A growing group of first-time homebuyers are benefiting from New Zealand’s almost four-year housing downturn that’s made homes more affordable https://t.co/Eonhg8WNGJ ...

Election Analysis - Democratic mayoral victories in Ohio, including a 78% to 22% win in Cincinnati, raise questions about the potential for Democrats to regain ground in the state [1] - The Democratic Party chair sees the election cycle as presenting the most opportunities for Ohio Democrats in 20 years [9] - Ohio has seen Republican dominance but also elected Democrats like Sherrod Brown and legalized abortion access and marijuana, indicating a complex political landscape [10][11] Economic and Social Issues - Cincinnati relieved over $219 million of medical debt for a third of its residents [7] - The city is investing in initiatives like baby bonds and early childhood education [8] - Focus is placed on addressing generational poverty and violence through public safety measures [13] - Efforts are being made to balance equities in eviction court, especially with federal cuts to SNAP benefits and Medicaid [19] Business and Development - Ohio's economy is seen as dependent on the success of its cities in attracting and growing businesses [17] - Cincinnati is experiencing population growth and reforming zoning to encourage housing and business development [17] - Cincinnati has the largest city-led solar farm in the country, leading to carbon-neutral city buildings [17]

RT towelie (@towelie719)even looking at the correlation (r=0.91) between immigrants and housing affordability, they follow the same patterns. if they artificially increase the population, especially unchecked like it is, then demand goes up, causing house prices to go up. same thing with insurance and healthcare cost. we cannot have an inventory of houses, nor insurance and healthcare to meet the growing ARTIFICAL GROWTH of our population without the increase in demand causing unaffordabilityhttps://t.co/3L ...

Housing Affordability & Debt - 50-year mortgage aims to make homes more "affordable" for young people without lowering asset prices for boomers [1] - Housing constitutes 60% of the average American's portfolio, making it politically sensitive [1] - More homes could lead to lost elections, resulting in increased debt [1] Mortgage Analysis - A $500k mortgage over 30 years would cost ~$3,160/month, while a 50-year mortgage would cost ~$2,793/month [1] - The 50-year mortgage offers only an 11% reduction in the monthly payment [2] - The 50-year mortgage results in an additional $538.2 thousand in interest [2]

Economic Overview - The current economic landscape shows signs of a quiet renegotiation rather than a crash, with companies adapting to changing consumer behaviors and economic pressures [3] Housing Market - D.R. Horton is utilizing mortgage rate buydowns to maintain sales in a challenging housing market, with nearly 75% of buyers opting for discounted rates around 3.99%, leading to a gross margin drop to 20% [4] Banking Sector - TD Bank is closing 51 branches as part of a strategy to reduce its physical footprint by about 10%, focusing on digital services while maintaining over 1,000 branches [6] Restaurant Industry - Bloomin' Brands has closed 10 Outback Steakhouse locations across eight states due to rising costs and cautious consumer spending, with the company attempting to relocate affected workers [7] Technology and AI - Investor Michael Burry is shorting shares of Nvidia and Palantir, raising concerns about a potential bubble in AI stocks, despite significant gains of over 50% for Nvidia and over 100% for Palantir this year [8] Fast Food Sector - McDonald's reported a nearly double-digit decline in traffic from lower-income customers, prompting the company to introduce value deals to attract this demographic [9] Streaming Services - YouTube TV is offering a $10 monthly credit for six months to select users after dropping Disney channels, but the credit is not automatically applied, leading to customer frustration [10] Aviation Industry - Beta Technologies, an electric aircraft manufacturer, went public with an IPO priced at $34 per share, raising over $1 billion and achieving a valuation of approximately $7.4 billion [11][12] Education Technology - Duolingo's third-quarter results showed a 36% increase in daily active users and a 41% rise in revenue, yet the stock fell 25% due to expectations of slower growth in future bookings [13] Airline Industry - Major airlines, including United, American, and Delta, are offering refunds during the government shutdown, which has led to a 10% reduction in flights at major airports [14]

RT The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter)US housing affordability has never been worse:The US home price-to-income ratio is now up to a record 4.4x.This means the average single-family home now costs over 4 TIMES what the median household earns.This has even surpassed the 2006 Housing Bubble peak of 4.1x.The ratio has risen by +1.2 points, or +38% since 2011.During this period, home prices have surged +139% while median household income has increased +68%.Housing affordability is horrible at best. ...

Core Insights - San Francisco housing costs have returned to "normal" levels, but this normality does not equate to affordability for most middle-class homebuyers [1][3] Housing Market Analysis - Redfin's baseline for "normal" housing prices is based on the U.S. housing market in July 2018, when the average home in San Francisco was valued at approximately $1.3 million [2][4] - The surge in Big Tech wealth has historically driven San Francisco real estate prices significantly higher, making homeownership increasingly unattainable for the middle class [3][6] Interest Rates and Affordability - In July 2018, interest rates were around 4%, and the nationwide median monthly mortgage payment-to-income ratio was about 30%, indicating a more manageable housing market [4][5] - The mortgage payment-to-income ratio in San Francisco was over 74% in July 2018, but it has improved to 67% seven years later due to a slowdown in home prices and rising incomes [6]

Core Insights - U.S. existing home sales reached a seven-month high in September, driven primarily by higher-income households benefiting from stock market gains [1][4] - Despite a decline in mortgage rates to one-year lows, affordability remains a significant challenge for lower and middle-income buyers, compounded by economic uncertainty and a stagnant labor market [2][7] Sales Performance - Home sales increased by 1.5% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million units, the highest since February, with a year-over-year increase of 4.1% [4][5] - Sales of homes priced at $1 million and above surged by 20.2% year-over-year, while homes in the $750,000-$1 million range rose by 14.4%. In contrast, sales in the $100,000-$250,000 range only increased by 6.0% [8] Economic Outlook - Economists predict that existing home sales will stabilize through the end of this year and into early next year, with improvements expected in 2026 as mortgage rates decline further and the economy strengthens [3] - The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is currently at 6.19%, down from 7.04% in January, but this has not significantly boosted demand for home purchase loans, as many homeowners are refinancing instead [6][7] Market Context - Housing contributes less than 5% to the U.S. economy, and recent reports indicate little change in economic activity, with muted demand for labor [9]

Core Insights - U.S. existing home sales reached a seven-month high in September, increasing by 1.5% to an annual rate of 4.06 million units, the highest since February [1][2] - The increase in home sales is attributed to falling mortgage rates and improving housing affordability, despite rising economic uncertainty and a stalled labor market [2][3] Sales Performance - Home sales rose 4.1% year-over-year, with increases noted in the Northeast, South, and West regions, while the Midwest experienced a decline [2] - The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is at a one-year low of 6.27%, down from 7.04% in January, contributing to the rise in sales [2] Economic Context - A government shutdown has delayed the release of official economic data, including the employment report for September, leading to concerns about muted hiring due to economic uncertainty [3] - The shutdown has also affected real estate transactions, particularly in flood-prone areas where necessary insurance is unavailable [4] Inventory and Pricing - The inventory of existing homes increased by 14.0% year-over-year to 1.550 million units, although it remains below pre-pandemic levels [4] - The median existing home price rose by 2.1% year-over-year to $415,200, with current inventory expected to last 4.6 months at the September sales pace [5] Market Dynamics - Properties stayed on the market for an average of 33 days, up from 28 days a year ago, indicating a slight slowdown in sales velocity [6] - First-time buyers represented 30% of sales, an increase from 26% a year ago, though a 40% share is considered necessary for a robust housing market [6]

Core Insights - Sales of previously owned homes increased by 1.5% in September compared to August, reaching a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.06 million units, marking the highest pace in seven months despite being slightly below analyst forecasts [1] - Year-over-year, sales were up 4.1% compared to September of the previous year [1] Regional Performance - On an annual basis, sales were strongest in the South and Northeast regions, while the West saw the highest monthly sales increase from August, and the Midwest experienced a slight decline [2] - The average mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed loan decreased from 6.67% in early July to 6.17% by the end of September, contributing to the sales increase [2] Market Dynamics - Falling mortgage rates are positively impacting home sales, with improved housing affordability also playing a role in the sales increase, according to the chief economist of the National Association of Realtors [3] - Inventory of homes for sale rose by 14% year-over-year to 1.55 million units at the end of September, although this remains historically low [3] - At the current sales pace, there is a 4.6-month supply of homes available, with a balanced market typically considered to have a six-month supply [3]