US retail sales rose in July in a broad-based advance, boosted by car sales and major online promotions in a sign consumers stepped up their spending in recent months. https://t.co/LZR3Atk3NM ...

London is bearing the brunt of the UK’s jobs slowdown as a combination of tax rises, elevated wage costs and weak consumer spending force the city’s business to cut payrolls faster than in the rest of the country https://t.co/TwagEt9m85 ...

Restaurant Industry Trends - Full-service restaurants are performing well as consumers still seek dining experiences [1][2] - A bifurcated economy exists where higher-end dining occasions are doing better than transactional options [2] - Consumers are shifting from fast food/quick service to sit-down meals, willing to spend a bit more for the experience [3] - People are prioritizing family/friend meals over daily transactional purchases like Starbucks or workday salads [4] Company Performance & Outlook - Chipotle faced a tough year with negative same-store sales in Q2, partly due to comparison issues and a slowdown in the fast-casual sector [5] - Despite challenges, Chipotle is viewed favorably due to its value, new store performance, and good margins [6] - Cava experienced an expectations mismatch after being considered the "Chipotle of Mediterranean," but new restaurants are performing strongly [6][7] - Cava's earnings were slightly ahead of estimates, suggesting no major issues, but the company is working through growing pains [7]

Sales Performance - CAVA Group's same-restaurant sales fell short of estimates [1] Consumer Behavior - Consumers reduced spending [1]

Market Trends & Investment Landscape - Stocks rallied after CPI data release, with major indexes closing higher [1] - Retail investment volumes increased by 23% in the first half of the year compared to 2024 [4] - Brick-and-mortar stores are performing well, accounting for approximately 80% of total retail sales in America [15] - Small business optimism index rose over 1.5 percentage points in July, driven by improved business conditions and expansion plans [40] Consumer Behavior & Spending - US consumers continue to spend, but are shifting towards value retailers like Walmart, TJX, Marshalls, and Dollar General to maximize their dollar [4][5][7] - Consumers are prioritizing essential spending for back-to-school and holiday shopping, rather than discretionary purchases [9] - The top 20% of household income earners in America account for approximately 50% of all consumer spending [24] - Amazon Prime's four-day sales reached $24 billion, exceeding Black Friday sales [18] Economic Factors & Challenges - Labor market softness is causing consumers to feel a pinch and seek better value for their money [6][7] - Retailers are absorbing tariff costs to avoid scaring off consumers with price increases, potentially impacting their bottom line in the short term [19][20] - Concerns exist about the potential impact of tariffs on small businesses and the need for deregulation [43] - There's a growing adoption of AI among small businesses, with adoption rates increasing from 7% to almost 26% [49]

Inflation & Tariffs - Core CPI annualized basis came in a little hotter than expected, at the highest since February [2] - Sequential core inflation and underlying inflation data are showing an uptick after two years of moving closer to the Fed target [3] - Tariff pass-through is having a moderate impact and is likely to grow in the months ahead [3] - Import-sensitive categories like furniture, appliances, and car parts are seeing a shift towards higher inflation [4] Economic Growth & Labor Market - Recent economic data shows some labor market weakening and slowing in economic activity and growth [4] - There are medium-term questions about the effect of tariffs on both inflation and economic growth/employment [4] Consumer Spending & Impact on Working Class - Tariffs disproportionately affect low and moderate-income households [8] - Wage growth is slowing down at the bottom of the income distribution [9] - Consumer spending has been almost flat in the aggregate over the last six months, likely weaker at the bottom of the distribution [9] Healthcare & Student Loans - Premiums for those getting healthcare through Affordable Care Act exchanges will increase, in some cases by 10-20% starting in 2026 [11] - The turning off of the student loan pause is already showing its way in some of the credit score data [12] - There are challenges in the bottom half of the distribution that policymakers will need to be attuned to [13] Data Integrity - It's critical that members of the US Senate interrogate the nominee and press him on whether he can commit to providing credible nonpartisan data completely free from political interference [5] - Business leaders and market participants should make their voices heard about the importance of US economic data being respected [6]

Liz Everett Chrisberg is here and >> the good thing you're bringing us new data I'm told instead of like last month's. No, >> that's fant that is fantastic. Just to make it clear, this is new data.Bank of America Institute reporting consumer spending rose again in July. The consumer is sort of okay. Up 1.8%.Is that good. Year-over-year. >> I'd say it's more than sort of okay. Um, >> it's really sort of okay. >> Well, it's sort of okay.So, so consumer spending year-over-year up 1.8%. If we were to do seasona ...

Morning Joe. The CNBC NRF retail monitor jumped to its best monthly game since we be gain before since we began assembling the data in 2022. That's a likely sign of some combination of a resilient consumer, big midsummer promotions from retailers and possibly tariffed inflation.The NRF monitor, it's fueled by real credit card spending data from D from Affinity Solutions. It jumped 1 and a.5% in July from a negative 0.3% in June. The measure is X autos and gas.Total retail sales year-over-year up a strong 5. ...

Well, later uh this week, the government is going to release retail uh sales data first. So, we have the CNBC NRF retail monitor for you uh ready to go this morning. Senior economics reporter Steve Leeman joins us now with the numbers.Hey, Steve. Morning, Joe. The CNBC NRF retail monitor jumped to its best monthly game since we be game before since we began assembling the data in 2022.That's a likely sign of some combination of a resilient consumer, big midsummer promotions from retailers, and possibly tari ...

Retail Sector Pricing Strategies - Retailers are quietly increasing prices due to rising costs, but are wary of backlash [2][3] - Retail is a low-margin business, making it difficult for retailers to absorb higher costs [4] - Consumers are showing some selectivity in their purchases, with discretionary and higher-priced items being more at risk [7] Inflation and Tariffs - The White House argues that higher prices from tariffs are a one-time event and not an inflationary pressure [8] - Loop Capital Markets believes that tariffs could lead to an inflationary spiral, requiring retailers to raise prices repeatedly [9] - Inflation ticked up last month, and job numbers were worse, impacting retailers [10] Investment Opportunities - Warby Parker and National Vision are favored due to glasses being a non-discretionary medical necessity, allowing for price increases [11][12] - Savers Value Village, a thrift store operator with an average unit retail of less than $5, could benefit from consumers trading down [12][13] Long-Term Outlook - The sustainability of tariffs and their potential to cause significant economic harm remains a key question [14] - If tariffs cause significant economic harm, many of them will likely be rolled back [15]