From @WSJopinion: Europe will never keep its promises to Trump on defense. The bloc is staggering under the fiscal weight of foolish welfare, climate and immigration policies, writes @gerardtbaker. https://t.co/eUqWQaLc2k ...

Investment Rating - Overweight on Japanese equities with an end-of-year target for TOPIX at 3,000 and Nikkei Average at ¥40,000 [8][9][10] Core Insights - Corporate earnings remain resilient, particularly in domestic demand-oriented sectors, with no change in guidance at manufacturers and upward revisions at non-manufacturers [6][8] - The report anticipates a gradual yen appreciation to ¥140/$ by December 2025, with manageable impacts on share prices [8][10] - The impact of reciprocal tariffs is expected to be manageable, with a 10% reciprocal tariff already priced in by the market [8][10] Summary by Themes Theme 1: Impact of Trump Tariffs - Expect only a 4-6% EPS decline for Japanese companies due to US tariffs, with the largest impact on the autos sector [10][62] - Share prices in the autos sector have already factored in successful negotiations, assuming tariffs are lowered to 10% [10][62] Theme 2: Domestic Economic Activity and Bank of Japan Outlook - Moderate improvement in domestic economic activity is anticipated due to peaking import inflation and spring wage hikes [10][8] - The Bank of Japan is gradually moving toward policy normalization, with expectations for the next rate hike in late 2025 [10][8] Theme 3: Forex Rate Impact on Japanese Stocks - A moderate yen appreciation is expected, with a cross-asset view assuming dollar strength and yen weakness [10][8] Theme 4: Corporate Reform and ROE Improvement - More companies are committing to balance sheet reforms, with total payout ratios over 100% and management restructuring initiatives [10][8] Theme 5: Fund Flow - Fund flow trends indicate a shift towards buying European and Japanese stocks post-tariff shock, with NISA purchases continuing for both foreign and domestic stocks [10][8] Political Landscape - The report highlights key political events in 2025, including the Upper House election and potential impacts on the ruling coalition's status [11][19] - The consumption tax cut is a hot topic ahead of the Upper House election, with various party pledges regarding tax policies [21][28]

Geopolitical Landscape - Iceland, a founding member of NATO, has historically depended on the United States for its defense [1] - Europe is rearming, and the United States is pressuring countries that are lagging in defense spending [1] - Iceland is feeling increased pressure related to defense contributions [1]

Geopolitical & Defense - The US government plans to send more weapons to Ukraine [1] - The weapons are primarily defensive [1] - The US government acknowledges Ukraine is getting hit very hard [1] Political Commentary - The speaker expresses dissatisfaction with President Putin [1] - The speaker believes the situation would not have occurred under their presidency [2]

特朗普在接待以色列总理内塔尼亚胡的晚宴上表示，美国将对乌克兰输送更多武器。特朗普还补充说，乌克兰需要实现其自卫。特朗普说：“我们将不得不提供更多武器，主要是防御性武器。” ...

Geopolitics & Defense - Stretching the definition of defense to the breaking point won't fortify Europe [1]

Defense Industry Focus - Europe's new defense pledges made headlines [1] - Meeting deadlines is more important than just making pledges [1]

Defense Spending & NATO - NATO aims to reach 5% defense spending target, requiring difficult decisions from member states [5] - The challenge lies in justifying defense spending during peacetime [5] - NATO Secretary General is working to keep European countries united on defense spending [6] - Discussions include opening financial possibilities for member states to spend more and promoting joint procurement [7] - The 2% of GDP spending pledge by 2024 was not met by all countries [9] - The summit's primary goal is to secure agreement on moving to 5% of defense spending [10] - Article 5 of NATO is clear: an attack on one is an attack on all [13] Geopolitical Issues & Ukraine - Every new war diverts attention from ongoing conflicts, such as the one in Ukraine [17] - The EU has supported Ukraine's military with €24 billion in 2024, exceeding last year's support [18] - The EU is pursuing an 18th package of sanctions against Russia [18] - Discussions are planned regarding the use of Russian frozen assets to aid Ukraine [19][20] International Relations & Trade - The EU is working towards a trade deal with the United States by July 9th [20] - Canada's potential relationship with the EU is being considered, despite geographical challenges [21][22]

Space Industry Funding & Investment - Global space economy investment from the public side reached approximately €100 billion last year [5] - The United States accounts for 60% of global public space investment, primarily through NASA and the Space Force [5] - Europe's share of global public space investment is 10%, a factor of six less than the US [5] - For every €1 invested in the Copernicus program, it brings back about €5 into the economy [3] European Space Agency (ESA) Strategy & Development - ESA is preparing for a major funding round in November, seeking increased investment from member states like Germany, France, and Italy [8][9] - ESA aims to foster a competitive space industry landscape in Europe, supporting both large and small companies [20] - ESA is shifting towards becoming an anchor customer for launch services, encouraging industry to develop innovative solutions [22][23] - ESA is developing a program for European resilience from space, focusing on security and defense needs [11] Industry Consolidation & Launch Capability - Airbus, Leonardo, and Thales are in discussions to merge their space businesses, potentially creating a very large company [18][19] - Europe needs more launch capability, exploring new launch services and aiming for new launchers to replace existing ones in the mid-next decade [21][26] - New European launch companies may emerge, but achieving reusability and heavy-lift capabilities like SpaceX will take time, potentially 10-15 years [24][25]

I think let's work for a sustainable negotiated agreement with the United States and I'm hopeful that we can achieve that. I think that we have to do with an administration in the US who is um trying to push us against the wall but at the same time these are our friends longstanding friends and therefore I'm confident that also at the G7 and thereafter we can find an a basis for uh the US to be and to continue to be a partner in security issues and we discuss it in NATO and on trade relations. Let's not loo ...