Inflation Trends & Analysis - Consumer prices rose 27% year-over-year in June, accelerating from May's pace [1] - Tariffs are beginning to impact prices of imported goods like toys, apparel, and furnishings [2] - Offsets from sectors like energy and housing could temporarily keep inflation in check [3][4] - Core inflation is settling around 3%, while headline inflation is around 25%-3% [7] - Current inflation levels are significantly higher than pre-COVID levels of 15% [8] Federal Reserve & Interest Rates - In a 3% inflation environment, the Fed is unlikely to move rates, keeping the funds rate at 4% [6] - Market may reject Fed rate cuts if they are perceived as unnecessary stimulus, potentially leading to higher rates [10] - A 300 basis point rate cut, as desired by President Trump, could inject excessive stimulus and produce inflation [11] Economic Factors - The supply chain shock that contributed to the previous 40-year high inflation has largely dissipated [7] - Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the Fed's preferred inflation measure, may show a 03%-04% rise [5]

You know, firstly, if if you look at the quarter, again, as you pointed out, it's it was a a good good quarter in the sense of showing more progress on a lot of the investments we're making. You saw revenue growth in the quarter. You saw good expense control.Uh we bought back uh you know, some stock, you know, and returned more capital to shareholders. We announced an increase of the dividend. You saw good credit performance.And so, by and large, a pretty solid sort of performance. When you look at, you kno ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported an adjusted net income of $118 million or $1.37 per share for the second quarter, compared to $120 million or $1.38 per share in the first quarter [12] - The net interest margin (NIM) expanded by six basis points, reaching 1.37% after adjusting for transaction-related expenses [5][12] - Total loans increased by $364 million or 6% annualized, driven by stronger demand and increased line utilization [5][12] - Total deposits decreased by $148 million, primarily due to a reduction in certificates of deposit (CDs) [6][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fee income grew by $4 million or 4%, with trust fees being the primary driver of this growth [12][13] - The efficiency ratio improved to 54.91% from 55.22% in the previous quarter, indicating better cost management [13] - The company added 10 net new bankers during the quarter, contributing to its organic growth strategy [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a solid allowance for credit losses at 1.45%, indicating a strong position to navigate economic challenges [10] - Criticized commercial loans decreased by 4% to $594 million, while nonaccrual loans decreased by 9% to $95 million [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains focused on organic growth, with a guidance of low single-digit loan growth for 2025, inferring mid single-digit growth for the second half of the year [6][12] - The company is optimistic about its growth prospects, particularly in the Dallas market, with plans to open five new financial centers [9] - The acquisition of Sable Trust Company is expected to enhance the company's capabilities and client base [7][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the dynamic macroeconomic environment but expressed confidence in the company's ample liquidity and strong capital ratios [10] - The management noted that clients have become less sensitive to economic headlines and are returning to making business decisions based on facts [30] - The company expects modest NIM expansion and net interest income (NII) growth of 3-4% for the year [17] Other Important Information - The company repurchased 750,000 shares of common stock during the quarter, reflecting its commitment to returning capital to shareholders [7][19] - The company anticipates two rate cuts of 25 basis points in September and December, which may impact deposit costs and NIM [17][44] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the target CET1 ratio for buybacks? - Management indicated a comfortable operating range for Tier 1 common capital between 11% and 11.5% and around 8% for TCE [23][24] Question: What is the outlook for loan growth and borrower health? - Management noted that net new loans to new clients are the primary driver for growth, with a positive outlook barring macroeconomic changes [29][30] Question: Can you provide more insight into NIM outlook? - Management expects NIM to continue expanding in the second half of the year, driven by loan growth and reduced deposit costs [41][44] Question: How much of the expense base came from the Sable acquisition? - The increase in expenses related to Sable was approximately $2.5 million for the quarter [50] Question: What is the outlook for criticized loans? - Management reported a decrease in criticized loans and expressed confidence in the portfolio's health moving forward [105][106] Question: What is the company's stance on M&A? - Management reiterated that M&A is not a current focus but remains opportunistic for the future [58][112]

Core Insights - The company reported an expansion in Net Interest Margin (NIM) by six basis points in Q2 2025, indicating improved profitability [2][15] - Adjusted Return on Assets (ROA) was 1.37% for Q2 2025, reflecting transaction expenses related to the Sable Trust acquisition [3][20] - Adjusted net income decreased slightly to $118 million, or $1.37 per share, compared to $120 million, or $1.38 per share, in the previous quarter [3][20] - Pre-Provision Net Revenue (PPNR) increased by $5 million, or 3%, reaching 1.95% of assets [3][20] - Fee income rose by $4 million, or 4%, primarily driven by trust fees from the Sable Trust acquisition [4][20] Financial Performance - Net Interest Income (NII) increased by $7 million, or 2%, quarter-over-quarter [3][20] - Expenses rose by $5 million, or 2%, after adjusting for one-time items, with $2.5 million attributed to the Sable Trust acquisition [4][20] - Efficiency Ratio improved to 54.91% from 55.22% in the previous quarter, indicating better cost management [5][21] - Loans grew by $364 million, representing 6% annualized linked-quarter growth, with guidance for low single-digit annual growth remaining unchanged [5][15] Deposits and Funding - Deposit balances decreased by $148 million, primarily due to certificate of deposit (CD) run-off and reduced public funds [5][16] - Demand Deposit Account (DDA) mix increased to 37%, with management guiding for 37%-38% by year-end 2025 [5][24] - CD maturities repriced from 3.85% to 3.59%, with an 86% renewal rate; an additional $3.6 billion is expected to mature in the second half of 2025 [6][23] Capital and Shareholder Returns - Tangible common equity (TCE) stood at 9.84% and common equity Tier 1 at 14.03% post-acquisition [7][25] - The company repurchased 750,000 shares, spending approximately $40 million, with plans to maintain this capital return pace [8][26] - Management expects a common equity Tier 1 operating level of 11%-11.5% and a TCE comfort zone near 8% [9][29] Credit Quality - Allowance for Credit Losses (ACL) was maintained at 1.45% of loans, down four basis points from the last quarter [7][25] - Net charge-offs increased to 31 basis points, with full-year 2025 guidance unchanged at 15-25 basis points [7][25] - Criticized commercial loans declined by 4% to $594 million, and nonaccrual loans fell by 9% to $95 million, indicating stable credit quality [7][25] Growth Initiatives - The company added ten new bankers and finalized five new financial center locations in the Dallas area, with three openings slated for late 2025 and the remainder in early 2026 [8][17] - Management expects continued CD repricing at lower rates, forecasting at least an 81% renewal rate in the second half of 2025 [12][24] - The organic hiring plan targets a compounded 10% increase in bankers annually, with flexibility to exceed this if high-quality talent becomes available [12][76]

但如果接下来的数据发生变化，美联储将不得不在更长时间维持利率不变。 Northlight Asset Management首席投资官Chris Zaccarelli：如果美国通胀压力确实持续可控，美联储可能 会推进降息，最早或在9月行动。 ...

Joining me now to look ahead to these reports is Alexander Yokum from CFR. Alexander, welcome. So, Wells Fargo has a lot of consumer business here.How relevant is that to the regionals, which I think of as as dealing more with small businesses. Yeah, thank you. Uh, thank you for having me on.Um, yeah, I think it is somewhat relevant. Um, I think investors were concerned with that net interest income downgrade in terms of the guidance and I think they are reading through that into the regional banks. You kno ...

Market Trends - Municipal bonds experienced a sell-off on Tuesday [1] - New inflation data led traders to reduce expectations for a September interest-rate cut [1]

>> Welcome back. Consumer prices picked up slightly in June, but largely in line with expectations. Joining me now to discuss is Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Slok.It's good to have you, Torsten. You have been one of the economists warning that tariffs are going to be inflationary. Just not seeing it yet in a.>> Big way. Hold on. This report does mark the liftoff in inflation.If you look at the subcomponents for tools, for toys, for apparel, for furniture, it's very clear that you're not ...

Core Insights - The core viewpoint from JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s FQ2 report indicates a shift in CEO Jamie Dimon's comments from concerns about economic risks to a more positive outlook on the resilience of the U.S. economy and financial landscape [1][3] Financial Performance - The company reported a year-over-year revenue contraction, but it was less than expected, with average loans increasing by 5% and deposits rising by 6% [4] - In the community banking segment, deposits contracted by only 1%, offset by a double-digit increase in invested assets [4] - Net interest income (NII) increased by 2%, although this was offset by a 20% decline in fee-based revenue [4][5] - Adjusted earnings reached $4.96, surpassing consensus estimates, which included a $0.28 tax-related benefit [5] Economic Outlook - Dimon highlighted that the U.S. economy remained resilient, with tax reform and potential deregulation positively impacting the economic outlook, despite significant risks from tariffs, trade uncertainty, and geopolitical conditions [3][6] - The favorable interest rate outlook is expected to keep NII strong through 2026, although inflation may hinder rate cuts by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [6][7] Stock Forecast and Analyst Sentiment - The 12-month stock price forecast for JPMorgan Chase & Co. is $284.42, indicating a moderate buy rating based on 22 analyst ratings [4][10] - Despite some price target reductions during Q2, upgrades and price target increases were noted, leading to a firm sentiment among analysts [10] - Institutional ownership exceeds 70%, with buying activity expected to continue into 2025 [11] Capital Management - The company has a robust balance sheet with a tier one ratio of 15%, above regulatory requirements [8] - Book value increased by 10%, and the company executed $7 billion in share repurchases, alongside a cumulative 20% increase in dividends this year [9]

WELCOME TO MEET THE PRESS NOW. I'M GABE GUTIERREZ IN WASHINGTON, AND WE BEGIN IN PENNSYLVANIA, WHERE PRESIDENT TRUMP IS SPEAKING AT A SUMMIT ON AI AND ENERGY AS HE SEEKS TO TOUT A KEY PROVISION IN THE SWEEPING LEGISLATION CONGRESSIONAL REPUBLICANS DELIVERED FOR HIM IN A STATE THAT HELPED DELIVER HIM THE WHITE HOUSE. HERE'S A LIVE LOOK AT THAT SUMMIT IN PITTSBURGH, WHERE THE PRESIDENT JUST FORMALLY ANNOUNCED A $90 BILLION INVESTMENT IN AI, ALONG WITH THE ENERGY NEEDED TO POWER IT.>> TODAY'S COMMITMENTS ARE E ...