Economic Overview - Stagflation is characterized by weak or negative growth, high unemployment, and high inflation, with current conditions indicating a lowercase stagflation since the pandemic [1][2] - Economic growth is measured by GDP, which reflects domestic production, while GNP tracks earnings of Americans globally [2][3] Inflation Metrics - Key inflation indicators include the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), with the latter being favored by the Federal Reserve for its broader scope [3][4] - Distinction between headline inflation, which includes food and energy, and core inflation, which excludes these volatile components, is crucial for understanding inflation trends [4] Employment Indicators - The unemployment rate and monthly payroll changes are monitored closely, along with weekly unemployment claims, to gauge labor market health [5] - Historical data shows that during the 1970s stagflation, unemployment exceeded 7-8% with double-digit inflation and contracting GDP [6] Current Economic Conditions - Presently, unemployment is modest, PCE is in the high twos, and GDP remains strong, indicating that the economy is not in a severe stagflation scenario like the 1970s [7][8] - Precious metals have seen significant price increases, with gold up over 40% and silver nearing 60% this year, reflecting a response to elevated inflation and current interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8] Monitoring Indicators - Key indicators to watch include jobs data, CPI, PCE, and GDP, with a focus on services inflation, shelter costs, and healthcare expenses [9] - Fluctuations in oil prices or a weaker dollar could quickly impact headline inflation, necessitating close monitoring of real incomes versus consumer demand [10] Conclusion - There is a potential risk of lowercase stagflation, but it is unlikely to escalate to the levels seen in the 1970s or 80s based on current observations [11]

Spain was upgraded by Moody’s Ratings and Fitch Ratings, a double-whammy that recognizes the economy’s standout growth performance in the euro area https://t.co/uJP7PBRvqH ...

The IMF and the Bank of England expect Britain’s annual growth rate to remain around 1.5% over the next three years—the same sluggish pace it has managed since 2008.Will the Labour Party’s ideas ever work? https://t.co/GQIXZTgCcG ...

Industry Perspective - Robotics is seen as essential to U S economic growth and national security [1] - The U S needs to beat China in robotics [1] Leadership Insight - Jeff Cardenas, CEO and co-founder of Apptronik, shares his views [1]

Is there any reason for the United States to be doing this beyond the fact that it's embarrassing for Trump's chainsaw buddy to you know need a bailout like to to like I would say it's primarily that it's embarrassing for his chainsaw buddy by the way we should get back to a second for you know to to the bailout that that the Trump team is giving me le because it's interesting one of the things that when they handed him the 20 billion or they're going to hand him a$20 billion swap line which is a form of cr ...

The Spanish economy expanded more than initially reported in the second quarter, cementing its standout performance in the region https://t.co/Mjw1rsbUvz ...

Indonesia’s long-term economic growth will likely miss President Prabowo Subianto's 8% target, according to research firm BMI https://t.co/Sfw0CFf9v2 ...

Hello everyone. Today we are going to deeply analyze all the current economic data with the goal of deciding whether we are bullish or bearish right now. We'll discuss the US government's new obsession with buying equity and important companies.And finally, we're going to ponder the big question of whether the Bitcoin 4-year cycle is that going to remain or not. We're live today from the desk of Anthony Pompiano. [Music] Before we get into today's episode, I need your help.My goal is to get to 1 million sub ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy grew by 3.8% in Q2, surpassing the previous estimate of 3.3% [1] - Economic growth is outpacing elevated inflation significantly, according to Northlight Asset Management [4] - New orders for durable goods increased by 2.9% in August after two months of declines [4] Stock Market Performance - Major U.S. equity indexes extended their losing streaks to three days, with the Dow Jones down 0.4%, S&P 500 down 0.5%, and Nasdaq down 0.5% [7] - The S&P 500 is currently more than 2% above the average year-end analyst forecast [4] Company Highlights - IBM's stock rose by 5.2% after HSBC reported using its quantum computers for bond market predictions, achieving a 34% improvement over classical methods [8] - Intel's stock surged by 8.9% amid reports of soliciting an equity investment from Apple, with a year-to-date increase of 69.5% [8][9] - CarMax's stock fell by 20.1% after reporting Q2 earnings of 64 cents per share, below the consensus estimate of $1.04, and same-store sales declined by 6.3% [10] - Lithium Americas' stock increased by 22.3% as it discusses an equity stake with the Trump administration, linked to a $2.26 billion loan for its Thacker Pass mine [12][13]

Let's get more on that burst of positive economic news out this morning. Refllies inflation adjusted GDP for the second quarter came in at a healthy 3.8%. That was stronger than the 3.3% figure that was previously reported.And meanwhile, in a sign of strength for the labor market, initial jobless claims edged lower to 218,000 and July existing home sales, which just crossed ticked higher to just over 4 million. So, how does the US economy keep chugging along amid what seems like a drum beat of dire predicti ...