Liquidity & Monetary Policy - End of Quantitative Tightening (QT), industry anticipates the timing of Quantitative Easing (QE) [1] - Discussion of the current REPO crisis and its implications [1] - Examination of liquidity issues and associated risks for banks [1] - Addressing misinformation surrounding Quantitative Easing (QE) [1] Market Impact - Analysis of the implications for Bitcoin (BTC) and stocks [1]

Core Insights - Mortgage rates are currently at their lowest in a year at 6.19%, but have remained above 6% for the past three years, causing frustration among potential homebuyers [1] - The Federal Reserve's actions, particularly regarding its balance sheet, significantly influence mortgage rates, even though it does not set them directly [1][5] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's new target for the benchmark Federal Funds Rate is set between 3.75% and 4.00% effective October 29 [2] - The Fed has implemented its second quarter-point interest rate cut of 2025 to balance its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment [3] - The Fed's total assets are approximately $6.59 trillion, representing about 22% of U.S. nominal GDP as of October 22 [4] Group 2: Quantitative Tightening and Easing - During Quantitative Tightening (QT), the Fed reduces its balance sheet by selling or allowing bonds to mature, which removes money from the system [7] - Conversely, during Quantitative Easing (QE), the Fed buys bonds and mortgage-backed securities to inject money into the economy, typically lowering long-term rates [7] - The Fed has been a net seller of Treasuries since 2022, which has pressured rates higher and elevated borrowing costs, including mortgages [8]

Core Insights - Popular market analyst Ted Pillows discusses the future of altcoins in light of the Federal Reserve's plans to end its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program [1][2] - The Fed intends to suspend QT runoff by December 1, 2025, which involves reinvesting proceeds from maturing mortgage-backed securities into Treasury bills [2][3] Market Impact - Historical data shows that a similar move by the Fed in October 2019 led to a 42% decline in the altcoin market cap in the subsequent months [3][4] - The altcoin market remained at low levels until March 2020, when Quantitative Easing (QE) was introduced, providing relief for altcoins [4] Liquidity Needs - Ted Pillows emphasizes that the altcoin market requires liquidity, which can be achieved through either the Fed starting QE or the Treasury releasing TGA liquidity into the economy [5] - The likelihood of the Fed initiating QE in the near term is considered low, and the TGA option is dependent on the suspension of the US government shutdown that began on October 1, 2025 [5][6] Market Outlook - The current market outlook suggests potential underperformance in the crypto market for some time [6]

Market Outlook - Short-term market volatility is expected, potentially impacting leveraged traders [1][2] - Anticipate significant upside potential towards the end of the year and into Q1, contingent on the resumption of data releases following the shutdown [2] - The market is expected to be choppy in the coming weeks [2] Monetary Policy - Quantitative Tightening (QT) is projected to end on December 1st, signaling a potential return to quantitative easing [1][2] - A rate cut in December is not guaranteed and depends on the availability of economic data [1] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling off, which could be bullish for future rate cuts [2] Investment Strategy - Buy dips in the market [3] - Hold investments until mid next year, specifically when signals indicate the end of rate cuts [3]

Market Trends & Investment Opportunities - The debasement trade, where scarce assets like Bitcoin and gold appreciate against depreciating fiat currencies, is becoming mainstream as institutions recognize it [1][3] - Investors should own assets that will appreciate in value as the prices of goods are inflating [8] - Gold has seen a spike due to central bank buying as they seek assets that cannot be debased [14] - Bitcoin benefits from liquidity as cheaper dollars require more of them to buy Bitcoin [18] - Bitcoin is entering a tremendous institutional adoption phase and is viewed as digital gold [21] Macroeconomic Factors & Risks - The US is running over $2 trillion deficits annually, with debt exploding to over $38 trillion this year [4] - The US faces a debt spiral with three choices: cutting spending, raising taxes, or defaulting (hard or soft) [6][7][8] - The Fed is lowering rates into a period of structural inflation, fearing a recession and potential explosion of deficits to $3-4 trillion [8] - Credit agencies have downgraded US debt, indicating structural problems [8] - The market is concerned that the Fed will have to stop QT (Quantitative Tightening) and eventually start QE (Quantitative Easing) due to decreasing bank reserves [8][9] Bitcoin Outlook - Bitcoin is expected to outperform gold in the future and take market share away from it [22] - Bitcoin could fall with a market drawdown, as it is still treated as a risk asset [27] - Bitcoin is expected to snap back strongly after a market drawdown, especially with an injection of liquidity [29] - In the next 5-7 years, Bitcoin could reach $1 million, with higher prices depending on the rate of currency debasement and institutional adoption [39]

Monetary Policy & Liquidity - The market anticipates a 25bps (0.25%) rate cut by the FOMC, but this is already factored into prices [1] - The end of Quantitative Tightening (QT) does not equate to the start of Quantitative Easing (QE), implying continued tight monetary conditions [1] - Liquidity is diminishing, and despite calls for new liquidity injections, the FED is unlikely to initiate QE soon, given inflation is 50% above the target, unless a major crisis occurs [1] - The FED has historically only printed money during crises, and a crisis is currently brewing in the REPO market [2] - Repo facilities are strained, overnight funding is collapsing, and liquidity stress is spreading throughout the system, indicating a very low amount of available cash [2] Market Outlook - The author maintains a short position on BTC and Stocks, expecting no sustainable strength [1][2] - The author's short orders for BTC are stacked between 116,700–117,200, primarily in USDT [2] - The expectation is that euphoria will fade, liquidity will vanish, and the system will crack, prompting the Fed to print again [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses the upcoming decision regarding the next Federal Reserve chair, with expectations for an announcement in December [3][4][16] - There is speculation about the candidates and their potential policy differences, particularly regarding inflation and the operational framework of the Fed [4][5][6] Candidate Selection Process - Besson plans to conduct further interviews, potentially leading to leaks about preferred candidates, with a decision expected after Thanksgiving [2] - The president is believed to have a preferred candidate in mind, which may expedite the selection process [2][3] Policy Perspectives - Most candidates are described as hawkish, with a consensus on fighting inflation, but there are differing views on the Fed's operational systems and powers [4][5][7] - Some candidates advocate for a return to the corridor system from the current floor system, which would represent a significant shift in Fed operations [5][6] Decision-Making Dynamics - The chair's diplomatic skills are crucial in navigating discussions among Fed governors, aiming for consensus on policy decisions [9][10] - The current environment is characterized by a divided Fed, which may influence the incoming chair's approach to policy [8][10] Historical Context - The article notes that the current selection process is unusual compared to past appointments, which typically did not involve extensive public speculation [11][12] - Previous Fed chairs were often chosen based on their qualifications and political alignment, with less emphasis on public perception [12][13]

Market Trend Analysis - Market is filtering panic sellers before the next parabolic phase starts, similar to previous altseasons [1] - Bull trend is intact, anticipating a parabolic pump in the next 4-6 months [1] Bullish Factors - Gold hits $30 Trillion, historically leading to capital flow into Bitcoin after stabilization [1] - M2 money supply is exploding [3] - The FED will end Quantitative Tightening (QT) and potentially begin Quantitative Easing (QE) [3] - Expecting 3-4 rate cuts in the next 6 months [3] - US stocks are hitting new highs [3] - Anticipating crypto-friendly regulations from the US Government [3] - 155 altcoin ETFs filings are expected to be approved after shutdown ends [3] Sentiment - Trust the Data, Ignore the Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD) [2]

Core Insights - The upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is critical for market movements, particularly regarding potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and overall investor sentiment [1][3][6] - A softer CPI reading could lead to a 25-50 basis point rate cut, which may boost Bitcoin prices towards $113,000-$114,000, while a hotter reading could delay cuts and dampen market momentum [7][6] Market Reactions - Global markets are experiencing cautious optimism, with crypto, stocks, and ETFs climbing as traders anticipate a softer inflation print [2][6] - Bitcoin has surpassed $111,000, driven by easing U.S.-China trade tensions and a broader risk appetite [2] ETF and Crypto Trends - U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.23 billion in outflows last week, while global crypto ETF inflows reached $5.95 billion, marking the strongest inflow this quarter [4] - Ethereum and Solana have gained between 3-5% amid growing confidence in an easing monetary cycle [4] Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve is hinting at a potential return to quantitative easing (QE), which could flood the financial system with liquidity once the government reopens [5][8] - Historically, monetary easing has correlated with digital asset rallies, suggesting a bullish outlook for the crypto market if QE resumes [9] Sentiment Indicators - The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has increased to 27, indicating cautious optimism among traders, though it remains far from euphoria [10]

Economic Policy and Central Banks - The Fed needs to consider reforms, particularly regarding quantitative easing (QE), which has not been stimulative and has contributed to wealth inequality [1][2] - There is a call for the Fed to allow more market functionality and to be open to changes, especially concerning stable coins and short-term markets [1][2] - The current high capital gains tax in the US is seen as detrimental to market dynamism, and lowering it could lead to increased investment and growth [1][2][3] Taxation and Growth - Tax cuts are advocated for both the US and Japan to stimulate growth, with Japan's high marginal tax rate of 45% being a concern [1][2] - The idea of a temporary capital gains tax holiday is proposed, suggesting it could lead to a windfall for the government and potentially be extended if successful [2][3] - The impact of tax policies on market behavior is highlighted, with lower tax rates leading to increased equity values as they reflect growth opportunities [2][3] Interest Rates and National Debt - The current short-term interest rates set by the Fed at 4.15% are considered too high, especially in relation to long-term rates, indicating the Fed is behind the curve [3][4] - There is a concern that the national debt is too large, which could affect the demand for dollars, but recent trends show a preference for US assets as gold prices decline [3][4] - A suggestion for a 50 basis point cut in interest rates is made, arguing that the Fed should have started cutting earlier to align with market conditions [4][5]