Market Performance & Trends - S&P 自四月低点以来上涨 30%，Magnificent 7 上涨 50%，年初的普涨趋势已经反转，主要由 Magnificent 7 驱动 [2] - 市场存在 AI 狂热，约 1 trillion 美元的资本支出掩盖了市场中的一些担忧 [3] - Russell 2000 的表现优于 S&P，等权重优于市值权重，但 Magnificent 7 的表现仍然优于其他 [2][3] Tariffs & Consumer Impact - 平均关税已从年初的 2%-3% 升至 15%-16%，但尚未看到关税对消费者的影响 [4][5] - 批发商正在吸收关税增加的价格，但尚未传导给消费者，而消费者占经济的 2/3 [4] - 关税对消费者的影响以及对通货膨胀的影响仍有待观察，10% 的增长幅度是可能发生的 [5] Federal Reserve (The Fed) & Interest Rates - 市场预计 9 月份降息的可能性为 80%，10 月份降息的可能性为 100%，但一切皆有可能 [8] - Newberger Private Wealth 预计今年将降息两次，除非出现意外的负面情况，否则预计不会降息三次 [9] - 市场情绪化，美联储的职责是保持客观，使用事实、数字和硬数据，避免屈服于政治压力 [8] - 鲍威尔在 Jackson Hole 的讲话备受关注，市场将根据他的言论做出反应 [6][7]

Monetary Policy & Advisory - The firm has been discussing monetary policy with Secretary Besson on a weekly basis for approximately 12 years [1] - The speaker received a call last Wednesday indicating inclusion on a list [1] Uncertainty & Guidance - The speaker is currently awaiting further guidance on future steps [2] - The speaker was not in the expected location when the list was released due to being in Jackson Hole [2]

According to Bloomberg, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Federal Reserve should consider a 50-basis-point rate cut at its Sept. 16–17 meeting, citing revised data showing weaker job growth in May and June than previously reported, and voiced hope that President Donald Trump’s Fed board nominee, Stephen Miran, will be confirmed before then. https://t.co/PKZNBDl0VL ...

🇺🇸 NEW: Bessent said the Federal Reserve should consider a 50 basis point interest rate cut in September. https://t.co/CZ8q4yAwVl ...

RT Bloomberg Opinion (@opinion)@JonathanJLevin “At the end of the day, the labor market is weakening,” says @KRooneyVera.“But we’re not at the point where the Fed has to rush a huge cut. They’ll probably go with 25 [basis points] in September.”https://t.co/2Xeig7Su8A ...

A weak July jobs report could prompt the Federal Reserve to make its first interest rate cut of the year, as more officials raise concerns about a weakening economy. https://t.co/4faVNumUhC ...

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Federal Housing Director Pulte says he is "optimistic Jerome Powell will do the right thing…as early as next week."The Fed will decide on a potential interest rate cut at next week's FOMC meeting. https://t.co/BnhvV38KNi ...

Our next guest says politicizing the Fed puts the F FOMC in a no-win situation for his insight on the Trump pal relationship. Let's bring in Roger Ferguson, former Fed vice chairman as well as a CNBC contributor. Uh Roger, one of the things that and it's good to see you. One of the things we've talked about is that the more you exert pressure on the Fed and J Pal uh to do something you want, it puts them in a position where it's less likely might make it make it less likely that they would do it even if you ...

RT Bloomberg Opinion (@opinion)@JonathanJLevin Do these numbers take a July interest rate cut off the table?Tune in for live Jobs Day analysis 🎥https://t.co/YQY6XVjGCR ...

Turning back to the markets now where the S&P really close to its all-time high once again. My next guest says he was surprised how quickly the market has rebounded since the tariff announcement and warns it doesn't make sense to be back here. Joining us is Vahhan Janjigian, the chief investment officer at Greenidge Wealth Management.Vahan, welcome to you. What doesn't add up for you here. Hi, Kelly.Um, so in my opinion, the market has bounced back largely because President Trump has backed off on the tarif ...