Monetary Policy - New Zealand's rate cut is mentioned, potentially influenced by factors similar to those favored by Trump [1] - The report raises concerns about the possibility of inflation not subsiding [1]

Market Analysis & Prediction - The report anticipates a significant market correction in September, triggered by the FED's rate cut, unlike the insignificant cut in September 2024 [2] - The analysis points to Bitcoin's bearish chart patterns, including a CME gap around 93 thousand, liquidity concentration in the 90-95 thousand region, and the need to retest the EMA50 weekly, suggesting a correction towards the 93-95 thousand range [3] - The report highlights bearish divergences on daily and weekly Bitcoin charts, reinforcing the expectation of a correction [3] - The author expects ETH to run to 7-8 thousand and Bitcoin to push toward 145-150 thousand after the September correction [5] Retail Investor Behavior - On-chain metrics indicate retail investors typically buy high and sell low, exemplified by their late entry between 110-120 thousand after the June dip from 110 thousand to 98 thousand was largely bought by big players [4] - The market needs to flush out retail investors who entered heavily at high levels, driving prices down to their liquidation zone of 90-95 thousand before the next upward movement [4] - The current market sentiment is described as a "fake bullish sentiment" fueled by euphoria, endless expectations, and blind trust in authority, which is considered a bull trap [4] Trading Strategy - The author has been taking daily profits of 10% from ETH and BTC holdings since August 18th, rolling it into building a short position within a defined "short area" [5] - The author's strategy involves accumulating shorts and distributing spot holdings within the mentioned short area, focusing solely on BTC and excluding ETH or other altcoins [5] - The author's current portfolio allocation is 60% Cash + Shorts and 40% Spot bags, with a daily shift of 10% from Spot into Shorts, using x5 leverage [5]

Last time the 🇺🇸 FED cut rates in September, Q4 turned massively bullish.Will history repeat ? https://t.co/klHh7n7Vw7 ...

So, we're here at Jackson Hole at the Kansas Fed's annual economic symposium where there is clearly a lot of jockeying for position and that position is the new Fed chair. Do you have an opinion on monetary policy. So, we just had Jerome Pal's speech at Jackson Hole where he just opened the door to a rate cut in September.Is this Waller one of the guys who's in the running for the next Fed chair. There's so much ambiguity right now, but within that, somebody has to nail it. Yeah.Well, I nailed it. No questi ...

Last time the FED cut rates in September.Bitcoin and Ethereum exploded shortly after.History will repeat. https://t.co/HoOl3qbwRj ...

Monetary Policy & Fed Credibility - The Fed's credibility is at risk if political pressure influences rate cuts, potentially clouding public perception of their decision-making [1] - While individual members are focused on their responsibilities, communication challenges arise due to external pressures [2] - Maintaining anchored long-run inflation expectations is critical for the committee's work [6] Inflation Concerns & Challenges - The Fed faces a significant challenge in keeping consumer inflation expectations anchored, especially given the difficulty in consistently achieving the 2% target [5] - Upside risks to inflation exist, and the committee emphasizes the importance of well-anchored long-run inflation expectations [6] - Consumer and business sentiments diverge regarding inflation expectations, creating uncertainty about future inflation [7] - Inflation is already above the Fed's target, and tariff effects further complicate disentangling the drivers of inflation [8] - The committee faces the challenge of keeping its credibility and inflation expectations anchored amidst uncertainty about the impact of tariffs [11] Tariffs & Economic Impact - Tariffs' impact on prices is viewed as potentially fleeting but the possibility of a persistent impact is not ruled out [9] - The discretionary implementation of tariffs by country makes it difficult to assess their impact on inflation [10] - Significant uncertainty exists regarding the economic outlook [12] Labor Market Dynamics - Tightening immigration policy impacts the labor market, potentially leading to higher labor costs for firms [13] - Wage impact and price effects are interconnected, influencing companies' decisions on cost pass-through and worker compensation [14] - The labor market is reacting to both supply and demand factors, contributing to the current unemployment rate [15] - Understanding the dynamics affecting both price inflation and labor rates is crucial for the Fed's decision-making [15]

That is the closing bell on Wall Street. And now it's market domination overtime. We're giving you full team coverage of all the moves to get you up to speed on the action for today's trade.Lou Bassin, Prairie Operating Company, EVP of Market Strategy, as well as Yahoo Finance's very own Jared Blickery joining us now to break down the move today. Jared, my friend, let's start with you on that close. Yeah, let's talk about POW here.We got the POW put in effect. A lot of traders love the uh the hint at Septem ...

Market Focus on Fed and Nvidia - The market is in wait-and-see mode ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, with investors hoping for signals of potential interest rate cuts [3] - Nvidia's upcoming earnings report is considered by some to be more important than Powell's speech, highlighting the market's focus on AI [49] Interest Rate Expectations and Inflation Concerns - Markets anticipate Powell addressing inflation, with concerns that he may prioritize price stability over labor market issues, potentially reducing rate cut probabilities [14] - There's debate on whether Powell will signal a 25 basis point rate cut in September while managing inflation concerns [17] - Some analysts believe Powell may not signal any rate cuts, potentially leading to market disappointment and increased speculation on future rate cuts based on incoming data [29][31] Economic Indicators and Retail Performance - Big retailers like Walmart and Target have warned about high prices impacting their businesses, aligning with concerns from the hot Producer Price Index [9] - Consumer sentiment reports indicate rising inflation expectations, with Cleveland Fed President noting inflation has been too high for four years and trending in the wrong direction [10] - Goldman Sachs economists suggest the economy could see only 30,000 net new jobs per month in the near term [11] Tech Stock Movements - Nvidia shares are down about 2% following reports of the company pausing H20-related chip production for China due to alleged security concerns [5] - Google's Alphabet is experiencing a positive movement after winning a multi-billion dollar cloud contract from Meta spanning over six years [6] - Palantir shares are down 13% over the past five days, reflecting market nervousness, but are still up 100% year-to-date [34][35] Nvidia's Outlook and AI Market - Analysts have increased Nvidia's price targets, with the average target about 10% above current price levels, anticipating strong AI demand [41] - Concerns exist about Nvidia's potential market cap exceeding its current 8% weighting in the S&P 500 [43][51] - Nvidia's sales are expected to jump about 50% this quarter, indicating continued growth in the AI sector [53] Cracker Barrel's Logo Change Impact - Cracker Barrel initially lost $200 million in market capitalization following the CEO's decision to change the company's logo, ultimately ending the day down $100 million [39] - Cracker Barrel's total market cap now stands at $1.22 billion [40]

CNBC and streaming on CNBC plus. >> Welcome back to The Exchange. We're seeing a big divergence in the consumer trade today.Discretionary stocks are the best performers while staples is the only sector in the red after Powell paved the way for a September rate cut. My next guest expects that divide to remain. Joining me now is Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy of B of a securities.And Savita, it's great to have you on. This divergence we're seeing in the consumer and specific ...

But does a rate cut really change the narrative in the tech trade or is this just an overreaction. Joining me now is Ken Gilleski, senior internet analyst at Wells Fargo. Ken, it's great to have you on.We'll start right there. What does a rate cut do for tech. >> Yeah, so thank you so much for having me on.So it's an interesting place. We we had a really strong second quarter with advertising. you take us back, right.April, we were staring down the barrel of of of tariffs and a lot of fear and then what we ...