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Ray Dalio pushes gold as shield as US markets risk ‘heart attack'
New York Post· 2025-09-11 17:01
Group 1 - Ray Dalio warns that American markets are facing a financial "heart attack" due to rising US debt costs, which are constraining economic growth [1][6] - Dalio recommends that investors allocate 10% to 15% of their portfolios to gold, highlighting its unique uncorrelation with other assets and its tendency to rise during crises [2][3] - Gold is currently trading near record highs, with spot gold at $3,641.10 per ounce, reflecting a nearly 40% increase year-to-date, and gold futures at $3,680.60 per ounce [2][14] Group 2 - Dalio has consistently advocated for gold as a hedge against global risks, emphasizing its importance during periods of money printing and debt accumulation [3][4] - Despite stepping down from Bridgewater, Dalio continues to emphasize the need for investors to reassess their holdings in a debt-laden environment [6][7] - The surge in gold prices indicates that investors are shifting focus from equities to gold as a hedge against potential economic instability and geopolitical tensions [10][14] Group 3 - Central banks, including those in China, India, and Russia, have increased their gold holdings this year, diversifying away from the dollar [14] - Historical data shows that gold has performed well during market downturns, such as in 2008 and 2020, reinforcing Dalio's view of gold as a reliable insurance policy [15]
Digital Gold: A Story Still Being Written
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-10 14:53
Market Performance - Bitcoin experienced a decline of approximately 6.5% in August, marking its first monthly drop since March, despite reaching a new all-time high of $125,000 earlier in the month [1] - Ether, on the other hand, saw a significant increase of nearly 19%, raising its market capitalization share to around 13% [1] - Bitcoin funds faced net outflows, indicating profit-taking, while ether ETFs attracted substantial inflows, resulting in record levels of assets under management [1] Trading Activity - Market activity remained high, with spot trading volumes exceeding the twelve-month average, which is atypical for the summer season [2] - Open interest in bitcoin and ether options reached new highs, with August recording BTC option trading volumes at $145 billion [2] - Implied volatility remained relatively low but increased towards the end of the month, suggesting potential underestimation of risk in the options market [2] Gold vs. Bitcoin - Gold prices surged due to a combination of factors including falling rate expectations, persistent inflation, trade deficits, a weaker dollar, and geopolitical risks [3] - The dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook raised concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence, contributing to gold's price increase [3] - In contrast, bitcoin's price declined on the same day the news about the Fed Governor's dismissal was announced [3] Correlation Analysis - The correlation between bitcoin and gold has been inconsistent, with short-term correlations fluctuating between 12% and 16% over 30- and 90-day periods [4] - Over a longer 180-day horizon, the average correlation is slightly higher but still low, indicating that the two assets do not consistently move together [4] - Since 2024, the average 180-day rolling correlation has increased to around 60%, suggesting that the 'digital gold' narrative may be gaining traction among investors as the asset class matures [4]
Bitcoin Belongs In An 'Ideal' Portfolio, Says BlackRock Executive, But Thinks A 5% Allocation Is High
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-10 10:24
Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock, said Tuesday that an “ideal” investment portfolio should have exposure to hard assets such as gold and Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC). Bitcoin A Hedge Against Fiat Depreciation? During an interview with CNBC, Rieder said that gold, Bitcoin and assets that provide a “ballast” against potential currency depreciation should be on investors’ radar. When asked about the percentage of Bitcoin allocation in a portfolio, Rieder said that 5% seems ...
Bitcoin Belongs In An 'Ideal' Portfolio, Says BlackRock Executive, But Thinks A 5% Allocation Is High - BlackRock (NYSE:BLK)
Benzinga· 2025-09-10 10:24
Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock, said Tuesday that an “ideal” investment portfolio should have exposure to hard assets such as gold and Bitcoin BTC/USD. Bitcoin A Hedge Against Fiat Depreciation?During an interview with CNBC, Rieder said that gold, Bitcoin and assets that provide a “ballast” against potential currency depreciation should be on investors’ radar.When asked about the percentage of Bitcoin allocation in a portfolio, Rieder said that 5% seems “high” to h ...
Cathie Wood predicts Bitcoin will outperform gold despite setback
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-08 23:16
Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood thinks Bitcoin will outperform gold despite the recent setback. On Sep. 6, Wood appeared on ARK's "In The Know" show on YouTube and compared the current price trends of Bitcoin and gold. Bitcoin advocates often call the cryptocurrency "digital gold" due to the hedge both assets tend to offer against inflation. It has led analysts to compare the two assets. The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio is a metric used to compare the relative value of Bitcoin and gold. It measures how many ounces o ...
全球宏观策略:做多黄金突破-Global Macro Strategy Buy breakout in gold, stop out of long WIG 20
2025-09-04 15:08
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Global Macro Strategy with a specific emphasis on gold and Polish equities (WIG20) Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Gold Market Outlook**: - The macro conditions are bullish for gold due to rising stagflation risks in the US, with leading indicators suggesting further labor market weakness and increasing CPI components [2][10] - Strong global gold ETF inflows were observed post-Jackson Hole, indicating a shift towards gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty [2][10] - Spot gold has broken out of a four-month range, supported by strong ETF flows and performance during Asian trading hours, suggesting continued upward momentum [3][15] 2. **Investment Strategy**: - A new trade was initiated to buy gold spot at $3476.89 with a target of $3750 and a stop at $3330, risking $500k [8] - The strategy includes an overweight position in precious metals within the Global Asset Allocation portfolio, reflecting a bullish macro setup for gold [10][18] 3. **Polish Equity Market**: - The decision to close out the long WIG20 position was made due to negative domestic factors, including a rise in corporate tax on banks and the dismissal of Orlen's CFO, which undermined market sentiment [4][25] - The initial bullish outlook on WIG20 was based on strong corporate fundamentals and positive geopolitical developments, which have since deteriorated [25] Additional Important Content 1. **Technical Analysis**: - The correlation between gold returns and 10-year UST yields has shifted, indicating that gold may receive a flight-to-safety bid as inflation risks persist [12][16] - Historical backtesting shows that buying gold when gold mining stocks outperform has yielded better returns, reinforcing the current bullish stance on gold [18][21] 2. **Market Dynamics**: - The Fed's dovish stance and the potential for stickier inflation could lead to increased demand for gold as a hedge, especially as financial conditions remain loose [10][12] - The labor market's ongoing deterioration is expected to influence the Fed's policy decisions, further supporting gold prices [10] 3. **Risk Considerations**: - Risks to the gold trade include potential improvements in US labor data, which could impact gold's attractiveness as a hedge [8][10] - The Polish equity market faces significant headwinds from political and economic developments, necessitating a cautious approach [4][25]
Commodity ETF (USCI) Hits New 52-Week High
ZACKS· 2025-08-26 18:25
United States Commodity ETF (USCI) is probably on the radar for investors seeking momentum. The fund just hit a 52-week high and moved up 31.55% from its 52-week low price of $58.51 per share.Are more gains in store for this ETF? Let’s take a quick look at the fund and the near-term outlook on it to get a better idea of where it might be headed.USCI in FocusThe underlying SummerHaven Dynamic Commodity Index Total Return seeks to reflect the performance of a portfolio of 14 commodity futures. The product cha ...
Billionaire Philippe Laffont Sold 53% of Coatue's AMD Stake in Favor of an ETF Whose Underlying Asset Has Gained Nearly 165,000,000% in 15 Years
The Motley Fool· 2025-08-26 07:06
Core Insights - Coatue Management's billionaire investor Philippe Laffont has been selling shares of AMD for two years while increasing investments in the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF during the second quarter of 2025 [1][15]. Group 1: AMD Investment Activity - Laffont has significantly reduced Coatue's stake in AMD, from 13,974,624 shares at the midpoint of 2023 to 1,530,241 shares by June 30, 2025, representing a 53% reduction in the remaining stake during the second quarter [8][9]. - The selling of AMD shares is attributed to profit-taking, as Laffont's initial investments were made when AMD shares traded between $60 and $100, while much of the selling occurred when shares were priced between $100 and $200 [9][10]. - Concerns about AMD's competitiveness against Nvidia in AI-accelerated data centers are raised, as AMD's market share in this segment remains minimal compared to Nvidia's dominance [11]. Group 2: Bitcoin ETF Investment - Laffont purchased 56,508 shares of the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, valued at approximately $3.5 million, indicating a strategic move into cryptocurrency investments [16]. - The underlying asset, Bitcoin, has experienced a staggering increase of nearly 165,000,000% over the past 15 years, making the ETF an attractive option for exposure to Bitcoin without direct ownership [17]. - The investment in Bitcoin is seen as a hedge against inflation, especially in light of the expanding U.S. money supply and the capped supply of Bitcoin at 21 million tokens [18].
买房一次性付清还是还贷30年?差别大了去了!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-26 05:18
Core Viewpoint - The debate between "paying in full" and "30-year mortgage" continues, impacting the quality of life and wealth planning for ordinary families [1] Economic Costs - The main advantage of paying in full is "zero interest," with a 1 million yuan loan at a 3.5% annual interest rate resulting in approximately 610,000 yuan in interest over 30 years, increasing total costs by 60% [2] - Full payment buyers often receive discounts of 2%-5% from developers, with some second-hand sellers lowering prices, such as a 500 million yuan property saving 100,000 yuan with a 2% discount [2] - Mortgage buyers can use "time leverage" to hedge against inflation, as the real burden of monthly payments decreases over time, especially if remaining funds are invested in products yielding 5% annually [4] - However, in an amortized repayment model, over 60% of payments in the first 10 years are interest, highlighting the "interest trap" [4] Liquidity of Funds - Full payment buyers lock significant funds into real estate, facing liquidity risks if emergencies arise, as seen in a case where a homeowner had to sell at a 15% discount and still couldn't sell after six months [5] - Mortgage buyers retain more emergency funds; for instance, a 30% down payment on a 500 million yuan property requires only 150 million yuan upfront, leaving 350 million yuan for investment or savings [5] - If this remaining amount is invested in stable products yielding 4%, it can cover part of the monthly mortgage, but investment failures or income interruptions pose risks, with a 2.3 percentage point increase in mortgage default rates among buyers under 30 since five years ago [5] Psychological Pressure - Full payment buyers report stronger feelings of security, with some indicating improved sleep quality due to the absence of debt [6] - However, this security may come with opportunity costs, as a decline in property value can lead to greater asset depreciation for full payment buyers [6] - Mortgage buyers experience ongoing pressure, with some reporting that monthly payments consume 60% of their income, affecting their lifestyle choices [6] - A bank survey indicates that after five years of repayment, 76% of mortgage holders feel their financial pressure is manageable [6] Decision-Making Recommendations - Experts suggest that buyers should consider three factors: 1. Financial reserves: If liquid assets cover full payment with over six months of emergency funds, full payment may be viable; otherwise, a mortgage is safer [7] 2. Investment capability: If stable returns exceed the loan interest rate (e.g., over 4%), a mortgage can enhance wealth; otherwise, full payment is more advantageous [9] 3. Risk tolerance: Conservative families may prefer full payment to avoid uncertainty, while aggressive families might use mortgages to expand asset size [9] Current Policy Environment - The policy landscape is also crucial, with first-time home loan rates dropping to 3.15% in 2025 and increased public housing loan limits, easing mortgage access [8] - However, the real estate market is becoming more polarized, with declining liquidity in some third and fourth-tier cities, increasing depreciation risks for full payment buyers [8] - Ultimately, neither payment method is inherently superior; the choice depends on individual circumstances, emphasizing the need for long-term financial health over short-term temptations [8]
Coinsilium Group at the vanguard of this new era for Bitcoin treasury
Proactiveinvestors NA· 2025-08-20 15:23
Core Insights - The Bitcoin treasury sector has rapidly transitioned from niche to mainstream, attracting significant investment during a prolonged funding drought for growth companies [1][2] - Coinsilium Group Limited has raised £17 million to invest in Bitcoin, capitalizing on the recent price surge [3][4] Industry Overview - Bitcoin treasury involves companies holding traditional assets while investing surplus cash in Bitcoin, allowing them to benefit from its value appreciation [3][4] - The current price of Bitcoin is around $120,000, with forecasts suggesting it could rise to $200,000 next year, and potentially reach $1 million within five years [5] - The US leads in Bitcoin treasury adoption, with companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla holding substantial crypto assets [5] Regulatory Environment - The Genuis Act by US President Donald Trump aims to provide regulatory clarity for stablecoins, which may positively impact the broader cryptocurrency market [6] - The UK government appears less enthusiastic about embracing crypto compared to previous administrations, despite strong retail demand [7] Company Developments - Coinsilium has established a subsidiary, Forza!, focused on Bitcoin treasury management, currently holding approximately 181.96 Bitcoin valued at nearly $22 million [8] - The company has a history of nurturing blockchain innovation and is exploring opportunities for acquisitions to enhance Bitcoin generation [10][11] Market Dynamics - The demand for Bitcoin is driven by retail investors and institutional interest, fueled by distrust in fiat currencies and the cryptocurrency's role as an inflation hedge [4][5] - Coinsilium's market capitalization does not currently reflect the potential value of its portfolio investments, which may mature and provide unexpected value [11]