Company Insights - Tesla's stock (TSLA) has shown a decline following its earnings report, indicating a shift in investor sentiment as the momentum crowd moves away from TSLA towards more speculative stocks [12] - CEO Elon Musk expressed ambitions for Tesla to produce 100,000 humanoid robots per month within five years, alongside positive remarks about Tesla's energy sector, which typically generates excitement in the market [12] - Despite Musk's optimistic outlook, the current performance of Tesla's electric vehicle (EV) segment is deteriorating, which has not been overlooked by investors this time [12] Market Trends - Money flows in early trading show a negative trend for TSLA, while other tech giants like NVIDIA, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet are experiencing positive flows [8] - The overall market is influenced by various crosscurrents, including speculation about interest rate cuts and potential trade deals between the U.S. and other countries [12][5] Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims came in at 217,000, which is lower than the consensus estimate of 225,000, indicating strong labor market data that does not support a rate cut [12] - The Treasury auction results showed a high yield of 4.935% for a $13 billion 20-year Treasury bond reopening, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.79, reflecting investor interest [12]

Yes, Carl. These are June new home sales. Expecting a nice round number around 650,000 seasonally adjusted annualized units.Comes in on the light side, no surprise, 627,000. Uh but it is from a 623,000. So it is up just a smidge somewhere around a half a percent.But here's the deal. Last month 623,000 was the lowest in seven months going to October of last year. This is barely above that.It still comps to that. The previous month was a much more robust 722,000. So, we have back-to-back weak months.And we kn ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported second quarter net income of $242 million or $2.67 per share, an increase from $199 million or $2.20 per share in 2024 [4] - Excluding special items, net income was $224 million or $2.48 per share compared to $199 million or $2.20 per share in 2024, reflecting a $0.28 per share increase driven by higher prices and lower fiber costs [4][5] - Second quarter net sales were $2.2 billion in 2025, up from $2.1 billion in 2024 [4] - Total company EBITDA for the second quarter, excluding special items, was $451 million in 2025 compared to $400 million in 2024 [4] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Packaging segment, EBITDA excluding special items was $453 million with sales of $2 billion, resulting in a margin of 22.6%, compared to last year's EBITDA of $400 million and sales of $1.9 billion with a margin of 21% [5][6] - The Paper segment reported EBITDA excluding special items of $30 million with sales of $146 million, yielding a margin of 20.8%, compared to $31 million and $150 million in sales in 2024 [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Domestic containerboard and corrugated products prices and mix were $0.95 per share above 2024, with export containerboard prices up $0.03 per share versus last year's second quarter [8] - Export containerboard sales were lower, with a production of 85,000 fewer tons than in 2024 [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company announced an agreement to acquire the Greif containerboard business, which is expected to provide a strong growth platform for both containerboard and corrugated products [7][10] - The acquisition is anticipated to be completed by the end of the third quarter, subject to regulatory approval [7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while corrugated customers remained cautious, there was steady improvement in bookings and shipments as July progressed [15] - The company expects higher corrugated shipments and containerboard production in the third quarter, despite lower export containerboard sales due to the global trade environment [15][16] - Management expressed optimism about potential upside if global trade issues and tariffs are resolved [70] Other Important Information - Cash provided by operations was $300 million in the quarter, with free cash flow of $130 million [13] - The company has a quarter-end cash balance, including marketable securities, of $956 million, with liquidity of approximately $1.3 billion [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about bookings and billings to start the new quarter? - Bookings are trending at 2% over Q2 2024, with a good start compared to last year's strong performance [23] Question: What was behind the better performance in operations? - The company operated at approximately 99% uptime performance, executing efficiently despite some downtime due to demand [25] Question: Can you clarify the impact of export sales on revenue and EBITDA? - The increase in revenue and EBITDA per ton is primarily due to price increases rather than mix changes [29] Question: What is the outlook for e-commerce growth? - Customers in the e-commerce sector are still growing mid-single digits, with more growth expected in the second half of the year [79] Question: How will the Greif acquisition impact recycled mix and customer sets? - The recycled mix is expected to increase from around 20% to approximately 30% post-acquisition, providing better opportunities in the market [86] Question: What is the expected marginal cost of the new debt from the Greif acquisition? - The company is modeling about a 5.5% interest rate on the new debt, resulting in around $100 million incremental interest [100]

Global Bond Market & Treasury Yields - Global bond issuance is a key factor influencing Treasury yields [1] - The market anticipates interest rates may remain elevated for an extended period [2] - The 20-year Treasury auction showed strong performance with the lowest net yield change on the curve, although rates initially dipped before rising again [2][3] Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) - Japan's role as a significant debt issuer is crucial to monitor [4] - JGB ten-year yield is around 1.58%, considered elevated [4] - The interest rate differential between JGBs and US Treasuries is influenced by currency exchange rates [5] Dollar Index - Despite a slight increase in interest rates, the dollar index did not strengthen significantly [5] - The dollar index's 3.5-year low close on July 2nd at 96.78 is a critical level to watch, as technicians may sell if it's breached [6]

Market Resilience & Economic Outlook - The market and economy have shown resilience to higher tariff rates [1] - Strong employment continues, with inflation easing to the mid-2% range [3] - Credit markets are very strong, with significant refinancing activity at tight spreads [3] Interest Rates & Monetary Policy - There's a possibility of interest rate cuts, although some anticipate no cuts this year [2] - Markets are acting in a benign fashion [3] - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has decreased from 40% to 22% of government debt, with continued sales of $40 billion per month, potentially easing conditions at the long end [7][8] Debt Market Activity - Approximately $45 billion in deals were announced on Monday, marking the fourth largest day or week in market history [4] - Companies are repricing deals with portable provisions, indicating strong investor demand [4][5] Consumer Impact - Approximately 87% of homeowners have mortgage rates well below current levels, impacting housing [8] - Roughly two-thirds of mortgages are 200 basis points below current financing rates, creating concern for consumers [8] Business Environment - Businesses are benefiting from the current environment and performing well [5] - Earnings revisions are trending upward, and unemployment remains low, creating a favorable environment for both equity and debt markets [6]

Capex Boom & Economic Growth - Business equipment production rose 23% in Q1, and GDP accounts showed a 24% increase [4] - Q2 showed a near 11% increase, resulting in a 17% annualized gain over two quarters, the largest since 1997 (excluding the pandemic) [4][5] - The extension of tax policy incentivized companies to invest in capital [6] - Expects capex trajectory to remain strong, fostering upward pressure on wages [7] - Sees potential for a "blue wages boom" with non-supervisory production workers earning bigger paychecks [7] - The administration's outlook is based on 3% growth, considered doable due to productivity trends and labor force participation [18][20] - Expects AI boom to generate quicker payoffs from capital investment [20] - If growth reaches 3%, there could be an additional $4 trillion not counted by the CBO, potentially alleviating deficit concerns [21] Tariffs & Inflation - Tariffs have not had the expected effect on price data, with most of the tariff being absorbed in the margin [12] - The majority of the tariff has been absorbed in the margin [12] - The US could be collecting $300 billion in tariffs, but inflation data has been minimal [13] - Energy costs and capex tend to be disinflationary, offsetting potential lingering effects from tariffs [14] International Trade & Investment - Japan will commit over $500 billion (550 billion) to the US through an innovation fund [16]

Look, importantly, uh, markets rely on the independence of the Fed and the Fed's commitment to achieving its congressionally mandated goals of price stability and maximum employment in uh, assessing the soundness of the US economy and their security in terms of um, returns they can expect investing in the United States. And when a president threatens to remove a chair unless he radically lowers interest rates with the stated purpose um of helping the government finance its borrowing um not the congressional ...

Core Insights - The U.S. retail sector has shown resilience with a notable rebound in retail sales, indicating strong consumer spending despite price pressures and tariffs [1][4][6] Retail Sales Performance - Retail sales reached $720.1 billion in June, increasing by 0.6% month over month after a 0.9% decline in May, surpassing analysts' expectations of a 0.1% rise [4][9] - Year-over-year, retail sales rose by 3.9% in June, driven by increases in auto dealership sales (up 1.2%) and building material and garden equipment stores (up 0.9%) [4][6] - Online retail sales grew by 0.4%, while sales at sporting goods, hobby, and book stores increased by 0.2% [4] Economic Implications - The strong retail sales figures suggest that the economy remains robust, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts [2][6] - Tariff-driven price increases have contributed to the rise in retail sales, but market participants are optimistic about future trade deals mitigating negative impacts [7] Investment Opportunities - Five retail stocks have been identified as having growth potential due to positive earnings estimate revisions and strong Zacks Ranks: Amazon.com, Dollar Tree, Advance Auto Parts, Casey's General Stores, and Levi Strauss [2][3][9] - Amazon.com, Inc. has an expected earnings growth rate of 13.4% for the current year, with a Zacks Rank of 1 [10] - Dollar Tree, Inc. has an expected earnings growth rate of 7.8% and a Zacks Rank of 2 [12] - Advance Auto Parts, Inc. is projected to have an earnings growth rate of over 100%, also holding a Zacks Rank of 2 [14] - Casey's General Stores, Inc. has an expected earnings growth rate of 7.2% and a Zacks Rank of 2 [16] - Levi Strauss & Co. has an expected earnings growth rate of 4% and a Zacks Rank of 1 [18]

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Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - The US economy is showing signs of strength with improved sentiment and strong retail sales [1] - The Federal Reserve (Fed) is perceived to be in a comfortable position to observe economic developments before making policy changes, given the unemployment rate is near the natural rate and inflation is moderating [2] - The Fed is expected to re-engage with its recalibration campaign, potentially starting in September, to further lower rates [4] - The committee anticipates the neutral rate to be around 3%, suggesting further room for rate cuts [10] - A more realistic estimate for the neutral rate might be 325% to 350%, allowing the Fed some flexibility [11] - The Fed aims to bring inflation down to the lower end of the 2% range and ideally asymptote to 2% [11] Inflation & Fed's Response - The Fed's 2022 policy of sharply increasing the policy rate successfully reduced inflation without causing a recession [6] - The Fed's actions were followed globally, with some emerging markets even anticipating and moving ahead of the Fed [8] Fiscal Policy Impact - Some believe the Fed misplayed the 2021 episode, partly due to substantial expenditure authorized by Congress and the White House, which fueled inflation [6]