Targa Resources (TRGP) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 01, 2025 11:00 AM ET Company Participants Tristan Richardson - VP - Investor RelationsMatthew Meloy - CEOJennifer Kneale - PresidentWilliam Byers - Executive Vice President & CFOSpiro Dounis - DirectorMichael Blum - Managing DirectorScott Pryor - President, Logistics and TransportationManav Gupta - Executive DirectorRobert Muraro - Chief Commercial OfficerKeith Stanley - DirectorJohn Mackay - VP - Equity ResearchAndrew O'Donnell - Director - Equity ResearchPa ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Targa reported record quarterly adjusted EBITDA of $1,179 million, a 22% increase year-over-year, primarily driven by higher Permian volumes [5][14][15] - The adjusted EBITDA increased 5% sequentially, attributed to the Badlands transaction and higher marketing margins [14] - The company expects full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $4,650 million to $4,850 million [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Permian, natural gas inlet volumes averaged over 6,000 million cubic feet per day, an 11% increase from a year ago, despite a 1% decrease from the previous quarter due to winter weather impacts [9][10] - NGL pipeline transportation volumes averaged 844,000 barrels per day, and fractionation volumes averaged 980,000 barrels per day, both impacted by winter weather events [11] - LPG export loadings averaged 13,400,000 barrels per month during the first quarter, with continued strength in cargo loadings [12][13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The forward crude price curve has shifted lower, but customers are not indicating material changes to their drilling programs for 2025 and 2026, suggesting continued volume growth [6][10] - The demand for LPGs globally remains strong, with long-term contracts in place, positioning the company well in the market [12][13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain a strong investment-grade balance sheet, invest in high-return integrated projects, and return increasing capital to shareholders [14][17] - Targa's integrated asset footprint and strong financial position, with over 90% fee-based revenue, are expected to generate attractive returns [7][14] - The company is focused on expanding its footprint in the Permian Basin and enhancing its logistics and transportation capabilities [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's positioning and outlook for 2025, citing strong producer relationships and multiyear drilling programs [6][24] - The company is well-prepared to navigate global tariff impacts and has managed operating costs effectively [13][14] - Management noted that the current environment allows for opportunistic share repurchases, with a focus on maintaining financial flexibility [14][49] Other Important Information - Targa has successfully completed a $2 billion debt offering to fund share repurchases and general corporate purposes [14][15] - The company has a pro forma consolidated leverage ratio of approximately 3.6 times, well within its long-term target range [15][17] Q&A Session Summary Question: How does Targa differ from others regarding customer relationships and positioning in the Permian? - Management highlighted their strong G&P footprint and relationships with well-capitalized producers, which provide resilience in drilling programs [22][24] Question: Can you elaborate on CapEx direction for 2026 relative to 2025? - Management indicated that CapEx will depend on activity levels, with ongoing growth capital projects expected to support future growth [26][30] Question: Are there any signs of optimization opportunities due to market volatility? - Management noted that they are seeing more opportunities to monetize positions, particularly in gas and NGL marketing [34][35] Question: What is the current hedging strategy and fee floor status? - Management confirmed that they are hedged 90% through 2026, which mitigates commodity price impacts on operating results [38][102] Question: How is the LPG export activity and destination changing? - Management reported no material change in activity levels but noted some shifts in cargo destinations due to market dynamics [43][46] Question: Would Targa consider small-scale bolt-on deals in the current environment? - Management stated that they remain open to bolt-on acquisitions if they meet return criteria, while focusing on organic growth opportunities [59][60] Question: What is the outlook for Permian production if crude prices remain flat? - Management suggested a baseline growth of 2% to 3% in gas production under flat crude oil conditions, with confidence in capturing a larger share of drilled volumes [98][105]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported production of 3.4 Bcfe per day, aligning with guidance, and generated $337 million in free cash flow, benefiting from strong natural gas and NGL premiums [22][23] - Drilling and completion capital was $157 million, representing 23% of the full-year guidance [22] - Total debt was reduced by over $200 million during the first quarter, with a total debt of $1.3 billion, the lowest among peers [23][26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average completed feet per day increased by 15% to 2,452 feet compared to 2023 [5] - The company averaged 12.3 completion stages per day, with a record of 18 stages achieved in March [6] - The NGL pricing outlook remains strong, with a projected premium of $1.5 to $2.5 per barrel to Mont Belvieu, an improvement from $1.41 in 2024 [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. propane exports are at record high levels, 7% above the previous year, indicating no impact on U.S. propane demand [16] - The faster-than-expected ramp-up at the Venture Global Plaquemines LNG facility has led to higher demand and pricing along the TGP 500 L transport [18] - The global LPG market is expected to adjust trade patterns, with increased U.S. LPG volumes heading to Europe and Asia [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maintaining a lean program with just two rigs and one completion crew to sustain production levels [7] - Antero is positioned to benefit from both LNG export growth and regional power demand through data center expansions [20] - The company has a strong organic leasing program, adding locations at low costs, and sees no immediate need for M&A [36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong fundamentals of the business, highlighting the ability to pivot between share buybacks and debt reduction based on market conditions [23][24] - The company remains bullish on natural gas demand growth, citing low rig counts and muted associated gas growth from other basins [89] - Management noted that local demand would need to increase significantly for the company to consider growing production beyond maintenance capital [60] Other Important Information - The company has hedged approximately 9% of expected natural gas volumes through 2026, locking in attractive rates [8] - Antero's capital efficiency is highlighted by the lowest maintenance capital per Mcfe among peers at $0.54 [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on LPG marketing agreements - The 90% figure refers to export volumes, with domestic sales also locked in at a high level [30] Question: Thoughts on M&A opportunities in U.S. shale - The company has a strong organic leasing program and sees no immediate need for M&A unless it is opportunistic and accretive [36] Question: Buyback strategy and future plans - The company is adopting a flexible approach, balancing between debt reduction and share buybacks based on market conditions [40][70] Question: Hedging strategy for 2026 - The company remains bullish and plans to continue hedging opportunistically while capturing premium pricing [46] Question: In-basin demand and local pricing dynamics - The company is focused on maintaining pricing based on NYMEX Henry Hub and is cautious about committing to local basis pricing without strong demand [84]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted EBITDA of $27 million for the first quarter, a 39% decline compared to the prior year quarter, primarily due to lower results in the Southern Timber and Real Estate segments [9][10] - The net loss attributable to the company was $3 million, or $0.02 per share, reflecting a challenging start to the year [15][16] - Cash available for distribution (CAD) decreased to $20 million from $31 million in the prior year period, driven by lower adjusted EBITDA [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Southern Timber segment, adjusted EBITDA was $27 million, down from the prior year, with harvest volumes declining by 21% and weighted average net stumpage realizations down 19% [10][19] - The Pacific Northwest Timber segment saw adjusted EBITDA increase to $6 million, despite an 18% decrease in harvest volumes, due to lower costs and higher net stumpage realizations [11][24] - The Real Estate segment generated adjusted EBITDA of $2 million, down from $5 million in the prior year, driven by fewer acres sold [12][26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Southern Timber segment faced challenging market conditions, with lower demand from mills and a shift in geographic mix to lower-priced regions [10][20] - In the Pacific Northwest, average delivered domestic sawlog pricing increased by 7% to $91 per ton, reflecting stronger demand from sawmills [24] - The company anticipates improved pricing in the second half of the year as salvage efforts moderate and operating conditions normalize [11][35] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on enhancing shareholder value through the sale of its New Zealand business for $710 million, which will allow for capital concentration in core markets with favorable long-term growth prospects [5][8] - The proceeds from the New Zealand sale are expected to be used for debt reduction and shareholder returns through share repurchases and a special dividend [8][9] - The company aims to streamline its portfolio and improve financial reporting, positioning itself for future growth opportunities in the U.S. [7][8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the second half of the year, expecting improvements in timber pricing and demand as the impact of salvage volume subsides [35][36] - The company remains focused on long-term value creation despite current economic uncertainties, with a positive outlook for housing demand and timber pricing driven by an underbuilt housing market [70][71] - Management highlighted the importance of navigating market headwinds while advancing strategic initiatives to build long-term shareholder value [34][37] Other Important Information - The company has completed or announced pending dispositions totaling $1.45 billion, significantly exceeding its original target of $1 billion [9] - The company plans to provide high-level quarterly guidance for adjusted EBITDA and EPS moving forward to manage expectations around variability in real estate segment results [33] Q&A Session Summary Question: How significant are labor constraints in logging and hauling today? - Management acknowledged that labor is a constant concern but noted improvements in productivity and long-term relationships with loggers could provide a competitive advantage if demand increases [40][42] Question: Can you provide more color around the attractiveness of options for the New Zealand proceeds? - Management indicated that share repurchases are viewed as a compelling use of capital, with significant remaining authorization for buybacks post-New Zealand transaction [43][44] Question: What is the outlook for lumber prices in response to higher Canadian import duties? - Management noted positive sentiment among sawmill customers, with some taking steps to secure more volume, but emphasized that current market uncertainty tempers immediate actions [50][52] Question: Can you elaborate on the negative mix shift within Southern Timber? - Management explained that the negative mix shift was due to a higher percentage of lower-priced Gulf Region timber and a shift towards pulpwood, impacting overall pricing [56][59] Question: Any updates on natural climate solutions like solar or carbon capture? - Management reported ongoing optimism regarding carbon capture storage opportunities and continued interest in solar leasing, with significant potential for future revenue streams [75][78]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted EBITDA of $27 million for the first quarter, a 39% decline compared to the prior year quarter, primarily due to lower results in the Southern Timber and Real Estate segments [8][9][14] - The net loss attributable to Rayonier was $3 million, or $0.02 per share, reflecting a challenging start to the year [13][14] - Cash available for distribution (CAD) decreased to $20 million from $31 million in the prior year period, driven by lower adjusted EBITDA [14][17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Southern Timber segment, adjusted EBITDA was $27 million, down 21% in harvest volumes and 19% in weighted average net stumpage realizations [9][18] - The Pacific Northwest Timber segment saw adjusted EBITDA increase to $6 million, despite an 18% decrease in harvest volumes, due to lower costs and higher net stumpage realizations [10][22] - The Real Estate segment generated adjusted EBITDA of $2 million, down from $5 million in the prior year, attributed to fewer acres sold [11][26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Southern Timber segment faced challenging market conditions, with a 21% decline in harvest volumes and a 19% decrease in weighted average stumpage prices due to softer demand and increased salvage volume [9][19] - In the Pacific Northwest, average delivered domestic sawlog pricing increased by 7% to $91 per ton, driven by stronger demand from sawmills [22] - The overall market for timber remains impacted by economic uncertainty, with expectations for improved pricing in the second half of the year as salvage volume declines [20][34] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on enhancing shareholder value through the sale of its New Zealand business for $710 million, which will allow for capital concentration in core U.S. markets [4][5] - Rayonier plans to use at least 50% of the sale proceeds to reduce leverage and return capital to shareholders through share repurchases and a special dividend [6][7] - The company aims to streamline its portfolio and capitalize on growth opportunities in the U.S. timber market while reducing exposure to log export markets [5][6] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism for improved market conditions in the second half of the year as salvage efforts moderate and operating conditions normalize [10][34] - The company anticipates full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $215 million to $235 million, excluding New Zealand operations, reflecting a generally stable outlook despite a slow start [12][29] - Management highlighted the long-term potential for growth in housing starts and lumber demand, despite current economic uncertainties [70][71] Other Important Information - The company has completed or announced asset dispositions totaling $1.45 billion, exceeding its original target of $1 billion [8] - The weighted average cost of debt was approximately 2.4%, with no debt maturities until 2026, positioning the company well for future capital allocation [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: How significant are labor constraints in logging and hauling today? - Management acknowledged that labor is a constant concern but noted improvements in productivity and sufficient labor availability to meet current demand [40][42] Question: Can you provide more color around the attractiveness of options for the New Zealand proceeds? - Management indicated that share repurchases remain a compelling use of capital, with $280 million remaining on the current repurchase authorization [43][44] Question: What is the outlook for lumber prices in response to higher Canadian import duties? - Management reported positive sentiment among sawmill customers, with some mills looking to secure more volume and potential price increases observed in recent negotiations [50][54] Question: Can you provide an update on natural climate solutions? - Management confirmed ongoing efforts in carbon capture and solar initiatives, with optimism about future developments in these areas [76][80]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues grew 10% year over year, exceeding $1,100,000,000 for the quarter [5][19] - Adjusted EBITDA reached $195,000,000, surpassing the top end of guidance by $15,000,000 [5][20] - Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.72, beating the guidance range of $0.55 to $0.61 [5][20] - Free cash flow usage was $143,000,000, lower than Q1 2024 and modestly favorable to 2025 estimates [23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Aerospace and Defense (A&D) represented 66% of total revenue in Q1, with defense sales growing 11% year over year [17][15] - Commercial jet engine sales grew 35% year over year, accounting for 37% of total Q1 revenue [12][13] - Airframe business represented 18% of Q1 revenue, with strong demand for titanium capabilities [14] - HPMC margins increased by 400 basis points year over year, driven by A&D core strength [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Industrial markets, representing approximately 20% of total business, are experiencing a wait-and-see posture from some customers [11] - Tariffs announced in 2025 represent approximately $50,000,000 in annual cost exposure prior to offsets, but minimal impact on full year earnings is anticipated [10][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on high-value A&D applications, with a strategic evolution validated by a reclassification to aerospace and defense [17] - Plans to repurchase up to $250,000,000 in shares in Q2, reflecting confidence in current share price [8][29] - The company is leveraging a diversified global supply chain to manage costs effectively amid trade uncertainties [9][52] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management remains confident in A&D demand, with robust backlogs and no cancellations reported [11][26] - The company anticipates Q2 results to mirror Q1, with growth expected later in the year [25] - Full year adjusted EBITDA guidance is affirmed at $800,000,000 to $840,000,000, with EPS guidance increased to $2.87 to $3.09 per share [25][30] Other Important Information - A new five-year agreement with Airbus worth approximately $1,000,000,000 was signed, significantly increasing participation [87][110] - The company has secured long-term contracts for critical alloys, ensuring supply stability into the next decade [113][116] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more color on aftermarket or MRO contribution to A&D growth this quarter? - Management noted strong demand from MRO, running at 40% to 50%, with expectations to double revenue from the GTF program in 2025 [36][38] Question: Do you think the U.S. and Ukraine mineral deal could impact ATI's sourcing of feedstock? - Management believes it could be positive in the long term, but not in the near term, as historical partnerships need qualification [44] Question: Can you elaborate on pricing at HPMC? - Pricing for titanium and nickel increased by 6% to 7% year over year, with long-term agreements allowing for price increases [49][50] Question: What offsets are in place for the $50,000,000 tariff impact? - Management highlighted a diversified supply chain, cost management, and contract mechanisms to mitigate tariff impacts [51][52][54] Question: Does the reiterated guide include contingencies for softer sales in industrial markets? - Yes, the guidance includes built-in risks related to industrial ordering patterns [63] Question: Can you discuss the growth of the isothermal forgings business? - The isothermal forgings business has grown substantially, with lead times extending into 2027 and expectations to exceed $1,000,000,000 in revenue this year [95] Question: What is the duration of contracts for sole source alloys? - Contracts for critical alloys extend into the middle of the next decade, with high barriers to entry for competitors [113][116]

Financial Performance - Q1 2025 sales were $741 million, a decrease of 1.9% compared to Q1 2024[12] - Core sales decreased by 0.7%[6, 12] - Adjusted diluted EPS increased by 4% year-over-year to $0.77[6, 12] - Adjusted operating profit margin decreased by 40bps year-over-year to 21.7%[6, 12] - Adjusted free cash flow increased by 22% year-over-year to $96 million, with a conversion rate of 83%[12] Segment Results - Environmental & Fueling Solutions (EFS) sales decreased by 0.4% to $330 million, but core sales increased by 0.9%[17] - Mobility Technologies (MT) sales increased by 11.5% to $271 million, with core sales up 12.7%[20] - Repair Solutions (RS) sales decreased by 16.1% to $153 million, with core sales down 15.9%[23] Balance Sheet and Capital Deployment - Gross debt was $2.103 billion, and net debt was $1.769 billion[25] - The net leverage ratio was 2.6x[25, 30] - The company repurchased approximately $55 million in shares during Q1 and replenished the share repurchase authorization by $500 million[7, 30] Guidance - Q2 2025 sales are expected to be between $725 million and $745 million, with core growth of approximately 6%[31] - Full year 2025 sales are projected to be between $2.97 billion and $3.05 billion, with core growth of approximately 2%[31] - Full year 2025 adjusted diluted net EPS is expected to be between $3.00 and $3.15[31] - The company anticipates adjusted free cash flow conversion of over 90% for the full year 2025[31] Tariff Impact - The estimated tariff impact for 2025 is approximately $50 million before pricing and additional mitigation actions[8]

Financial Performance - Company reported net revenues of $700.7 million for the first quarter of 2025, a decrease of 5.0% compared to $737.8 million in the prior year period [8][34] - GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) from continuing operations was $2.07, compared to $0.33 in the prior year period [8][46] - Adjusted diluted EPS from continuing operations was $2.91, down from $3.21 in the prior year period [8][46] Revenue by Segment - In the Americas, net revenue was $475.7 million, down 3.7% from $494.0 million [5][34] - EMEA segment reported net revenue of $151.2 million, a decrease of 5.3% from $159.6 million [5][34] - Asia segment saw a decline of 12.4%, with revenues of $73.8 million compared to $84.2 million [5][34] Revenue by Product Category - Vascular Access category reported revenues of $182.4 million, a slight increase of 0.6% from $181.4 million [7][34] - Interventional category revenues increased by 2.1% to $137.5 million from $134.7 million [7][34] - Anesthesia revenues decreased by 10.1% to $86.6 million from $96.4 million [9][34] Guidance and Outlook - Company raised its full-year 2025 revenue growth outlook on a GAAP basis to a range of 1.28% to 2.28% [10][11] - Adjusted diluted EPS guidance for 2025 was lowered to a range of $13.20 to $13.60, down from $13.95 to $14.35 [11][12] - Expected impact from tariffs in 2025 is approximately $55 million, which will be recorded in cost of goods sold [8][11] Strategic Initiatives - Company is evaluating strategies to mitigate exposure to tariffs and remains focused on executing its plan for the year [3] - Plans to separate Teleflex into two independent publicly traded companies, with significant third-party interest in acquiring NewCo [3]

Core Viewpoint - Graphic Packaging Holding Company has announced a new $1.5 billion share repurchase authorization, increasing the total available authorization to $1.865 billion as of April 30, 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Share Repurchase Authorization - The new authorization allows for share repurchases through open market transactions, privately negotiated deals, and Rule 10b5-1 plans, depending on market conditions and the company's financial status [2]. - The previous share repurchase authorization from July 27, 2023, had $365 million remaining, which is now combined with the new authorization [1]. Group 2: Financial Strategy and Dividend - The company's President and CEO, Michael Doss, indicated that capital spending needs will decline significantly as the Vision 2025 investment nears completion, allowing for excess cash generation [3]. - The Board of Directors has approved a 10% increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.11 per share, which was paid on April 5, 2025, to stockholders of record as of March 15, 2025 [3]. Group 3: Commitment to Shareholder Returns - The company plans to measure potential investments against the alternative of repurchasing stock and aims to return a substantial amount of cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in the future [4].

Core Viewpoint - Visa Inc. reported strong second-quarter earnings, exceeding analyst expectations, which reflects steady consumer spending despite market uncertainties [1][2]. Financial Performance - Visa's second-quarter earnings were $2.76 per share, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.68 [1]. - Quarterly revenue reached $9.59 billion, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of $9.55 billion [1]. - For FY25, revenue estimates are maintained at $39.5 billion, with adjusted EPS slightly raised to $11.30 from $11.20 [5]. Consumer Insights - Adjusted U.S. spending volumes remained steady in the fiscal second quarter and through April 28, indicating stable consumer health [2]. - There was a slight slowdown in cross-border activity, but U.S. payment volumes improved in April [2][4]. Positive Developments - Payment volumes remained strong with only a slight deceleration in fiscal Q2 [4]. - Value-added services revenue grew by 22% year over year, indicating resilience beyond spending cycles [4]. - Visa announced a new $30 billion share repurchase program, signaling confidence in its financial position [4]. Market Outlook - Full-year 2025 guidance remains unchanged, with management prepared to adjust if necessary based on data [3]. - Visa shares were trading higher by 0.49% to $343.18 following the earnings report [5].