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Emerging Markets Analysis: Earnings, Valuations, and Currency Correlations
See It Market· 2025-09-17 17:56
Core Insights - Emerging Markets (EM) represent 10-15% of global equity market capitalization, which is significant but often overlooked due to poor performance in recent decades [1][2] - Over the past 15 years, EM has returned 4.6% annualized compared to 11.4% for Developed Markets (DM) and 7.3% for developed international markets, leading to a prolonged period of underperformance for EM [2][3] - In 2025, EM has shown a strong recovery, up approximately 21% compared to 13% for broader markets, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment [3] Resilience and Market Dynamics - Despite rising central bank rates from near zero in 2021 to 5.5% by the end of 2023, EM has shown resilience, managing the hiking cycle better than in previous cycles [4][5] - The overall growth and increased diversification in EM have made these markets less risky than in the past, with decreasing headwinds as rates begin to decline [5] Valuations and Earnings Growth - EM typically has lower valuations, with a current multiple spread of 20.4x for DM and 13.8x for EM, which is historically wide and supportive of EM investment [6][7] - Relative earnings growth has slowed due to a more tariffed global trade environment, but this is not seen as an insurmountable challenge [8] Flows and Currency Trends - Incremental capital is increasingly flowing into international markets, including EM, which may benefit from a weaker US dollar, historically a positive factor for EM performance [9][11] - Many developing economies in EM are resource-rich, which may enhance their currency strength in a context of inflationary pressures in developed economies [12] Concentration Issues - A concentration problem has emerged within EM, particularly with significant price appreciation in markets like China (up 45%), Hong Kong (60%), and Taiwan (30%) over the past year [13][14] - The high concentration in technology sectors within these markets raises concerns, as many investors may not be aware of the risks associated with this concentration [15] Final Thoughts - Despite some challenges, including slowing earnings growth and concentration risks, the positives for EM investment are seen to outweigh the negatives [16][17] - Attractive valuations and increasing international fund flows suggest that EM may capture a larger share of investment, especially if the US dollar continues to weaken [17]
NewEdge Wealth's Cameron Dawson: Equity market is not signaling concern about meaningful growth
CNBC Television· 2025-09-16 19:56
Let's bring in New Edge Wealth's Cameron Dawson and CNBC contributor Capital Area Planning Groups Malcolm Ethridge. Trivariates Adam Parker still with us at this hour. Uh Cameron, let's start to let's start with you because uh we were just talking about whether the economy is slowing down if it is doing so.Um is that consistent with where you see valuations in the equity markets right now. >> Certainly not. We don't think that the equity market is signaling any concern about a more meaningful slowdown in gr ...
By year-end there should be around 20 tech IPOS, says Barclays' Kristin DeClark
CNBC Television· 2025-09-15 16:07
As tech leads this latest IPO surge here in the US, could China's antitrust decision on Nvidia put a damper on tech deal making overseas. It's one question. Let's bring in Barclay's global head of tech investment banking, Kristen Roth to Clark.It's good to have you back. Welcome. >> Nice to see you.>> I mean, between M&A and IPOs, you must be busy. Level of activity this year now versus where we were last year. I would say the thing we're most excited about is just the level of IPO activity that we've seen ...
We're in a no hiring, no firing economy, says JPMorgan Asset's Phil Camporeale
CNBC Television· 2025-09-10 15:33
try to put together, Phil, uh what 23rd record high for the S&P this year. What are are you thinking about valuations more or is it more about the the potential that names like Oracle are handing us. Yeah, and I think a lot of it has to do, Carl, with the fact that a lot of the things that people were worried about this year that may have kept valuations lower are kind of fading away a little bit here.So, last December 18th, we were here, Federal Reserve told us that they would cut rates twice in 2025. Nine ...
Rishe: Sports architecture sees no end to their opportunities
CNBC Television· 2025-09-05 12:12
All right. So, I don't think it's surprising. I don't think it's surprising at all.We saw the Cowboys play on the kickoff game. The Eagles are the Super Bowl champs. They were locked in because they won the Super Bowl.Talk to me about the fact that valuations are rising and the fact that according to your research, 72 of the top 100 TV shows last season were the NFL games. Well, that's a big part of the reason why the values keep going up, Frank. The revenue streams are very predictable, which is part of th ...
