Fed Policy & Market Impact - The Fed's 25 basis point rate cut was largely expected, but the dovish messaging, highlighting concerns about labor market weakness and potential overstatement of non-farm payroll numbers by approximately 60,000 jobs, surprised the market [1] - The Fed acknowledged the need to start treasury bill purchases at $40 billion per month, signaling continued liquidity support, which is seen as positive for assets like gold and Bitcoin [1] - Equities reacted positively, with small caps and transports rising, indicating a shift towards cyclical, pro-inflation trades, while growth stocks underperformed value stocks [2] Bitcoin & Crypto - Bitcoin's chart looks weak, but there are buy signals, with expectations of a surge back to $100,000 if it can get above $93,000, and Ethereum is outperforming Bitcoin [2] - The long-term view is that Bitcoin will benefit from the AI-driven hyper-productivity growth, as AI models compete with each other, diminishing moats and emphasizing adaptability, making Bitcoin a compelling large-cap growth investment [6][26] AI & Technology - The progress in AI models, particularly from GPT-4 to GPT-5, is based on advancements in reasoning and reinforcement learning, rather than solely on hardware, but the Blackwell deployment is crucial for visual language models and physical world applications like robotics and robo-taxis [3] - The consensus in San Francisco is that recursive self-improvement in AI will be reached in the next 2-4 years, leading to hyper-productivity and computers solving problems in energy and biology [5] - Open-source AI models are gaining traction, offering faster and cheaper solutions, but Blackwell chips provide a significant performance jump, potentially favoring closed-source models in the long run [5][6] Economic Transition & Investment Strategies - The US economy is transitioning from analog/electronic to digital, causing disruption and "shedding skin," with small business bankruptcies at a record high, but also creating opportunities for individuals to create income streams online [8] - The focus is shifting from software to hardware, with opportunities in energy, transportation, and small-cap companies making LiDAR and sensors, as the physical world is still essential to fuel technology [9] - The IPO market is expected to be historically active in the next 12-18 months, with companies like Anthropic, XAI, OpenAI, and SpaceX going public, requiring capital to build out physical infrastructure [8] Risks & Opportunities in 2026 - While a major recession is considered low probability, 20-30% market corrections are expected in the next 5 years due to events impacting profit margins and productivity [9] - A potential risk is the capex hole, where hyperscalers are spending heavily on infrastructure but not yet seeing corresponding revenue increases, potentially impacting valuations [9] - Embodied AI, starting with robo-taxis, is a major theme for the coming year, creating opportunities in hardware, batteries, and commodities like copper [10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17]

Market Rotation & Investment Strategy - The market is experiencing a rotational bull market, with profit-taking expected in stocks like Oracle, Nvidia, and Broadcom [2] - Piper Sandler suggests leaning into the rotation towards financials and industrials [1] - Raymond James emphasizes the importance of balance, advising to continue investing in the AI trade while exploring opportunities in healthcare, energy, and financials [8] Sector Analysis & Opportunities - Energy sector has been upgraded, and healthcare is showing signs of strength [3] - Regional banks are considered a key overweight for the coming year due to improving net interest margins with lower rates [8][12][13] - Medical devices are attractive due to the aging population and increasing chronic diseases [14] - Biotechnology is also promising due to increased M&A activity driven by big pharmaceutical companies needing to replenish their drug pipelines facing patent cliffs in the next 3 to 5 years [14][15] Economic Fundamentals & Sustainability - The sustainability of the rotation into small caps and energy is linked to resilient economic fundamentals [6] - The Federal Reserve's optimistic economic outlook supports the outlook for small-cap companies, benefiting from lower rates [7]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the "Magnificent 7" tech stocks is declining, leading to a market rotation towards small and micro-cap stocks, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment and risk appetite [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - The "Magnificent 7" stocks have struggled recently, with some like Nvidia facing challenges, while others like Apple reach all-time highs [2][3]. - There is a noticeable rotation of investment from large-cap tech stocks to small-cap and micro-cap stocks, such as those in the Russell 2000, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [3][4]. - The current market sentiment appears to be bullish as investors are moving into riskier assets, including precious metals, as part of a seasonal trend [4][5][6]. Group 2: Precious Metals Outlook - Gold has reached a 7-week high, and silver is hitting record highs, indicating strong performance in the precious metals market [7]. - A significant warning sign is noted when precious metals outperform the stock market for an extended period, reminiscent of conditions before past financial crises [9][10]. - Predictions suggest a potential 15% increase in gold prices, targeting around $5,175, and silver could rise to between $68 and $82 [10][11]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The current environment is seen as a favorable trading opportunity for precious metals, with expectations of explosive price movements in the near term [12][14]. - Homebuilders are also expected to see a modest rally of about 6% as investors seek familiar sectors during uncertain times [17][18]. - The strategy involves identifying trends and managing positions based on market movements rather than attempting to predict market tops or bottoms [20][21]. Group 4: Long-term Economic Outlook - A severe market correction is anticipated in 2026, with predictions of a significant downturn in equities exceeding 20%, while precious metals are expected to benefit from this shift as capital flows out of stocks [24][26][27].

Core Viewpoint - The Russell 2000 index is positioned to potentially be the second-best-performing index in the U.S. stock exchanges as 2025 approaches, driven by a significant shift towards small-cap stocks due to the Federal Reserve's easing cycle [1]. Interest Rate Impact - The Federal Reserve has reduced the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to a range of 3.5-3.75%, down from a high of 5.25-5.5% in 2023 during a tightening cycle aimed at controlling post-pandemic inflation [2]. Small Business Financing - Lower interest rates are favorable for small businesses, particularly as the period from mid-December to early March is historically strong for the Russell 2000 due to tax-loss harvesting and increased investor risk appetite at the start of the new year [3]. Top Performers in Russell 2000 - **Celcuity (CELC)**: - Stock Price: $100 - YTD Return: +695% - Market Cap: $4.71 billion - The company focuses on cellular analysis and precision oncology, experiencing significant stock price increases due to breakthrough clinical trials [5][6]. - **Better Home & Finance (BETR)**: - Stock Price: $48 - YTD Return: +442% - Market Cap: $794.72 million - Operates as an AI-powered mortgage lender and fintech company, with projected annual sales growth of over 50% this year and 67% next year [9][12]. - **Cogent Biosciences (COGT)**: - Stock Price: $40 - YTD Return: +413% - Market Cap: $5.58 billion - Focused on precision therapies for genetically defined diseases, with strong clinical progress on its lead drug, bezuclastinib [13][14]. Earnings Projections - Celcuity is expected to report a loss of -$3.86 per share in FY25 and -$4.05 in FY26, despite positive EPS revisions [8]. - Better Home's EPS revisions for FY25 and FY26 have slightly decreased, indicating potential short-term momentum loss [12]. - Cogent is projected to have a narrower adjusted loss of -$1.77 per share in FY26, with modestly higher EPS revisions in the last 60 days [14]. Investment Considerations - The strong performance of the Russell 2000 suggests that these top-performing stocks may be worth monitoring, although better buying opportunities may arise in the future [16].

My next guest isn't worried. He does say 2026 will be the year of a proud bowl, not a stampeding one. Joining us now is Chris Heisy, the chief investment officer for Mel and Bank of America private bank. Chris, I'm not that up on my western metaphors. So, please uh explain what you see happening here. >> Yeah, it's great to be with you, Kelly. I I would say this. A proud bull is one that looks back and says, "Look at all the hard work we did not just in the last 12 months, but really almost the last 36 mont ...

Gains in Chinese small caps have spurred global investors to seek shares not available via a Hong Kong transaction channel, according to UBS https://t.co/vNOqivOwC3 ...

Market Trends & Analysis - Small caps have outperformed large caps (S&P 500 and Russell 1000) over the last seven trading days [1] - Small caps historically perform best relative to large caps from mid-December through early March [4] - The Russell 2000 (small caps) contains approximately 2,000 stocks with a market capitalization under $45 billion [2] - The Russell 1000 includes large and mega-cap stocks with a market capitalization over $10 billion [3] Investment Opportunities & Risks - Small caps are more tied to the US economy and sensitive to interest rates and credit conditions, leading to potentially larger swings [7] - Large caps tend to have global revenue streams and stronger balance sheets, offering more resilience during downturns [8] - Small caps have less concentration risk compared to the S&P 500 or Russell 1000 [8] - Analyst coverage for small-cap stocks is generally lower, requiring more thorough individual research [8] Technical Analysis & Key Levels - The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) faces a key resistance level at $240, corresponding to the 2400 level on the Russell 2000 index [9] - Holding above the 2400 level for the Russell 2000 is a critical test for a sustained rally [10] - Investors should monitor whether small caps continue to outperform even with typical market pullbacks [10][11]

Hello and welcome to market domination over time. There are quite a few big bullish bets on markets for 2026 on Wall Street. And our next guest says economic tailwinds should support that market sentiment. Here with me at the desk got Bryant Vancronite, Allspring Global Investments senior portfolio manager. Bryant, always good to see you. Let's start here. Brian, you say the US economy should be good enough for stocks in early 26. Maybe start there. Why, Brian? Like what are the drivers? Is it monetary stim ...

Week in AI: Small Caps Rip as TAO Halving NearsBTC back above $90k! AI sector adds $870M! TAO & NEAR lead the bounce! Small caps fly as traders rotate back into AI risk!Let’s unpack this week’s AI rebound. 🧵1/7 https://t.co/rFGBVGPpPX ...

Group 1 - The article does not provide any specific content related to a company or industry [1]