[Music] When gold and crypto move together, it catches the eyes of traders. The first six months of the year marked the worst half-year performance for the dollar since 1991. As concerns about US fiscal strength and trade dampened the currency's status as a safe haven.Receding confidence in the dollar was driving investors to sell dollars and buy gold and in this instance, cryptos. Gold is known as the ultimate safe haven. But Bitcoin continues to build its reputation as digital gold.Bitcoin has been behavi ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged nearly 40% year-to-date, significantly outperforming other assets like the S&P 500 and Bitcoin, which are up 12% and 23% respectively [1] Group 1: Gold Investment Trends - The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) has attracted nearly $11 billion in fresh net assets, while the SPDR Gold Minishares Trust (GLDM) has seen net inflows of $6.5 billion, contributing to a total of approximately $28 billion in net new money for physical gold ETFs this year [2] - This influx is a stark contrast to the sub-$3 billion intake in 2024, indicating a renewed investor interest in gold [2] Group 2: Market Drivers - Factors such as trade tensions, geopolitical risks, and economic uncertainty have positioned gold as a preferred safe haven and inflation hedge [3] - J.P. Morgan has raised its gold price forecasts, projecting an average of $4,068/oz in 2026, with potential peaks of $4,250 in Q4 2024, while Goldman Sachs has warned of a possible $5,000/oz if interest rate cuts lead to increased investment in gold [3] Group 3: Gold ETFs and Income Generation - Gold ETFs have benefited from macroeconomic support and growing investor appetite, with income-generating ETFs like the Simplify Gold Strategy Plus Income ETF (YGLD) up 60% this year and the NEOS Gold High Income ETF (IAUI) up over 9% this quarter [4] - These ETFs utilize options overlays to provide income, appealing to income-seeking investors [4] Group 4: Gold Miners Performance - Gold mining equities have experienced remarkable growth, with the Global X Gold Explorers ETF (GOEX) up 101% year-to-date, and other mining ETFs like Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM) and VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) up nearly 98% and 95% respectively [5][6] - Despite strong performance, miner ETFs have struggled to attract assets due to profit-taking and volatility concerns, although this trend may be changing as outflows decrease [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - The ongoing uncertainty regarding policy, regulation, and economic momentum suggests that the factors supporting gold prices are likely to persist, with forecasts indicating a potential 7-10% increase in gold prices from current levels [7] - There are various ETF options available for investors looking to capitalize on the gold market, including physical gold, income-generating gold, and equity-focused gold exposure [7]

Industry Trend - The resilience of Sony and Nintendo to tariffs positions Japan as a new safe haven [1]

Market Reaction - Initial market reaction to the Japanese election results saw the yen strengthen, potentially due to its safe-haven status [1][2] - Japanese equities (Nikkei index) remained steady, possibly anticipating a reversal of the yen's appreciation to benefit exports [3] Political and Economic Implications - The coalition government experienced significant losses in the election [1] - The rise of right-wing populist parties could introduce instability into financial markets [1] - Discontent over stagnant wages amidst inflation and increased foreign workers contributed to the election outcome [4] - Dramatic political transitions are generally perceived negatively, potentially impacting the economy and foreign investor risk appetite, which could harm Japanese stocks [4]

Market Trends & Investment Opportunities - Bitcoin is great because it's still only a $2 trillion asset, suggesting potential for growth compared to gold and stock markets [1][28] - The digital economy for financial rails is growing, requiring investors to focus on it more [21][24] - Regulatory clarity bills for crypto are expected to encourage Wall Street to enter the industry, potentially leading to significant innovation [25][26] - The crypto market cap has passed $4 trillion, with expectations of significant growth over the next three years [25] - AI is considered a deflationary event, with the market viewing inflation targets as less relevant [26] Monetary Policy & Economic Impact - Fed independence is in question, potentially impacting future market cycles [12][17] - The administration needs lower rates to help people, suggesting potential pressure on the Fed [22] - The US debt has significantly increased, distorting the economy and leading to a situation resembling a Ponzi scheme [24] - Liquidity cycles tend to be violent down and violent back up [2] - There is a demographic shift towards a gambling culture, impacting investment trends [26] AI Arms Race & Technological Disruption - A truce between China and the US in the AI arms race is leading to faster development [31] - Electricity is the primary constraint on AI development [31] - US data center demand is driving earnings for companies, indicating a massive buildout [31] - AI is slowing hiring in some sectors, requiring individuals to adapt and become entrepreneurial [32] - AI tools empower individuals and can be used to build businesses quickly [41]

UAE's Safe Haven Status - The UAE has thrived during global instability, attracting capital during events like the Arab Spring and the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] - The country is cultivating a reputation as the "Switzerland of the Middle East" through diplomacy, maintaining dialogue with various parties [6][7] - The UAE stock markets have led the recovery compared to global peers, reinforcing its safe haven status [10] Economic Impact and Stability - Initial jitters were observed among portfolio managers and hedge fund managers at the start of escalations between Israel and Iran [3] - Despite regional instability, hard economic metrics like non-oil GDP are not expected to be significantly affected [9] - Flight disruptions were brief and are not expected to have a major impact on tourism or aviation revenues [8] - Soft data, such as PMI, may be affected [8] - Quick response times, such as Qatar Airways moving 20,000 passengers within 24 hours, helped stabilize the situation [9] Potential Risks - Continued or escalating regional instability would negatively impact the UAE and the region [11]

Market Reaction & Risk Assessment - Initial market reaction to the US attack on Iran is expected to be a knee-jerk sell-off of risk assets and a buying of haven assets, followed by a quick rethink [2] - The severity of the market reaction depends on whether the conflict remains regional or broadens to affect US assets or extends beyond the Middle East [3] - A contrarian view suggests that if the nuclear threat of Iran is significantly hampered, it could remove a major risk to Middle East stability and be a net positive for stocks [6] - Monitoring trade flows in the Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea, and Horn of Africa is crucial; major disruptions would trigger alarms, first in commodities, then FX, and finally equities [11][12] Oil Market - Oil prices initially increased by approximately 4%, later paring back gains but still up almost 3% [3][4] - Brent crude's movement above $80 a barrel, a level not seen since early January, is a key number to watch [4] - Whether oil prices remain at or exceed $80 will be determined by events in the Strait of Hormuz [5] Treasury Market - The Treasury market's reaction is complex, influenced by both the Middle East situation and the US fiscal situation [8] - Concerns about higher energy prices potentially leading to higher inflation could send bonds in the opposite direction [8] - Market activity in long-dated bonds is currently muted, with low volume and little price change, but this could change soon [9] Geopolitical Factors - Iran's response, and its severity, is a key factor to watch [11] - The Tel Aviv 35 index closed at a record high for six consecutive days, indicating a positive market sentiment in Israel [7]

Market Trends & Analysis - The dollar index has been in a bear market since peaking on January 1st at 110 and February 3rd at 10975, characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows [2] - Technically, the dollar index needs to surpass 9936 to establish a neutral trend, with potential resistance around 100 [2] - Political uncertainty, tariff headlines, and speculation of US authorities favoring a weaker currency are fueling a rotation away from the dollar [3] Currency Composition & Reserve Rotation - The dollar's composition in foreign exchange reserves has decreased from approximately 71% in 2001 to about 57% in 2025 [4][5] - Central banks are rotating out of the dollar due to concerns about the unsustainable US fiscal trajectory, despite low default risk [5] - Central banks are diversifying their reserves by adding gold and other asset classes [6] Impact Factors & Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve's uncertainty regarding spending measures and geopolitical factors necessitates holding higher rates for longer [7] - Uncertainty surrounding the "big beautiful bill," Middle East conflict, and tariffs are holding back the dollar's rally [7] - Clarity on these issues is needed for the dollar index to potentially resume its rally [7]

Market Volatility & Geopolitical Landscape - The market is experiencing volatility due to recent geopolitical developments, particularly the conflict in the Middle East, but not as significantly as the tariff impacts earlier in the year [2] - Investors and advisors are becoming more accustomed to increased volatility [3] - Increased interest in fixed income ETFs, especially short-term ones, is observed as investors seek income with lower risk [3] - Broadly diversified ETFs, like the Vanguard 500 ETF, are attracting inflows, indicating investors are using sell-offs as buying opportunities [3][4] Tech Investment & Safe Haven Status - Tech is heavily weighted in broadly diversified large-cap ETFs, suggesting many investors include tech and AI as part of a broader portfolio [5] - Technology was considered a safe haven during the COVID selloff in 2020 [6] - Investors are now showing interest in more traditional defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples [7] - Large-cap tech is still seen as a relative safe haven, but investors also seek diversification with traditional defensive sectors [7] AI Revolution & Tech Valuation - Focusing solely on valuation can lead to missing transformational tech stocks [9] - The market is believed to be underestimating the growth potential of the AI revolution in tech [9] - Geopolitical events are viewed as opportunities to acquire tech stocks at lower prices [9]

get to Dom Chu. He's looking at some of the uh sectors and stocks on the move this morning. Hey, Dom.All right. So, Joe, Becky, in the wake of the uh Israeli air strikes on Iran, we wanted to give you a check on some of the safe haven trades that may react a little bit more in times of geopolitical risk and tension. Uh interestingly enough, uh visav the oil conversation you guys just had, that is where the real epicenter is.We are not seeing a lot of market activity. There is some activity in those safe hav ...