Market Performance & Outlook - The market has experienced a significant rally of approximately 30% since the April lows [1][2] - The industry anticipates market consolidation in the coming month, influenced by seasonality and concerns regarding the Federal Reserve and the potential impact of AI on the labor force [5][6] - The industry expects to end the year higher, despite anticipating a period of consolidation [18] - The industry views that it's reasonable to expect the market to be up a couple of percentage points by the end of this year from current levels [19] Earnings & Growth - The industry expects high single-digit earnings growth for the full year 2025 and believes it's reasonable to expect similar numbers in 2026, even with a potential economic slowdown [7] - The industry's stock market return depends on multiple expansion, which is influenced by the Federal Reserve's actions [9] Interest Rates & Federal Reserve Policy - The industry anticipates a rate cut in September, with December being more likely than October [8] - The industry believes that the Federal Reserve is likely to pause and evaluate data, leading to macro volatility over the next 6 months [9] - The industry believes that expecting a rate cut at every meeting until mid-2026 may be unrealistic [9] Tariffs & Market Sentiment - The market is seeking certainty regarding tariffs, whether the original tariffs announced in April or a future version, to incorporate them into models [13] - The industry believes that the panic surrounding tariffs has subsided, and analysts are revising estimates upward, fading the worst-case scenarios [14]

Company Performance - The company has demonstrated consistent earnings growth over the past 12 years, with a compound annual growth rate of 9% in earnings over the last 5 years [3] - The return on invested capital for the company over the past 5 years has been 20%, indicating strong project execution and investment in high-return projects [4] Future Outlook - The company is positioned strongly for the future, with fundamentals supporting continued growth [5]

Core Insights - Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) reported adjusted earnings of $1.29 per share for fiscal 2025, a 30% increase from the previous year's adjusted earnings of 99 cents [1][6] - Revenues for fiscal 2025 rose 24% year over year to $4,071 million, with average gold prices received increasing 31% to $2,620 per ounce [1][6] Production and Costs - Gold production for fiscal 2025 was 1,479,671 ounces, reflecting a 5% decrease year over year [2][6] - Cash operating costs per ounce increased by 19% year over year to $1,499, while all-in-sustaining costs rose 20% to $1,806 per ounce [2][6] Financial Overview - As of June 30, 2025, cash and cash equivalents increased by 186% year over year to $738 million [3][6] - Total adjusted free cash flow surged 58% year over year to $614 million in fiscal 2025 [3][6] - Long-term debt at the end of fiscal 2025 was $107 million, up approximately 9% year over year [3][6] Outlook - Harmony Gold anticipates producing between 1.4 million and 1.5 million ounces of gold in fiscal 2026 [4] - Capital expenditures for fiscal 2026 are projected to rise to $699 million due to investments in high-quality ounces and long-term growth initiatives [4] Stock Performance - Shares of Harmony Gold have increased by 38.7% over the past year, compared to a 59.3% growth in the industry [5][6]

Company Overview - Central Pacific Financial (CPF) is based in Honolulu and operates in the Finance sector, specifically through Central Pacific Bank [3] - The company's shares have experienced a price change of 8.43% this year [3] Dividend Information - CPF currently pays a dividend of $0.27 per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 3.43%, which is higher than the Banks - West industry's yield of 2.75% and the S&P 500's yield of 1.47% [3] - The annualized dividend of $1.08 represents a 3.8% increase from the previous year [4] - Over the past five years, CPF has increased its dividend three times, averaging an annual increase of 3.02% [4] - The current payout ratio for CPF is 42%, indicating that the company pays out 42% of its trailing 12-month earnings per share as dividends [4] Earnings Growth - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CPF's earnings in 2025 is $2.85 per share, reflecting a year-over-year earnings growth rate of 21.79% [5] Investment Considerations - CPF is considered a compelling investment opportunity due to its strong dividend performance and solid earnings growth prospects [6] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating a stable investment outlook [6]

Market Outlook & Fed Policy - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve will acquiesce to the administration's desire for lower rates, regardless of specific economic data releases like PCE, jobs reports, or CPI [3][6] - Lower rates are expected to increase money supply, which is considered a primary driver of equity values and earnings growth [3][7] - The market is expected to follow the Fed's actions, reinforcing the mantra of "don't fight the Fed" [7] Sector Performance & Investment Strategy - Small caps have outperformed the broader market, rising over 7% this month [4] - Healthcare and consumer discretionary sectors have shown leadership this month [4] - The market is experiencing a broadening, suggesting a rising tide that will lift all boats [5] - Superior earnings growth is a key factor in sector selection, with tech and AI data center names expected to achieve 30%+ growth [8] GLP-1 Sector Analysis - The GLP-1 sector is currently experiencing a pullback due to a lack of an inflection point [9] - The GLP-1 market is predicted to reach a peak annual market size of $150 billion to $200 billion [9] - Metera is positioned as a leader in the evolution of the GLP-1 market [9]

Market Trends & Investment Strategy - Goldman Sachs indicates that approximately 61% of New York City stocks are trading above their 200-day moving average, nearing a year-to-date high [1] - Aspire maintains a bullish outlook, favoring large-cap core and growth stocks due to consistent earnings growth [2] - The market has adapted to the significant weighting of large technology stocks within the S&P 500 [3][4] Earnings Growth & Sector Rotation - Technology sector is projected to achieve four consecutive quarters of double-digit earnings growth this year and the next [4] - Consensus expectations point towards a broadening of earnings growth into industrials, materials, and financials in 2026, with S&P global market intelligence data foreshadowing $300 earnings per share [6] - Excluding the second quarter, financials are also anticipated to potentially experience double-digit earnings growth next year [6] Economic Indicators & Consumer Sentiment - The July employment report showed unexpected weakness, potentially influenced by Independence Day tariff announcements, which caused the S&P to decline by 12% in four trading days [8][9] - The strength of the US labor market, characterized by strong labor demand and non-farm payroll growth, has been a key factor in the bullish outlook for over two years [10][11] - Consistent weakness in payrolls would necessitate a reassessment of current assumptions, given the labor market's role in driving consumer confidence and spending [10][11]

Market Trends & Drivers - Russell 2000 上涨超过 7% [1] - 市场上涨的主要驱动力是预期美联储降息和利率下调 [1] - 借贷成本正在下降，这对市场有利 [3] - 估值反映了小盘股的许多负面消息，任何利好消息都会带来更好的市场前景 [5] Small Cap Performance & Outlook - 投资者对小公司的信心正在增强 [2] - 行业预期到 2026 年小盘股的盈利增长将优于大盘股 [2] - 自解放日低点以来，高收益率下降了 150 个基点 (1.5%) [3] - 高收益利差已回落至 2007 年的水平 [3] - 小盘股中没有盈利的公司的比例为 30%，但权重约为 18%，且这一比例有所下降 [6] - 行业普遍认为，未来六个季度小盘股的盈利增长将开始改善，未盈利公司的拖累将减少 [7] Risk Assessment - 目前的风险偏好较高，高收益利差低于 300 个基点 (3%) [7][8]

Meanwhile, S&P 500 did hit a record high this morning, pulling back from those highs with Nvidia's earnings now in the rearview mirror. What's next on the Catalyst Watch. CFR research chief investment strategist Sam Stovall is with us on this Thursday.Great to see you, Sam. Welcome back. Thank you, Carl.Good to talk to you again. So, um I guess is does PCE count. Are we really looking forward ahead to uh to the jobs number in the coming weeks.I think PCE does count, but less so than the jobs report. Uh Fed ...

Katrina Dudley of Franklin Templeton weighs in on this equity market writing. The US market has consolidated after a strong run, but breadth is improving small and mid-caps along with equal weight. S&P 500 are outperforming or keeping pace with the MAX seven.Historically, such rotations signal more durable market leadership and sustained equity gains. And please say that Katrina joins us now. She's senior investment strategist at Franklin Templeton.Katrina, great to see you. Thanks for coming in this mornin ...

Core Insights - UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) is facing significant pressure due to underestimating medical cost trends, leading to eroded margins and investor concerns [1][2] - Medical costs increased nearly 16% in the first half of 2025, following a 9.2% rise in 2024, with the cost ratio climbing from 83.2% in 2023 to an expected 89.4% by year-end 2025 [1][7] - The company has revised its EPS outlook down to at least $16, with earnings growth not anticipated until 2026 [2][7] Financial Performance - UNH missed earnings estimates in both quarters of 2025 and has seen a significant drop in its EPS outlook from $26–$26.50 to at least $16 [2][7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings is projected at $16.21 per share, indicating a 41.4% decline from the previous year [10] Market Reaction - Despite the turmoil, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway purchased over 5 million shares of UNH, valued at approximately $1.57 billion, which spurred additional buying from other investors [3] - UNH shares are down 39.7% year-to-date, which is a steeper decline compared to the industry average of 30.8% [6][7] Industry Context - Peers such as Centene Corporation (CNC) and Elevance Health, Inc. (ELV) are also experiencing challenges due to rising medical costs, leading to significant cuts in their earnings guidance for 2025 [5] - Centene has reduced its adjusted EPS outlook to $1.75 from $7.25, while Elevance has lowered its forecast to $30 from a previous range of $34.15–$34.85 [5] Valuation Metrics - UNH currently trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 17.87, above the industry average of 14.96 [9] - The stock carries a Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell), reflecting the current market sentiment [13]