the eighth consecutive month, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI falling to 48.7, indicating a faster rate of contraction [8] - Conversely, the U.S. services sector returned to expansion with the ISM Services PMI rising to 52.4, marking its highest level since February and indicating eight months of expansion this year [9] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 saw fluctuations, ultimately closing down 1.6%, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) reflecting the same decline [10] - The 10-year Treasury yield ended the week at 4.11%, while the 2-year note finished at 3.55% [10] Federal Reserve Outlook - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 66% likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting, with markets anticipating two additional cuts in 2026 [11] Upcoming Economic Data - The ongoing government shutdown has delayed key economic indicators, including the Consumer and Producer Price Indices and Retail Sales report, leading to a light economic calendar for the week ahead [12][13]

The real red pill is realizing that most of the economic data you see is fake and inaccurate. ...

Economic Impact - US government shutdown caused nearly all official data releases to pause [1] - It is questionable whether anyone can make sense of America's economy without official data [1]

Thanks to America’s government shutdown nearly all official data releases have been put on pause. Can anyone make sense of America’s economy without them? https://t.co/SRmmAxt24A ...

The longest US government shutdown in record is consigning currency traders to their worst year in decades as a dearth of economic data clouds the outlook for the dollar https://t.co/FclODJaFPh ...

Euro-zone economic data aren’t diverging from the European Central Bank’s outlook but policymakers are keeping their options open, according to Governing Council member Joachim Nagel https://t.co/64AZNUaCzO ...

The US government will probably be unable to release inflation data for October, the White House said Friday, citing the ongoing government shutdown. https://t.co/uTxmPSTieR ...