Fed Policy & Market Expectations - Market anticipates a Fed rate cut next week, followed by two more cuts by year-end [2] - Next week's rate cut is highly likely, but further cuts depend on inflation outlook and economic strength [3] - Uncertainty exists regarding the pass-through of tariff costs into inflation [4] - Concerns exist about slowing disposable income growth potentially moderating consumption growth [6][10] - The Fed's commitment to a 2% inflation target could be questioned if inflation rises [12] Employment & Economic Indicators - Job growth has moderated, but it may reflect labor supply weakness due to limited immigration and deportations [9] - No signs of an imminent recession involving rapid job losses are apparent [7] - Downward revision of job growth by over 900,000 jobs in the past year raises concerns about maximum employment [8] - Consumer concerns about inflation-adjusted income not keeping pace with prices could impact consumption [10] Personnel - The Senate may confirm Steven Myin as Fed Governor, replacing Adriana Cougler [1]

On Wall Street, we've all been conditioned to believe that good news is bad news and vice versa. Maybe if the econom is too strong, we can expect the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, bad for growth. And if the economy is weak enough, the Fed will cut rates, good for growth, and the stock market.But sometimes bad news really is bad news, like the very weak employment numbers we saw this very morning. Something that shows the economy is producing far fewer jobs than expected. Like many others, I was ...

Monetary Policy & Inflation - The former Kansas City Fed President suggests the court should sort out the authority of the president to fire someone, emphasizing the need for due process [2] - The analyst observes that inflation is at 3%, one percentage point above the target, while the Fed is considering cutting rates [7] - The PCA inflation has tipped up slightly, and unemployment remains at 42% [9] - With inflation at 3%, real interest rates are approximately 15%, which is close to neutral [10] - There is no case for cutting rates in a rising inflation environment [11] - The recent budget reconciliation bill is expansionary, adding another $2 trillion of debt [12] - Cutting rates in an environment of rising inflation and low unemployment poses a risk to the Fed's appearance [14] Labor Market - A Fed governor suggests the labor market is weak and about to turn negative based on extrapolations of revisions [8] - Initial claims were down, indicating a relatively stable labor market [10] Fed Actions & Considerations - The Fed may be facing pressure from elsewhere on the FOMC to cut rates [13] - It may be time for the Fed to wait and see rather than signaling rate cuts [11]

Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - The industry remains agnostic on the relative likelihood and danger of inflation and unemployment [1] - The industry observes more pressure on politicization of the Fed than any time in generations [1] - The industry suggests tilting towards concern about maintaining confidence in the long-term commitment to price stability [1] - The industry hopes the Fed will continue to be very much data dependent [2] - The industry is watching carefully what happens both on the inflation statistics and on the unemployment statistics [2] - The industry recognizes some stagflationary impulses working through [2]

Inflation Concerns - Inflation is too high and has been trending higher [2][3] - The current inflation rate puts a real pinch on lower income households [4] - Inflation has been above the target for four years, requiring control [4] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve chair is open-minded about the right policy stance for September [2] - The current economic situation presents a challenging time for monetary policy [3] - Expectation is that inflation may continue to rise, and unemployment may also rise [3] Employment Situation - The employment side is reasonably close to full employment [2] - Employment has been balanced and healthy for the better part of a year [2] - Unemployment has been pretty consistent in the 4% to 43% range [3]

Diane, h how much does this change the picture? Uh especially these revisions as Bostik was mentioning there. Um you think the Fed would have made a different decision if if these numbers had been out days ago. >> I'm not sure they would have made a different decision on the month of July, but I think this does nudge them obviously closer to September. It's still not a slam dunk. This is the hard part for the Fed. The important part for Bostic is he didn't say, "Hey, this is it. we're gonna cut now because ...

Although interest rates and unemployment have an indirectly inverse relationship, that relationship can be clouded by broader factors in the labor market. https://t.co/8VWJE1g9f5 ...

Economic Outlook - BOE rate-setter Catherine Mann warned of unemployment fears and rising bills in the UK [1] - UK households are building a "rainy day fund" due to economic concerns [1]

Economic Indicators - Argentina's job market is a growing concern due to rising unemployment [1] Political Landscape - Javier Milei's approval rating remains stable despite economic anxieties [1]

Inflation & Unemployment - ECB Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf indicates that inflation expectations in the euro area helped the region avoid large increases in unemployment during a period of strong consumer-price growth [1]