The interest rates in the US are too high right now given the the health of the economy. If you have an economy that's changing rapidly for the better, it will produce more goods. Uh and that that is not getting uh accommodated uh within the Fed's policies.So the US should have a lower yield curve because the economy is so strong. That's not part of the Fed's model. Central banks tend to say no if things are really good then we raise rates.That's the reverse of what the the what should be going on. Final po ...

Government Funding & Potential Shutdown - Congress faces a September 30th deadline to avoid a government shutdown [2] - Pocket rescissions proposed by President Trump, which aim to cancel previously approved funding, are a key point of contention [2][3] - Democrats warn that unilateral clawbacks of previously approved funds would undermine bipartisanship needed to fund the government [3] - Senator Susan Collins opposes rescinding appropriated funds without congressional approval, calling it a violation of the law [3] - Disagreement over pocket rescissions is complicating funding negotiations between Congress, Democrats, and the White House [5][6] - House Democrats are prepared to withhold votes as leverage on issues including the Fed, CDC, and pocket rescissions [8] - Senate Democrats may take a different approach to the funding fight due to internal and external pressure [11] Epstein Files & Transparency - Lawmakers are returning to the issue of releasing the Jeffrey Epstein files [1] - Congressmen Ro Khanna and Thomas Massie will hold a joint news conference with Epstein victims [2][12] - A discharge petition is being pursued to compel a vote on releasing the Epstein files [16] - Republican leaders hoped a recess would diminish the issue's momentum, but it remains a focus [12][13] - There is public demand for transparency from the DOJ regarding the Epstein files [14] - Some Republicans feel pressure to release the files, creating a difficult situation for the White House [16] - Khanna and Massie may have enough votes to force a vote on the discharge petition [18] Federal Reserve & Political Influence - Senate Democrats are demanding a postponement of confirmation hearings for a Federal Reserve nominee [19] - Democrats are concerned about the attempted firing of Fed Governor Cook, viewing it as an attempt by Trump to control the Federal Reserve [20][21] - Democrats believe Trump wants to influence the Fed to lower interest rates [22][23] - Republicans may have private reservations about Trump's actions regarding the Fed's independence [24]

Euro Strength & Political Risks - Despite political instability in France and concerns over the Spanish budget, the euro has maintained its strength, trading near 1.20-1.21 levels [1][2] - The euro's resilience contrasts with last year's French political crisis, where the euro weakened significantly against the dollar and pound [3] - The euro's strength is attributed to dollar weakness rather than euro strength, remaining above $0.86 against the pound [4] Dollar Weakness & US Economic Factors - Persistent dollar weakness has been observed over the past five days and throughout the year [5] - Key catalysts for the dollar include expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which are largely priced in [6] - Upcoming payrolls data and inflation figures could shift the picture, potentially making the euro and other currencies more vulnerable and impacting the dollar [7] - Macro uncertainty and a likely lower rate environment are expected to support further dollar weakening [8] Gold & Precious Metals Market - Gold has exceeded April records, coinciding with tariff turmoil and dollar weakness [8][9] - A "sell the US story" is emerging, driving movement towards precious metals [9] - Weaker US economic data in the coming weeks could disrupt the precious metals market [10]

All right, joining us now, NBC News business and data correspondent Brian Chung. Also with us here on set, Axio senior economic reporter Courtney Brown. Brian, I'm going to start with you.For those of us who've been just overwhelmed and maybe on holiday or maybe just can't handle it anymore, can you please remind us what tariffs are in question here. Which ones this ruling uh cover and and what could be impacted. >> Yeah, Christina, this this did happen very late on Friday as people were beginning the their ...

Consumer Sentiment & Economic Outlook - Consumers are struggling with higher interest rates, especially concerning housing affordability [2][3] - Businesses are generally performing well, with optimism growing due to new tariffs [3] Deposit Insurance Reform - Regional banks and larger banks have a discrepancy in deposit share, with larger banks being more aggressive [4][5] - The current deposit insurance system is considered broken, favoring larger banks with an implicit guarantee over deposits [6][7] - The market share of the largest four banks has doubled since 2008-2010, unintended by Dodd-Frank [7] - After SVB's failure in 2023, 87% of deposits left regional banks for larger banks [8] - Regional banks are crucial for providing loans to Main Street, exemplified by their greater involvement in PPP loans (larger banks provided only 16%) [9] Competition & Future Trends - Stable coins pose a potential competitive threat to both regional and larger banks [10][11] - Some larger banks operate more like hedge funds, with lower loan-to-deposit ratios (e.g., JP Morgan at 55%) compared to regional banks (e.g., WAFED at 98%) [12][13] - AI is expected to significantly impact headcount, potentially reducing it by around 50% in the next decade [16][17]

Interest Rate & Political Influence - Greater political influence over the Fed is expected to raise interest rates [1] - The increased interest rates are attributed to the heightened risk of poor decision-making [1] Potential Risks - The situation presents an irony, considering Donald Trump's desires [1]

Trade & Tariffs - The US imposed a 50% tariff on India, impacting goods like drugs, jeans, textiles, and jewelry, while smartphones are exempted [1][2][3][5] - The tariffs on India are partly due to India's purchase of Russian oil, which the US sees as fueling Putin's war in Ukraine [2] - The US administration celebrates tariff revenue, which is about $110 billion this year, but this revenue ultimately comes from American companies and consumers [8] - The tariff revenue could generate trillions of dollars over the coming decade, potentially offsetting revenue loss from tax cuts [10] - Tariffs can have a positive fiscal effect but also a negative economic and questionable foreign policy effect [12] Federal Reserve & Economic Policy - The President has been critical of the Fed chairman for not lowering interest rates, which he believes would spur the economy and lower housing costs [15] - Lowering interest rates could raise inflation, which is a concern for many economists [16] - The President's pressure on the Fed is seen by some as an effort to distract from economic concerns [19] - The Federal Reserve is designed to be a shock absorber for the American economy, independent from political influence [21][22] - Political pressure on the Fed threatens its independence and could lead to premature interest rate cuts, potentially pushing up inflation [25][27] - The Treasury Secretary claimed inflation has plummeted to 19%, but the official inflation reading is a little more than 27% [28][31]

Political Influence on Institutions - The analysis suggests a pattern of exerting control and consolidating power within the presidency [3] - Actions such as criticizing the Federal Reserve's decisions are interpreted as attempts to influence interest rates to boost equity prices [1] - Scrutiny of individuals like Lisa Cook is framed as a pretext, with the underlying motive being control rather than addressing specific allegations [1] Parallels in Actions - Sending National Guard troops to Washington DC is compared to other actions, suggesting a common theme beyond the stated reasons [2] - Attacking universities and demanding large payouts is viewed as more than just combating anti-semitism [2] - Punishing law firms is seen as unrelated to diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives [2]

Federal Reserve & Nomination - A legal challenge is anticipated regarding Fed Governor Lisa Cook [1] - The nominee for Lisa Cook's replacement should be 100% above board, especially concerning mortgages [2] - The decision for the position is very important, with multiple individuals involved in the selection process [3][4] Economic Impact & Housing Market - High interest rates are negatively impacting the housing market's potential [4] - The current administration aims to rectify the situation quickly [5]

Fed Policy & Interest Rates - The market interprets Fed Chair J Pal's statements in Jackson Hole as widening options, suggesting a rate cut could be considered based on recent data, but it was not a commitment [10][11] - A rate cut is worthy of consideration by the committee [10] - The committee is likely to wait for the total data picture in mid-September before making decisions [9] Lisa Cook Situation & Fed Credibility - The situation surrounding Lisa Cook's potential removal is a distraction and a sideshow that is not good for the credibility of the Fed and its focus on mandated objectives [6] - Lisa Cook is expected to resist the dismissal, claiming it is wrongful termination, potentially with the Fed's backing [5] - The White House believes they have the authority in this situation [5] - The central question revolves around the definition of "for cause" and whether it applies to actions before Senate confirmation [2] Market Reaction - The market's lack of strong reaction to the Lisa Cook situation is not surprising, as it is seen as part of a pattern of actions designed to pressure the Fed to lower interest rates [7] - The market may be waiting to see how the situation plays out, considering Lisa Cook is just one vote on the FOMC [8] Economic Data - The economic picture is mixed, with some good numbers in capital goods orders [9] - There is a need to avoid overreacting to one labor report, with more data to come in September [9]