Core Insights - Michael Gray has extensive experience in capital markets and fixed income asset management, having founded Gray Capital Management LLC and previously served as Head of Taxable Fixed Income at Fidelity Investments [1] Group 1 - Michael Gray holds an MBA in Finance from Wharton and a BA in Economics from Union College, indicating a strong educational background in finance and economics [1]

Core Viewpoint - The state of the labor market is critical for determining the Federal Reserve's future actions, with expectations of a weaker labor market leading to a more dovish Fed stance than currently anticipated [2][3]. Economic Outlook - The expectation is for one more rate cut from the Fed, while the market is pricing in two or more cuts [4]. - Growth is expected to hold up better, and inflation is anticipated to improve, which will lead the Fed to adopt an accommodative policy [5]. - The fixed income market is projected to be less volatile in the coming year compared to the previous year, with a return to a carry trade keeping long-term rates stable [6]. Monetary Policy Divergence - There is a divergence in monetary policy globally, with some countries tightening while the US and China are expected to maintain accommodative policies [7]. - Recent Fed votes showed significant divergence among members regarding rate cuts, highlighting the importance of upcoming economic data [8]. Equity Market Expectations - The equity market outlook for 2026 is constructive, with expectations of increased nominal growth and strong earnings supported by fiscal stimulus and deregulation [8][9]. - Fiscal stimulus is expected to be front-loaded in the first half of 2026, which includes tax refunds and incentives for capital expenditures [10]. Fed Chair Impact - The credibility of the Fed chair is crucial for maintaining bond market stability, and the leadership of the new chair will significantly influence this credibility [12][14]. - All candidates for the Fed chair position are viewed as credible, and the independence of the Fed is seen as a gradual process rather than a binary state [13].

Core Viewpoint - The race for the next Federal Reserve chair is narrowing down to two candidates: Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh, with Warsh gaining ground on Hassett as the preferred choice by the president [1][3]. Candidate Profiles - Kevin Warsh is perceived as more hawkish compared to Kevin Hassett, who is seen as closely aligned with the president's views [4]. - Both candidates will join a Federal Reserve that already has members appointed by previous administrations, which may limit their influence in the short term [5]. Upcoming Events - The first Federal Reserve meeting with the new chair is scheduled for June 17, which is anticipated to significantly impact market expectations regarding interest rate cuts, with odds shifting from 20% to 50% for a rate cut in June [6]. Potential Changes to the Federal Reserve - There are discussions about the possibility of changing the makeup of regional Fed presidents, which would require congressional action [7][8]. - The administration's ability to further influence the Federal Reserve may depend on ongoing legal cases regarding the president's authority to appoint and remove governors [7][8].

Well, that's what we're getting. The explanations. It's become a tradition lately for Fed officials to explain as soon as the blackout lifts why they dissented and the blackout has lifted.So we got a few minutes ago Austan Goolsbee, comments from the Chicago Fed saying basically people are telling him inflation worries them more than jobs. Goolsbee said almost all business people and consumers that we have spoken to in the district lately identify prices as the main concern. I remain optimistic that interes ...

Well, that's what we're getting. The explanations. It's become a tradition lately for Fed officials to explain as soon as the blackout lifts why they dissented and the blackout has lifted.So we got a few minutes ago Austan Goolsbee, comments from the Chicago Fed saying basically people are telling him inflation worries them more than jobs. Goolsbee said almost all business people and consumers that we have spoken to in the district lately identify prices as the main concern. I remain optimistic that interes ...

we just got the third rate cut of 2025, bringing the target range to its lowest level in nearly three yearsthe FED also announced a major new liquidity injection — roughly $40 billion per month in Treasury bill purchasesand this is happening right after BTC bounced from a 35% correction, its most significant pullback so far this cycleat the same time, ultra-conservative, deca-trillion-dollar asset managers like Vanguard and Charles Schwab are pushing crypto products to their tens of millions of users for th ...

US stock futures traded mixed on Friday, with the Nasdaq sliding but the Dow poised to bid for another record after a rotation from tech to value names propelled the index to a new all-time high. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) fell roughly 0.6%, continuing a tech slump. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) edged up roughly 0.2%, coming off an almost 650-point gain for the blue-chip gauge. S&P 500 futures (ES=F) dropped 0.2% after ending above 6,900 for the first time on Thursday. I ...

US stocks traded mixed on Friday, with the Nasdaq sliding but the Dow poised to bid for another record after a rotation from tech to value names propelled the index to a new all-time high. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell 0.3%, continuing a tech slump. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) edged up over 0.2%, coming off an almost 650-point gain for the blue-chip gauge. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped roughly 0.1% after ending above 6,900 for the first time on Thursday. Investors are switching ...

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com][Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]Moving the marketThe market was split today: the Dow pushed to fresh highs, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped early on as renewed worries about pricey tech and AI plays took some air out of yesterday’s Fed-fueled optimism.The rate cut glow from the prior session was still there, but Oracle’s numbers reminded traders that not every big AI story is translating cleanly into earnings just yet.Oracle sank about 13% after missing on revenue ...

Joining us right now is Kelsey Barrow. She is JP Morgan asset management fixed income portfolio manager. And Kelsey, I don't know my take on the commentary afterwards.Was Yeah, this is it's it's a hawkish statement, but not as hawkish as I had even expected, which I is that why the market was up or do you see some other reason. >> Yeah. So, it's interesting.You know, we hear what the what Chair Powell said, but then we watch the market reaction. And the market reaction is a function of not just what he says ...