Shares in home furnishing retailers jumped Friday after President Trump announced a one-year pause on higher tariffs on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets and vanities. Luxury furniture retailer RH rose 9.5% and online retailer Wayfair jumped 6.3%. Stock for Williams-Sonoma, which sells kitchenware and home decor, increased 5.3%. 3 President Trump unveiling his tariffs based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act during a press conference in April. The Washington Post via Getty ImagesOthe ...

Morningstar; David A. Grogan/CNBC/NBCU Photo Bank/NBCUniversal via Getty Images; Societe Generale; BI Tariffs, delayed rate cuts, a shaky job market, more tariffs, new AI chatbots, debates over GPU depreciation timelines, dollar debasement, and even more tariffs. It was yet another blockbuster year in markets. Who saw things most lucidly amid all the chaos and posturing? Behold, our 2025 Oracles of Wall Street list. In this year's edition, we highlight three main market trends for which we could find fo ...

Group 1: Tariffs and Market Reactions - Trump's announcement of sweeping tariffs in April led to a significant market downturn, with the S&P 500 dropping nearly 5% on April 3 and an additional 6% the following day due to fears of a trade war with China [1][2] - The tariffs caused a decline in the value of the U.S. dollar and affected the U.S. Treasury market, prompting Trump to pause the tariffs on April 9 after observing market reactions [2] - Despite initial turmoil, Wall Street experienced a strong summer driven by enthusiasm for artificial intelligence technology and positive corporate earnings, alongside three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Trump actively lobbied the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, challenging the traditional independence of the Fed in making monetary policy decisions [4] - The Fed maintained steady interest rates through August as inflation remained above the 2% target, which frustrated Trump despite his own trade policies contributing to inflation concerns [5] - Tensions between Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell escalated, with Trump publicly criticizing Powell's management, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [6][7] Group 3: Global Market Performance - U.S. stocks achieved double-digit gains, but many foreign markets outperformed, with South Korea's KOSPI experiencing its largest gain in over two decades due to technology investments [8] - Japan's Nikkei 225 also saw significant gains, supported by a focus on AI and a $135 billion stimulus package following national elections [9] - European markets performed well, with Germany's DAX benefiting from increased government spending on infrastructure and defense, while the European Central Bank's interest rate cuts provided additional support [9][10]

Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to experience solid growth in 2026, with lower unemployment and slightly reduced inflation compared to 2025 [2][9] - Vanguard's forecast for 2026 includes a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.2% from 4.6% in November 2025, driven by increased investments in AI and other projects [7] Employment and Job Market - The job market is anticipated to rebound in 2026 after a sluggish performance in 2025, as businesses increase investments and economic growth drives demand for workers [7][9] Economic Growth - GDP growth is projected at 2.25% for 2026, supported by strong investment numbers and fiscal policy changes, particularly tax cuts from the "One Big, Beautiful Bill" [7][10] Inflation Trends - Inflation is expected to remain elevated due to the continued impact of tariffs, with consumer prices rising by 2.6% in 2026, slightly down from 2.8% in September 2025 [10][11]

Key Takeaways Pre-market Futures Start 2026 Nicely in the GreenIs This the Start of the "January Effect"?Next Week Begins "Jobs Week;" Today Beings Us Manufacturing DataFriday, January 2nd, 2026We start the first trading day of the new year — Happy New Year, everybody! — in optimistic territory, following a modest December overall, which saw the Santa Claus Rally peter out and the tech-heavy Nasdaq close in the red for the month. Currently, we’re +139 points of the Dow (+0.29%), +35 on the S&P 500 (+0.51%), ...

Importantly, U.S. GDP increased an annual 4.3% during the third quarter, the most robust growth in two years. President Trump credited tariffs for the booming economy. However, GDP growth was artificially high because imports (which are subtracted from GDP) were artificially low. Why were imports low? Companies stockpiled inventory ahead of tariffs earlier this year.Trump said tariffs would make America wealthy again and people would be "very happy" with the result. However, consumer sentiment in 2025 recor ...

BERLIN, Jan 2 (Reuters) - German exporters should prepare for continued weakness in 2026 in their two ​largest markets, the United States and China, with ‌little prospect of recovery, the BGA trade association said on Friday. "We ‌do not see a turnaround, but at best a brief respite," said BGA president Dirk Jandura. Exports to the U.S. are projected to have fallen more than 7% to ⁠just under 150 ‌billion euros ($156 billion) in 2025, while exports to China have contracted even more sharply, ‍dropping 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has decided to reduce proposed tariffs on Italian pasta producers after an investigation found that many concerns regarding unfair pricing had been addressed by exporters [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Adjustments - Proposed tariffs on 13 Italian pasta companies have been rolled back, with specific reductions noted for La Molisana to 2.26% and Garofalo to 13.98% [4]. - The remaining 11 pasta makers, including Barilla and Rummo, will now face a tariff of 9.09% [4]. Group 2: Market Impact - Previously proposed duties could have reached up to 92%, in addition to a 15% tariff on most EU imports, which posed a significant threat to the U.S. market valued at nearly $800 million for Italian pasta exporters [7]. - Companies had warned that such high tariffs could effectively exclude them from the U.S. market [7]. Group 3: Future Developments - The final tariff rates are expected to be announced on March 12, with a possibility of extension by up to 60 days [10].

Economic Growth and Inflation - The U.S. economy grew faster than expected in late 2025, with overall output rising at an annual pace of about 4% to 4.5% in the third quarter, driven by increased consumer spending and business investment [4] - Inflation has cooled, with prices rising 2.7% in November compared to the previous year, which is lower than the 3.1% economists had estimated [5] Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 ended 2025 with a gain of 17%, indicating a strong year for U.S. stocks [2] Legislative Developments - Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), signed into law on July 4, extends expiring tax cuts from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and introduces new federal initiatives [9][10] - The OBBBA is expected to result in significant tax refunds for working Americans, with predictions of refunds ranging from $1,000 to $2,000 due to changes in tax withholding [13] Tariff Policies - In April, Trump announced "Liberation Day" tariffs aimed at reducing trade imbalances and reviving U.S. manufacturing, although critics warn of potential consumer price increases [20] - Total duty revenue reached $215.2 billion in fiscal year 2025, with $96.5 billion collected since the start of the new fiscal year [21] - Trump claims that tariff revenue could fund a $2,000 dividend for low- and middle-income Americans [23]

Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing inflation trends and forecasts, indicating that consumer price increases are expected to remain above pre-pandemic levels until at least 2026 [2][3][6] - Economists predict that core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation will stabilize but not return to the Federal Reserve's target of 2% for some time [5][6][11] Inflation Trends - Prior to 2021, core PCE inflation typically rose less than 2% annually, but surged to 5.6% in 2022, the highest in nearly four decades [3] - As of September, core PCE inflation was reported at 2.8%, indicating a slight increase over the year [5][11] Economic Predictions - The median forecast from economists suggests core PCE inflation will be 2.4% by the end of 2026, reflecting a cooling trend but still above pre-pandemic levels [6] - Deutsche Bank economists predict inflation will remain at 2.25% or more through at least 2028, despite lower tariff rates and a slowdown in housing costs [7] Varied Forecasts - Oxford Economics forecasts a more optimistic scenario, expecting core PCE inflation to cool to 2.2% by the end of 2026, driven by decelerating housing costs [8][9] - Conversely, Bank of America predicts core PCE inflation will remain at 2.8% through 2026, attributing this to ongoing tariff impacts [12]