Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - AGNC reported comprehensive income of $0.78 per common share for Q3 2025, with an economic return on tangible common equity of 10.6%, consisting of $0.36 in dividends and a $0.47 increase in tangible net book value per share [13] - The company ended the quarter with leverage of 7.6 times tangible equity, unchanged from the prior quarter, and maintained a strong liquidity position with $7.2 billion in cash and unencumbered agency MBS, representing 66% of tangible equity [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net spread and dollar roll income declined to $0.35 per common share, driven by lower swap income due to the maturity of $4 billion of legacy swaps and a timing mismatch in capital deployment [14] - The average projected life CPR of the portfolio increased to 8.6% from 7.8% in the prior quarter, while actual CPRs averaged 8.3% compared to 8.7% previously [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The demand for agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) increased significantly, with bond fund inflows reaching $180 billion in Q3, slightly ahead of last year's pace [9] - The supply of agency MBS is expected to be about $200 billion this year, at the lower end of initial expectations, while demand outlook has improved, particularly from the money manager community [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - AGNC is positioned to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns as the largest pure play levered agency investment vehicle, focusing on optimizing asset composition and maintaining a favorable hedge ratio [12] - The company is actively rotating into pools with favorable prepayment characteristics and has added $7 billion of receiver swaptions for down rate protection [19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed a constructive outlook for agency MBS, citing improved spread environments, balanced supply and demand dynamics, and favorable financing markets [6][10] - The company anticipates that lower funding costs from recent rate cuts and a shift in hedge mix will provide a moderate tailwind to net spread and dollar roll income [15] Other Important Information - The Treasury Department is focusing on mortgage spreads to improve housing affordability, which is seen as beneficial for agency MBS and AGNC's business [7] - The company issued $345 million of fixed-rate preferred equity, the largest mortgage REIT preferred stock offering since 2021, and $39 million of common equity at a significant premium to tangible net book value [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Discussion on expected ROEs and dividend sustainability - Management indicated that current coupon mortgages are expected to yield ROEs between 16-18%, aligning with total cost of capital, and that dividend sustainability remains strong despite recent spread tightening [21][23] Question: Insights on hedge ratio changes - The hedge ratio decreased due to a higher proportion of short-term debt, but management expects benefits from anticipated Fed rate cuts, which will lower funding costs over time [26][29] Question: Demand for MBS from money managers - Management noted robust bond fund inflows and anticipated continued strong demand for agency MBS, particularly as banks may increase their mortgage holdings following regulatory reforms [38][39] Question: Impact of Fed easing on net spread - Management expects a near-term tailwind to net spread income due to the deployment of capital and the anticipated easing of short-term rates [42][45] Question: Risks to the constructive view on spreads - The primary risks identified include macroeconomic factors that could lead to inflationary pressures, which may affect the Fed's monetary policy and, consequently, the agency MBS market [85][86]

Summary of CEE Economics Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the macroeconomic trends and outlook for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), specifically highlighting the economic conditions in Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic [1][2][3]. Key Points Poland - **Economic Activity**: There is a low probability of recession in Poland, with nowcasting models indicating an acceleration in GDP growth for Q3 [21][24]. - **Labour Market**: Despite economic recovery, employment is declining, particularly affecting young workers, although the overall jobless rate remains stable [25][28]. - **Monetary Policy**: Inflation has decreased below 3% due to a slowdown in utility prices and moderation in core inflation, with markets anticipating further rate cuts [32][34]. - **Fiscal Policy**: The Ministry of Finance expects a significant increase in public debt, with a slower narrowing of the fiscal deficit than previously anticipated. Heavy issuance of POLGBs is expected in Q4 [36][40]. Hungary - **Economic Activity**: No significant rebound in industrial output is observed, with recession risk indicators remaining high, although some improvement was noted in September [48][50]. - **Labour Market**: Average wages have slowed to 9% YoY, with public sector wages rising faster at 10%. The share of sectors with double-digit growth has decreased [54][56]. - **Inflation Outlook**: Headline inflation remained unchanged at 4.3% in September, with core inflation gaining momentum and nearly 60% of the core inflation basket growing at a double-digit annualized pace [60][64][66]. - **Monetary Policy**: The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) is expected to maintain cautious rates in Q4, with a narrow window for potential cuts in early 2026 [70][73]. Czech Republic - **Economic Activity**: Low and falling recession risks are indicated, with stable production of capital goods despite weak growth in Germany. Retail growth is solid, supported by positive real wage growth [81][85]. - **Inflation and Monetary Policy**: Headline inflation has slowed, but core inflation remains elevated, prompting the Czech National Bank (CNB) to signal a prolonged period of rate stability [87][88]. - **Fiscal Policy**: An expected issuance of around CZK 210 billion in Czech T-Bonds for 2025, with strategies to manage bond maturities in 2026 [90][93]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the interconnectedness of macroeconomic indicators across the CEE region, highlighting the importance of monitoring inflation, employment trends, and fiscal policies as they can significantly impact investment opportunities and risks in the region [1][2][36][70].

According to Goldman Sachs, consumers are shouldering 55% of the cost of Trump's tariffs this year. 55% shouldered by the consumer. EJ Antony joining us here to he's in New York today.You know, EJ, they're shouldering 55% of the cost of tariffs. That's according to Goldman Sachs. That sounds inflationary to me.>> Well, it certainly does at first, but if we actually read the report, it's it's pointing to next year. And the other thing to remember is that uh these different predictions, not just from Goldman ...

Market Overview - Wall Street experienced a decline from record highs due to renewed tariff threats from President Trump against China, impacting investor sentiment and leading to a selloff in export-sensitive and financial stocks [2] - Concerns regarding regional bank credit, particularly bad loans reported by Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp, contributed to the market downturn [2][10] - The Federal Reserve faced pressure as Trump's rhetoric towards Chair Jerome Powell raised concerns about political interference in monetary policy, while uncertainty over the U.S. government shutdown affected economic outlooks [3] Bullish Stocks - Stellantis N.V. announced a $13 billion investment over four years to expand its U.S. manufacturing footprint by 50%, which resulted in a surge in its stock price [5] - Papa John's International shares rose following a new takeover offer from Apollo Global Management at $64 per share, although the deal's completion remains uncertain [6] - Oklo Inc. saw its stock soar nearly 700% year-to-date as it aims to deploy micro-nuclear reactors for U.S. military bases under the Pentagon's Project Janus initiative, despite facing regulatory challenges and having no commercial revenue [7] Bearish Stocks - U.S. semiconductor stocks, including NVIDIA, Micron, and Intel, fell sharply due to escalating trade tensions with China, exacerbated by Micron's exit from China's data center market following a ban on its products [8] - Shares of Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, and Hims & Hers Health declined after President Trump indicated that prices for "fat-loss drugs" would decrease significantly, leading to a selloff in GLP-1 therapy manufacturers [9] - Regional bank stocks, particularly Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp, experienced their worst drop since April, with Zions disclosing a $60 million provision for troubled loans and Western Alliance facing a lawsuit for alleged fraud [10][11]

By Michael S. Derby (Reuters) -Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem suggested Friday he will support a central bank interest rate cut at the end of the month, while warning it's important for the Fed not to go too far with easing the cost of credit amid still unsettled inflation risks. Responding to a question about lowering rates at the next Fed meeting, the official said “I could support a path with an additional reduction in the policy rate if there are further risks to the labo ...

Core Insights - Global financial markets are facing challenges due to geopolitical tensions, mixed central bank signals, and persistent inflationary pressures as of October 17, 2025 [2] Central Bank Divergence and Inflation Concerns - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller supports a 25-basis-point interest rate cut at the upcoming October FOMC meeting, citing labor market concerns, while Governor Stephen Miran advocates for a more aggressive 50-basis-point reduction, highlighting internal debates within the Fed [3][4] - The Bank of England warns that UK inflation may remain elevated beyond current expectations, despite the FTSE 100 finishing higher [4] Geopolitical Tensions and Energy Markets - Crude oil prices are experiencing significant declines, trading around $66.24 per barrel for Brent and $63.43 per barrel for WTI, influenced by the upcoming Trump-Putin meeting and ongoing conflict in Ukraine [5][6] - The European Union proposes defense initiatives, including a "drone wall" and "Eastern Flank Watch," to counter drone threats from Russia, with operational capacity targeted for 2027-2028 [7] Global Equities and Economic Indicators - Global equity markets show mixed signals, with Asian equities expected to open lower due to U.S. credit fears, overshadowing earlier optimism in the AI and tech sectors [9] - Despite broader economic slowdowns, the FTSE 100 managed to finish higher, while AppLovin's target price was increased to $860 from $580 by BofA Securities, forecasting $3 billion in e-commerce net revenue for 2026 [10] - S&P Global estimates global tariff costs will reach $1.2 trillion in 2025, with two-thirds of the burden expected to fall on consumers, indicating persistent inflationary risks [11] Currency and Commodity Movements - Gold prices have surged to new all-time highs, trading above $4,350, driven by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of further Fed rate cuts [13]

says that's because investors are paying attention to different things in DC. Fiscal and monetary policy, which I think Dan Clifton, uh, head of policy research at Strategus, uh, research, which is a bar company. Both of those are are going to be positive, I think, at least, um, for GDP, aren't they, Dan.There's there's some serious uh, scratch coming our way in the economy from these things. Absolutely, Joe. Great to see you.I mean, there's a lot of noise here from Washington, and there are some real risks ...

Economic Uncertainty & Policy - Uncertainty over policy, including potential tax hikes and global trading policy rearrangements, contributed to a weaker labor market in the first half of the year [1][2][3] - China's reneging on earlier trade deals introduces a new tail risk, potentially increasing downside risks to growth [3][4] - The balance of risks has shifted, necessitating policymakers to consider the implications for policy [5][6] Monetary Policy & Neutral Rate - Urgency to move to a more neutral policy stance quickly, as current policy is considered restrictive and vulnerable to shocks [7][8] - The speaker's view on the pace of reaching a neutral rate is somewhat out of consensus, advocating for a quicker move due to less concern about upside inflation [9][10] - Neutral policy rate is the rate at which monetary policy is neither restrictive nor accommodative, but it's difficult to observe directly and models provide wide confidence bands [11][12] - Significant shocks to the economy in recent years, such as changes in immigration policy, have likely caused substantial shifts in the neutral rate [13][14][15] Economic Indicators & Market Reaction - The economy was weaker in the first half of the year, potentially related to trade and uncertainty around trade and taxes [17][18] - The housing market is moribund due to high mortgage rates, representing a significant transmission channel for monetary policy [19] - Bond market reaction to rate cuts differs this year compared to last year, with long yields slightly down by 4-5 basis points in the 18 trading sessions since the cut, contrasting with a 30 basis points increase in the same period last year [22]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses global economic conditions, focusing on the implications of political events and economic indicators across various regions including the US, Europe, and Asia. Key Economic Insights 1. **US Government Shutdown**: - The US government shutdown has extended into its second week, delaying federal economic data releases, which is expected to reduce Q4 annualized GDP growth by 0.11 percentage points per week of shutdown [3][4][5] - Alternative labor market data indicates a rebound in job growth to 80,000 per month in September from around 0 in May [5] 2. **Global PMIs**: - The global composite PMI fell by 0.5 points in September to 52.9, with declines in both manufacturing and services sectors [3] - US manufacturing suppliers' delivery times increased as the rush to frontload ahead of tariff implementation subsided [3] 3. **Political Uncertainty in Europe**: - Renewed political uncertainty in France following the resignation of Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu, with expectations of growth running below trend and an increase in the government deficit forecast to 5.3% of GDP for 2026 [5][6] - The upcoming Canada and UK Budgets are anticipated to focus on fiscal consolidation and investment [3] 4. **Inflation Outlook**: - Inflation in the Euro area is expected to normalize, with core inflation projected to remain around 2% in the coming years [6] - Headline inflation is forecasted to reach 2.0% by the end of 2025, with a slight increase in food inflation [6] 5. **Japan's Political Landscape**: - Sanae Takaichi was elected as the leader of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party, but significant fiscal policy changes are not anticipated in the near term [6] - The next Bank of Japan rate hike is expected in January 2026 [6] 6. **Central Bank Actions in Asia**: - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered its policy rate by 50 basis points to 2.5%, with further cuts expected [6] - The Philippines central bank also surprised with a dovish rate cut, while the Bank of Thailand held its rate steady [6] Economic Growth Forecasts - **Real GDP Growth Projections**: - US: 2.8% in 2024, 1.9% in 2025, 1.8% in 2026 [7] - Euro Area: 0.8% in 2024, 1.3% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026 [7] - China: 5.0% in 2024, 4.8% in 2025, 4.2% in 2026 [7] - India: 6.7% in 2024, 7.1% in 2025, 6.4% in 2026 [7] Additional Insights - The military pay date on October 15 could be a critical event for resolving the US government shutdown [5] - Concerns regarding the implementation of Germany's fiscal package, particularly in infrastructure spending, are noted, but optimism remains regarding defense spending's growth impact [5][6] This summary encapsulates the essential points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the economic conditions, forecasts, and political factors influencing the global economy.

Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - Jerome Powell adopted a more dovish tone on monetary policy, indicating potential easing of interest rates, which initially calmed investor nerves [1][5] - The Federal Reserve is currently using federal reserve bank and private data to monitor the economy due to the absence of government data, resulting in an unchanged outlook for inflation and employment [2] - Concerns are rising that the Fed's dual mandate of maintaining 2% inflation and stable employment may conflict, as inflation pressures may necessitate higher rates while slowing job growth may require lower rates [3][4] Employment and Inflation Dynamics - Powell noted a weakening in the employment sector, with payroll gains slowing and risks to employment increasing, despite a low unemployment rate [4] - Inflation remains sticky at around 3%, but longer-term expectations align with the Fed's 2% goal, suggesting a willingness to overlook short-term tariff-related inflation [4] Market Reactions and Investor Sentiment - Following Powell's comments, the likelihood of a 25 basis points cut in the Fed's October meeting rose to nearly 96% [5] - Market volatility increased due to renewed tensions between the U.S. and China, particularly regarding soybean trade, which has affected investor sentiment [6][8] Global Market Performance - Mixed market performance was observed, with S&P 500 futures up 0.59% in early trading, while the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.76% [7][10] - European markets showed slight gains, with Germany's DAX up 0.23% and the Euro STOXX 50 up 1.45% [7][10] Trade Relations with China - President Trump's comments on China's soybean purchases and potential trade retribution have raised concerns about U.S.-China relations, contrasting with previous hopes for a trade deal [9]