From @WSJopinion: If Tennessee Democrat Aftyn Behn manages to make it a tight race in so red a district, what does that say for Republicans’ prospects of keeping their majority in next year’s midterm elections? writes @wjmcgurnhttps://t.co/O92CpfcTJl ...

Election Overview - A special election in Tennessee's 7th congressional district is coming up in less than two weeks, offering insights into voter sentiment ahead of the 2026 midterms [1][3] - The district is described as solidly Republican, but recent election trends suggest potential competitiveness [1][4] - Former Vice President Kamala Harris made an appearance in support of the Democratic candidate [2] Recent Election Trends - Democrats overperformed in recent elections in New Jersey and Virginia compared to the 2024 election results [5] - In New Jersey, the Democratic margin increased from Trump losing by 6 points to a 14-point win [5] - In Virginia, the Democratic margin increased from Harris winning by just under 6 points to a 15-point win [5] - In four special House elections this year, Democrats have overperformed relative to 2024 [6] - In Florida's first district, the Republican win decreased from 37 points to 15 points [6] - In Florida's sixth district, the Republican win decreased from 30 points to 14 points [6] Tennessee 7th District Analysis - Trump won Tennessee's 7th district by 22 points in the last election and by 15 points in 2020 [7] - If the Democratic candidate can narrow the margin to single digits, it would signal momentum for the party heading into the midterms [8][10] - Lower voter turnout and increased Democratic voter motivation could make the race more competitive [8] Republican Strategy - Republicans plan to portray the Democratic candidate as a progressive, labeling her the "AOC of Tennessee," hoping to use this narrative nationally in 2026 [9] - A significant Republican win without a drop-off in support would validate the effectiveness of these attacks for future elections [9]

Redistricting Implications - The Texas redistricting decision could have major implications for the 2026 midterm elections [1][2][3] - California voters overwhelmingly approved new congressional lines that could net Democrats up to five more seats in the next year's House election [3] - The redistricting situation in Texas is unusual because it's happening outside the typical ten-year census cycle [4][5] Legal and Political Responses - The Texas redistricting decision is expected to be appealed, potentially reaching the Supreme Court [1] - Gavin Newsom stated California would "fight fire with fire," indicating a potential retaliatory approach to redistricting [4] - The courts are likely to expedite these redistricting cases due to the upcoming midterm elections [5] Midterm Election Impact - The redistricting process needs to be resolved quickly because voting is happening soon, with primaries in Texas in March [6][7] - The redistricting may influence candidates' decisions on whether to run again [7]

shutdown's over. There was political damage for Republicans. The question is though, is it temporary or is this something that's going to linger into 2026.So, what you're looking at here are two past shutdowns, two of the most high-profile of recent history. 9596, Bill Clinton was president, Republicans had Congress, Speaker N. Gingrich, and then 2013, this was Obama's second term.Republicans in the House had a fight with Obama over Obamacare funding. What I'm showing you here is this is the generic congres ...

America’s last elections before next year’s midterms have given Democrats hope https://t.co/SdlWf3Cmlr ...

Allies of President Trump and Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are looking to the Make America Healthy Again movement to boost GOP prospects in next year’s midterm elections https://t.co/27Jxu2Ut52 ...

I want to bring in former Obama White House communications director Jen Paul Ner, former Obama White House deputy chief of staff for operations and campaign manager for Obama 2012's re-election, Jim Msina, and former press secretary to former House Speaker John Boehner and Paul Ryan. MSNBC political analyst Brendan Buck. Great to have all of you there here. So, Jen, and I guess there because you're not here with me, but Jen, how do you Dems keep this going? Well, I think that um what the results sort of ref ...

Election Analysis & Midterm Outlook - NBC News poll shows Democrats leading by eight points in the generic ballot for the 2026 midterm elections [2] - The generic ballot was tight in the fall of this year, which initially gave Republicans hope for the 2026 midterms [2] - Trump's low marks on the economy and blame for the government shutdown contributed to the Democrats' advantage [3] - Results in Virginia and New Jersey are consistent with the Democrats' eight-point lead in the generic ballot [3] Key Factors & Potential Implications - Trump's numbers have fallen, indicating a potential shift in voter sentiment [3] - The Democratic lead in the generic ballot suggests a potentially accurate finding [5] - The results in politically competitive parts of Virginia and New Jersey could be indicative of trends in swing districts next year [4]

Election Analysis & Market Implications - PIMCO is monitoring off-year elections to test the durability of trends observed in 2024, particularly regarding President Trump's influence and Republican inroads with minorities and younger men [2][3] - These elections could provide clues about the durability of trends seen in 2024 and the effectiveness of the shutdown strategy for Democrats [4][5] - A decisive win by one party in New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City could correlate with the 2026 midterm elections [8] - The Supreme Court's review of the Voting Rights Act is a significant issue, potentially leading to secular trends benefiting Republicans and impacting the House in 2026 and beyond [18][19] Candidate Performance & Messaging - The performance of candidates like Mikey Cheryl in New Jersey is being closely watched, with her campaign potentially being less impactful than expected [6] - Democrats can learn from candidates like Mandani, who, like Trump, effectively communicates on economic issues and understands voter concerns about affordability [11][12] - Mandani's focus on "kitchen table issues" like gas and groceries resonates with voters, similar to Trump's approach in 2024 [12] Specific Races & Referendums - The New Jersey race is significant because Harris won it by only 6 percentage points, compared to Biden's nearly 16 percentage points, potentially indicating shifting trends [7] - Proposition 50 in California is important due to its impact on redistricting and potential benefits for Gavin Newsom's presidential aspirations and Democrats' efforts to counter Republican redistricting [17] - Prediction markets suggest a high probability (e g 84% or 90% or 98%) of certain candidates winning, but surprises are still possible [13][19]

Kinley Salmon, our Latin America correspondent, looks at Argentina’s midterm elections https://t.co/OJ1njOPcqd ...