Market Sentiment - The negativity in the market is largely attributed to Oracle's performance, with Nasdaq futures down more than 80 points [1] - There is a growing disappointment regarding the Federal Reserve's policies, which may be overshadowing the Oracle narrative [2][4] Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - The Fed's recent actions, including buying Treasury bills, are generally seen as positive for financial assets, but the market reaction has been more negative [3] - Investors are concerned about the lack of certainty regarding future policies, leading to a cautious approach as liquidity decreases towards year-end [4] Future Market Outlook - Despite current market challenges, there is a belief that stock markets will rise significantly by 2026 due to resilient growth and supportive fiscal policies [6][7] - The upcoming events, including central bank meetings, are expected to influence market focus, with particular attention on the ECB, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan [9][10]

分组1 - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a new range of 3.5% to 3.75%, indicating a potential pause in further cuts for the time being [1][3] - The Fed's balance sheet policy is more aggressive than anticipated, with plans to begin buying securities on December 12, totaling $40 billion for several months, focusing on bills and potentially up to three-year maturities [5][11] - The Fed's decision reflects a response to liquidity tightness in the financial system, particularly in the repo market, suggesting that reserves had been reduced too much relative to market needs [12][13] 分组2 - The voting results showed a split among Fed officials, with nine in favor of the rate cut, two against, and one supporting a larger cut of 50 basis points, marking the first instance of three dissents since 2019 [4] - Fed Chair Jay Powell emphasized that the current measures should not be classified as quantitative easing, but rather as maintaining liquidity and managing reserves [6][9] - Market reactions indicate a 24% probability of another rate cut in January, increasing to 44% in March, suggesting growing confidence in future cuts as the year progresses [3]

Today, the Fed officially opened the floodgates. Now, we have a lot to talk about. Specifically, we are going to go over exactly what I mean by that statement, and we're also going to go over the time frame in which we should be expecting this to affect the market in a very positive way.Now, right off the rip, I do want to start off by looking at the market cap of crypto. So far we have been hovering just above $3 trillion currently at about $3.15% trillion. Fear and greed back to about roughly 30.This has ...

Group 1 - The meeting was characterized by a focus on being "well positioned," suggesting a cautious but stable outlook from the Fed [1][2][5] - The Fed Chair expressed skepticism about the accuracy of monthly job gains, indicating a potential overstatement of 60,000 jobs, which could imply a more negative job report [2][6] - Inflationary risks were deemphasized, with the Fed Chair framing inflation as less of a concern and highlighting progress made in controlling it [3][4][5] Group 2 - The Fed has cut rates by 175 basis points since September, yet the 2-year Treasury yield remains unchanged, indicating a disconnect between Fed actions and market responses [6][8] - Despite the rate cuts, long-term interest rates, such as the 30-year Treasury, have increased by approximately 75 basis points, suggesting that lower Fed rates may not be beneficial for long-term rates [8][9] - The yield curve steepened following the Fed's cut, with the difference between 2-year and 30-year rates reaching about 124 basis points, indicating potential future increases in long-term interest rates [10]

Let's talk more about that now with Jeff Kilberg. He's the founder and CEO of KKM Financial. What do you say, sir.Welcome. >> Well, Kelly, kind of a surprise. Everyone was looking for a cut in rates, but more hawkish, and we actually got more.If you think about that 40 billion that going to start purchasing in just a couple days, that's annualized half a trillion dollars of new QE. So, with a $6.5% trillion balance sheet, I think a lot of folks were surprised. That was the initial reaction, equities, but yo ...

This isn’t QE lol.Ending QT doesn’t mean QE starts, the Fed can just pause and sit neutral.QE is when they buy long-duration assets in size, usually trillions, to push down long-term rates.Right now rates are still high and markets are near ATHs.The last times QE began, rates were at or near 0% and markets were cooked.Mike Alfred (@mikealfred):BREAKING: The Fed will begin buying $40B of short term bills starting December 12. QE is back. ...

分组1 - The discussion centers around differing expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with one analyst anticipating a hawkish stance while the other leans towards a dovish outlook [1][4] - The market has been preparing for a potential hawkish cut, with clients expecting uncertainty regarding future cuts, possibly not occurring until June [2][3] - A dovish cut could also be interpreted positively if the Fed indicates a willingness to consider more rate cuts in the future [3][4] 分组2 - The current market conditions show that indices are near all-time highs, which may mitigate the perceived risks associated with a hawkish Fed [6][7] - The market has adjusted to the Fed's slightly hawkish institutional stance, which may be influenced by external pressures [7][8] - The Fed's approach to quantitative easing (QE) is crucial, as it involves buying Treasury notes and mortgage-backed securities, which lowers long-term rates and influences equity prices [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is likely to implement a quarter-point rate cut amid discussions of potential candidates for the next Fed chair, with current chair Jay Powell's influence somewhat diminished due to speculation surrounding his successor [2][4]. Group 1: Rate Cut Discussion - There is a push for a half-point rate cut, but rising bond yields suggest that a quarter-point cut is more probable [1][2]. - Some Fed bank presidents may dissent against the rate cut, indicating a divided opinion within the committee [2]. Group 2: Speculation on Fed Chair Successor - Speculation regarding Powell's successor is influencing the dynamics of the upcoming Fed meeting, potentially reducing Powell's clout [4]. - Candidates like Kevin Hasset and Scott Besson are mentioned, with Hasset being favored but not without opposition from some in the bond market [5][6]. Group 3: Balance Sheet and Monetary Policy - The Fed is expected to end its period of quantitative tightening (QT) and begin expanding its balance sheet again, although not at the scale of previous quantitative easing (QE) measures [9]. - The balance sheet expansion is anticipated to align with economic growth and currency supply, rather than a significant increase relative to GDP [9][11]. - The current regime of managing ample reserves is similar to practices of other central banks globally, and concerns about the Fed's large balance sheet are considered overstated [11][12].

Fed’s Lagging Balance Sheet: The Hidden Risks of Post-QE Tightening. Photo by BeInCrypto Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead. Grab a coffee as global markets enter a period of unprecedented friction with the era of synchronized economic cycles coming to an end. While the US quietly restores liquidity, China remains locked in a state of deflation, and Japan’s rising bond yields threaten to destabilize global ca ...

Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) is perceived to be over, which is expected to provide a tailwind for the market [1][2] - Anticipation of rate cuts in the near future is expected to drive market performance in the first half of the year [2][3] Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - Consumer spending remains strong, as evidenced by Black Friday sales, contradicting negative predictions from Wall Street [4][6] - Household net worth is at an all-time high, creating a virtuous cycle where increased net worth boosts market performance and vice versa [6][7] Investment Opportunities - There is optimism for a year-end rally, with potential for a 3-4% increase in the market before the year's end [9][10] - Specific stocks such as Amazon and Palo Alto Networks are highlighted as strong investment opportunities due to their growth potential and strategic partnerships [12][13][14] Market Trends and Predictions - The market has shown resilience, bouncing back after recent downturns, and there is a belief that breaking new highs could trigger further rallies [9][10] - The current growth cycle is expected to continue for at least nine more months, suggesting a favorable environment for equities [11]