Market Overview - Futures are trading mixed as the week concludes, with the Federal Reserve cutting rates again and signaling another potential cut in 2026 [2] - The Dow Jones Industrials reached an all-time high, closing up 1.34% at 48,704, while the S&P 500 ended at 6,901, up 0.12%. The Nasdaq was the only major index to decline, closing at 23,593, down 0.26% [2] Treasury Bonds - Yields were mainly lower across the yield curve, influenced by the prospect of another rate cut in 2026 and a less hawkish tone from Chairman Powell [3] - The Fed resumed buying short-term Treasury securities to manage market liquidity, with the 30-year long bond finishing at 4.8% and the benchmark 10-year note at 4.16% [3] Oil and Gas - Oil prices declined across the energy complex due to oversupply, with Brent Crude closing at $61.54, down 1.08%, and West Texas Intermediate at $57.88, down 1% [4] - Natural gas prices fell nearly 8% to $4.23, influenced by forecasts of mild weather and weaker demand, despite a supportive inventory report [4] Stock Market Outlook - The S&P 500 is on track for a potential third consecutive year of double-digit gains, with all major indices, including the Russell 2000, at or near all-time highs [5] - A "Santa Claus rally" is expected as portfolio managers may engage in "window dressing" by adding top stocks to their holdings [5]

All right. I think all day long we're going to talk about whether this was a hawkish cut. Was it a neutral cut. Was it a dovish cut.What was your take. I I felt like Jac Powell's comments about the the path forward not really being clear. That was a bit hawkish, but at the same time, the bond buying on the short end that seems a bit doubbish.Seems like it has almost the same effect as a rate cut. How did you view it. >> Well, our economists think that it was of course uh less less hawkish than the market ha ...

Market Overview - Asian markets experienced weak sentiment as they reacted to the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cut and forward guidance for 2026, with limited losses due to less hawkish guidance than expected [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 27 points or 0.70 percent, closing at 3,873.32, with a trading range between 3,862.82 and 3,904.96 [2] - The Japanese Nikkei 225 index decreased by 464 points or 0.92 percent, finishing at 50,139.00, with a trading range of 49,932.5 to 50,864 [2] - The Korean Kospi Index dropped by 24 points or 0.59 percent, closing at 4,110.62, with a trading range of 4,103.20 to 4,170.77 [4] - The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong edged down by 10 points or 0.04 percent, closing at 25,530.51, with a trading range of 25,471.50 to 25,801.34 [4] Company Performance - Mitsui saw a significant increase of 4.85 percent, while Panasonic Corp and Advantest Corp both gained over 4.4 percent [3] - Toppan Printing rose by 3.2 percent, and Chugai Pharmaceutical increased by 2.8 percent [3] - SoftBank Group Corp led the losses with a decline of 7.7 percent, followed by Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma at 6.2 percent [3] - Catalyst Metals experienced the largest loss, declining by 8.9 percent, while Aerospace DroneShield fell by 6.6 percent [6] - James Hardie Industries topped gains in Australia with a surge of 7.1 percent, followed by Ramelius Resources at 6.7 percent [5] - The NZX 50 in New Zealand added 25 points or 0.19 percent, closing at 13,395.87, with a trading range of 13,355.70 to 13,433.41 [6]

分组1 - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the range to 3.50–3.75%, which was anticipated and already priced in by the markets [1] - This decision aligns with the expectations of market participants and reflects ongoing macroeconomic conditions [1] 分组2 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding macroeconomic trends, earnings, and policy shifts in identifying investment opportunities [1] - It highlights the role of real-time positioning and data analysis in making informed investment decisions [1]

Is there any point in which those descents become counterproductive either to, you know, the Fed's communication and the messaging around the policy path forward. >> I wouldn't I don't feel that we're at that point at all. I don't I I would say again, these are these are good, thoughtful, respectful discussions and you hear people say, and you'll hear you hear many many outside analysts say the same thing.I could make a case for either for either side. I mean, I I could make that case. It's it's a close cal ...

Job Market Analysis - The unemployment rate has edged up through September but remains low compared to historical standards, indicating a slight weakening in the job market [2][3] - The labor market's normalization appears to be focused on younger individuals, suggesting that the overall deterioration may not be as severe as feared [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Inflation has been above target for 55 months, leading to speculation about potential rate cuts, with the Fed's forecast indicating a more dovish stance [5][11] - The Fed has raised the bar for the next rate cut, indicating a cautious approach while still being prepared to support growth if the labor market worsens [12][14] - There is an expectation of increased liquidity in the market, which may help maintain bullish sentiment despite the higher hurdle for rate cuts [14] Market Reactions - The tech ETF is experiencing a significant winning streak, potentially reaching its longest in eight years, reflecting positive market sentiment [9] - Precious metals like silver and gold are also on the rise, indicating a broader positive trend in the market [10]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a third quarter point cut in the last Federal Reserve meeting of the year, with odds at 91%, but there is a belief that this easing is a mistake due to inflation remaining above target [1]. Group 1: Inflation and Fiscal Policy - Inflation was largely driven by fiscal policies in 2021 and 2022, and it continues to be influenced by ongoing large budget deficits [3][7]. - The budget deficit is expected to increase over the next year, necessitating the Fed to counteract expansionary demand policies more aggressively than it did in 2021 [4]. - The current inflation rate is a percentage point above the target, while the unemployment rate is only slightly above its target, indicating a need for the Fed to maintain focus on inflation [7][8]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Economic Conditions - There is a call for higher long-term interest rates to counteract inflation and the AI bubble, which would require a shift in market expectations regarding short-term rate cuts [4][5]. - The government must reduce its budget deficit to facilitate lower interest rates for consumers and small businesses [6]. - Expansionary fiscal policy combined with rising asset prices creates a demand-heavy environment, complicating the inflation situation [7]. Group 3: Consumer Sentiment and Government Actions - Despite lower gas prices, consumer sentiment remains poor, highlighting a disconnect between economic indicators and public perception [9]. - The President has made claims about combating inflation and improving affordability, but there are suggestions that reducing tariffs could be a more effective tool for making goods more affordable [10][11]. - The current trade attitude is viewed as detrimental, with calls for the government to reverse tariffs that contribute to rising goods prices [12].

Markets are widely expecting a third quarter point cut in the last Fed meeting of the year. The definitive odds are at 91% today, but our next guest says the market has it wrong and easing is a mistake because inflation is well above target. Joining us now is Jason Ferman, former chair of the Council of Economic Adviserss under President Obama, now with Harvard's Kennedy School.Jason, it's great to have you here. I did ask our previous more dovish guest, I don't know if you caught that, um why he thinks tha ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's upcoming FOMC meeting is highly contentious, with potential market implications depending on the outcome and tone of the meeting [1] Market Expectations - A month ago, futures indicated a 50% chance of a rate cut, leading to significant market volatility, with indexes falling about 6% from their highs, while speculative areas faced more severe declines [2] - Currently, the probability of a rate cut is approximately 90%, but markets anticipate this to be the last cut until at least June of the following year, raising concerns about potential market reactions [3] Federal Reserve Communication - Chair Jerome Powell has maintained a conservative communication style, which may continue as he emphasizes that policy rates are near appropriate levels and that the committee will remain data-dependent [4] - If Powell adopts a hawkish tone, it could lead to a bearish market response, indicating less liquidity and potentially cooling the recent stock market enthusiasm [5] Sector Performance - Excluding technology, healthcare (XLV) and energy (XLE) sector ETFs have been the strongest performers over the past three months, suggesting a positive momentum signal [8] - Momentum strategies have historically generated excess returns, and sector rotation is seen as a reliable method to capture this edge, making healthcare and energy favorable sectors at this stage [9] Defensive Positioning - If the Fed delivers a rate cut but pairs it with a restrictive message, the market may need time to adjust, leading to a potential consolidation phase where investors may seek sectors with steadier earnings and lower volatility [10] - Healthcare and energy sectors are positioned well to absorb market rotation, as they have begun to outperform and remain underowned after periods of neglect [11] Future Market Dynamics - The initial market reaction post-FOMC meeting may be sharp, but the emerging leadership in sectors like healthcare and energy could indicate a shift away from the tech-driven rally that characterized much of the year [12]

Welcome back to Trading 360. I'm Marley Kaden. It's time for the big three.We've got three stocks, three charts, and three trades. Rick Dat will take us through the charts. And here to take us through the trades is Don Kaufman from Theo Trade.Great to have you both with us as always. Don, you know the drill. Big picture thought.It's Fed Day. We are seeing a bit of a mixed picture right now as I take a look at the big board ahead of the decision at 2 PM Eastern. You know, what are your thoughts on the action ...