BREAKING:🇺🇸 POWELL SAID THAT SITUATION SUGGESTS DOWNSIDE RISKS TO EMPLOYMENT IS RISING.HE'S SPEAKING DOVISH LANGUAGE.THIS IS BULLISH FOR MARKETS. ...

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has reported big increases since December in American-born population and employment. That’s not possible, @foxjust says (via @opinion) https://t.co/nYR6vHAsuq ...

Monetary Policy & Interest Rates - The market's pricing in an 80-90% chance of rate cuts in September is considered unlikely due to upcoming data releases [5] - The Fed's decision-making remains data-dependent, with upcoming inflation and employment reports being crucial [3][6] - There's a possibility of rate cuts later in the year, but the timing and magnitude are uncertain [4] - The Fed should be cautious about adopting a dovish tone, as it could lead to a resurgence of inflation [8] Inflation Outlook - Inflation pressures persist, particularly in sticky areas like services and housing [4][11] - The impact of tariffs implemented in August on inflation is yet to be fully realized [7][14] - The fourth quarter is expected to be a volatile period for inflation due to the delayed effects of tariffs [15] - Inflation is not considered a long-term issue, but volatility is expected over the next 6-9 months [13] Employment & Economic Concerns - The labor market is showing signs of weakening, which the Fed will need to consider [4][10] - The Fed needs to balance concerns about inflation with the employment picture [9][10]

Federal Reserve Policy - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve (Fed) to potentially cut rates, influenced by conflicting signals from inflation and employment data [2][3] - There is internal debate within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regarding whether to prioritize inflation or growth concerns [3][4] - The market is closely watching for guidance from the Fed chair, as his stance will be critical in shaping committee consensus [9][10][11] - Dissent within the FOMC is growing, potentially leading to a divided committee and a challenging press conference for the chair [11][12][13][14][15] Inflation and Market Expectations - The market is pricing in inflation above the Fed's 2% target in one year's time, as indicated by one-year ahead inflation swaps trading at 33% [11] - The market has adjusted its expectations regarding the number of rate cuts, initially anticipating three cuts but now expecting closer to two [18] Economic Outlook and Trade - Concerns exist about a potential trade-related slowdown, particularly in the context of ongoing trade wars [20] - Simulations suggest that raising the effective tariff rate from 3% to 18% could decrease GDP by 07%, but not necessarily lead to a recession [21][22]

Employment Trends - Downward payroll revisions indicate a weakening job market [1] - Weaker confidence in job availability suggests growing employment concerns [1] - Large-scale government layoffs contribute to a negative employment picture [1] Monetary Policy Implications - These employment trends may prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates [1] ARK Invest's Perspective - Cathie Wood shares her insights on the implications of these trends in "In The Know" [1]

Tom Barkin is looking for clarity about inflation, tariffs and employment the old-fashioned way: He’s talking to people https://t.co/WLGf7jBgHe ...