Employment Trends - U.S private sector shed most jobs in two years last month [1]

Bond Market Reaction & Fed Policy - The long end of the curve is considered cheap based on valuation metrics, but the front end could also move if economic data weakens due to a prolonged shutdown [2] - The market is pricing in gradual Fed cuts to neutral, but a worsening economy (unemployment rate above 45%) could lead to more aggressive Fed action [2] - An independent Fed is responding to data and aiming to reduce the level of restrictiveness, making bonds attractive [6] - The Fed is expected to cut rates to 3%, which is close to neutral, even without a significant slowdown [8] Auction & Demand - End-user demand for Treasury auctions remains strong, indicating structural positives in the US economy [5] - Structural positives in the US economy, such as AI capex and strong corporate fundamentals, are driving demand for US bonds [6] - People look at 55%-6% in high-quality bonds and they like it [6] Investment Strategy & Risk Hedge - The 5 to 10-year part of the curve is considered a sweet spot, offering a balance between yield and duration risk [3][14][15] - Bonds are still considered a hedge, especially with the Fed likely to cut rates more aggressively [12][13] - Investors may diversify into other assets like gold and cryptocurrency, but US Treasuries remain a safe haven [9][10][11][12] - High-yield market can offer yields higher than 5%-6% without taking on that much duration risk [15]

China’s factory activity extended its decline into a sixth month, the longest slump since 2019, as the economy descends into a slowdown after a growth spurt to start the year https://t.co/qPpcWfCUVy ...

RT Bloomberg em Português (@BBGEmPortugues)#BrasiliaemOff #Bastidores Uma das principais queixas do Ministério da Fazenda sobre as altas taxas de juros é que elas estão provocando uma desaceleração da economia que vai se refletir sobre a arrecadação.Por @beckmartha https://t.co/oxV0m93eBO ...

Economic Outlook - The OECD projects a less sharp slowdown for the U S and global economies this year than previously anticipated [1] - Economic momentum is expected to further decrease in 2026 [1]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures declined on Monday after a positive performance on Friday, with major indices showing lower futures [1] - The Dow Jones index closed 173 points or 0.37% higher at 46,315.27, while the S&P 500 rose 0.49% to 6,664.36 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.72% to 22,631.48 [6][7] - The S&P 500 gained 1.2% for the week, the Dow added 1%, and the Nasdaq surged 2.2% [4] Key Corporate Developments - President Trump announced that Lachlan Murdoch, Larry Ellison, and Michael Dell will invest in a deal to transfer TikTok's U.S. operations from ByteDance to American ownership [1][2] - Fox Corp. rose 4.20% as Trump considered Murdoch's involvement in the TikTok deal [16] - Oracle Corp. and Dell Technologies also saw stock increases of 0.72% and 1.11% respectively due to their executives' participation in the TikTok transfer [16] Economic Indicators - The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.12%, while the two-year bond was at 3.57% [3] - The CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates a 91.9% likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in its October meeting [3] Sector Performance - Information technology, utilities, and communication services stocks recorded the biggest gains on Friday, while energy and real estate stocks closed lower [4] - Apple Inc. saw a 3.2% increase in stock price due to strong demand for the new iPhone 17, with preorders in China surpassing those of the iPhone 16 in just one minute [5] Housing Market Insights - The latest New Residential Construction report indicated a 3.7% decline in building permits, marking the lowest level since May 2020, and an 8.5% drop in housing starts [10] - This downturn in housing data has prompted discussions about the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut and the need for a more substantial decline in mortgage rates to stimulate the housing market [11]

Core Viewpoint - The mood of British consumers has dampened due to expectations of a slowing economy and potential tax increases later this year, which could lead to a greater downturn [1] Group 1 - Consumer sentiment in the UK is showing signs of decline this month [1] - There are concerns regarding the economic outlook, which is contributing to the negative consumer mood [1] - Potential tax increases later this year are adding to fears of an economic downturn [1]

Core Insights - The total flow of financial resources to the corporate sector increased to ₹35 lakh crore in FY25, reflecting a 3% rise from the previous year, but indicating a shift away from traditional bank credit, which suggests a broader economic slowdown [1][10] Funding Composition - Nearly 49% of the total resources raised, amounting to ₹17.1 lakh crore, came from non-bank channels, including corporate bonds, NBFC loans, equity issuances, and foreign direct investment [2][10] - Demand for bank credit declined by 14% to ₹17.9 lakh crore, highlighting a significant shift in funding sources [10] Equity Market Performance - Non-financial corporates raised ₹3.8 lakh crore through equity in FY25, marking a substantial increase of 188% compared to the previous year, driven by strong equity market performance [2][10] Lending Trends - The slowdown in bank credit may be attributed to cautious lending practices towards NBFCs and unsecured retail segments, as well as a high base effect from FY24 when bank credit surged by 20% [6][10] - NBFCs and financial institutions increased their lending to corporates, disbursing ₹6.1 lakh crore, which is a 20% rise [6][10] - Borrowings through corporate bonds and commercial papers by non-bank entities rose by 15% to ₹2.1 lakh crore [6][10] Internal Funding Sources - The increased use of internal accruals for business expansion has contributed to the decline in bank credit, as profitability among large corporates has improved [8][10] Policy Response - To stimulate credit demand, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has reduced policy rates by 100 basis points since February, following a two-year pause, and ensured ample liquidity in the banking system [9][10]

Core Insights - The total flow of financial resources to the corporate sector increased to Rs 35 lakh crore in FY25, reflecting a 3% rise from the previous year, but indicates a shift away from traditional bank credit [1][5] - Nearly 49% of the total funding, amounting to Rs 17.1 lakh crore, was sourced from non-bank channels, including corporate bonds, NBFC loans, equity issuances, and foreign direct investment [1][5] - Demand for bank credit fell by 14% to Rs 17.9 lakh crore, attributed to strong equity market performance encouraging companies to opt for share issuances over debt [2][5] Funding Composition - Non-financial corporates raised Rs 3.8 lakh crore through equity in FY25, marking a significant 188% increase compared to the previous year [3][5] - Lending from NBFCs and financial institutions to corporates rose by 20%, totaling Rs 6.1 lakh crore [3][5] - Borrowings through corporate bonds and commercial papers by non-bank entities increased by 15% to Rs 2.1 lakh crore [3][5] Economic Context - The decline in bank credit is also linked to larger corporates utilizing internal accruals for business expansion, as noted by RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra [5] - The overall flow of financial resources to the commercial sector has increased when considering non-bank sources, despite the slowdown in bank lending [5] - To stimulate credit demand, the RBI has reduced policy rates by 100 basis points since February and ensured ample liquidity in the banking system [5]

Well, we have been at record highs. Notable today, the 10-year yield near the lowest level since April. So, we're watching all that with the Fed meeting on tap.Will they go 25 or will they go 50. That seems to be the biggest question because the market is convinced nearly 100% you're going to get at least 25. So, Weiss, the question is, what do stocks do.That's question number one for today. JP Morgan's trading desk says this could become a sell the news event. I've heard that from others as well because th ...