💥BREAKING:🇺🇸 Federal Reserve official says “rates are high right now, can cut 100 BPS into 2026.”HERE WE GO! 🚀 https://t.co/GcuGJKXLDL ...

Market Expectations - Wall Street anticipates a rate cut announcement at the Jackson Hole Summit on Friday [1] - The Fed Watch Tool indicates an 83% probability of a rate cut in September [1]

Federal Reserve Policy & Economic Concerns - The Federal Reserve (Fed) is divided, with concerns about tariffs, inflation, jobs, and the labor market [1] - Tariffs may drive inflation, but also hurt jobs, creating conflicting pressures on the Fed regarding rate cuts [2] - More committee members are concerned about inflation and unemployment, but there were two dissents by governors, indicating unusual circumstances [2] - Fed Chair Powell wants more data and to wait before making decisions, increasing the risk of waiting too long [3] - The market anticipates an easing cycle with multiple rate cuts, and Powell may not be able to control this expectation even with a single cut [5] Bond Market Dynamics - There's a divergence in bond markets, with short-term rates (five years and under) driven by central banks and long-term rates driven by fiscal policy [7] - A buyer strike on 30-year bonds exists due to concerns about fiscal policy, which the Fed likely cannot fix [7] Neutral Rate & Monetary Policy Tightness - The Fed funds rate is slightly higher than the 2-year yield, suggesting a moderately tight monetary policy [11] - The Fed's uncertainty about the neutral rate (estimated at 3%) contributes to its reluctance to act quickly [11][13] - The market has priced in an easing cycle with a terminal rate below the neutral rate, but current policy is somewhat tight because the Fed is unsure of the neutral rate [12][13] Powell's Upcoming Speech - Powell is expected to discuss the Fed's challenges and accomplishments since 2018, as well as the Fed's new 5-year framework [8] - Powell is expected to talk very little about policy for the next few meetings [9] - If Powell opens the door to future policy changes, the market will react significantly [10]

Market Overview & Potential Risks - Market is experiencing rotation from leading stocks to lagging stocks, leading to pullbacks in large-cap indices [1][2] - Bottom-up analysis reveals intermediate-term overbought downturns, indicating underlying deterioration [2][3] - Loss of support from mega-caps and leaders like Palantir could trigger a market correction, typical for this time of year [3] - Short-term sector rotation shows technology underperforming, benefiting oversold sectors like cyclicals [5] - Measured move objectives from previous breakouts suggest the risk-reward isn't favorable for new long positions [9] Key Levels & Technical Analysis - Initial support for NASDAQ 100 (NDX) is around 22,300, representing a breakout point [7] - If overbought downturns become widespread, the 200-day moving average and cloud model support are near 21,300 [8] - A 4-5% retreat to initial support is anticipated [9] Sector Analysis & Opportunities - Utilities sector is currently overweight, showing positive technical catalysts and intriguing relative performance [10] - Short-term rotations are positive for utilities versus the S&P 500, with oversold conditions suggesting stabilization [10] - Energy sector may perform better due to a bounce in crude oil prices [6] Interest Rate & Yield Impact - Market anticipates a rate cut in September, but the certainty is questionable [11] - If rate cuts occur, expect 10-year yields to decline, potentially breaking support around 42% (0.042) [12] - Historically, the start of Fed rate cut cycles tends to be more negative than positive for the equity market [13] - 10-year yield is in a tight range of 42% (0.042) to 44% (0.044) [13]

Bitcoin, Ethereum Rise After Fed Minutes Shed Light on Rate Cut Dissent► https://t.co/dx6AReGXzd https://t.co/dx6AReGXzd ...

September Rate Cut Likelihood continues to drop. Down another 3.7% today after FOMC Minutes Released.The Main Takeaways from FOMC Minutes Below.- Bowman & Waller dissented, wanted a 25bps cut (rare dovish split)First dual dissent in 30+ years — signals rising concern about labor weakness + inflation (excluding tariffs).- Majority Still Hawkish“Almost all” other Fed officials backed holding rates at 4.25–4.50%.Sticky inflation & upside surprises in recent data kept the Fed cautious on easing.- Powell balance ...

🇺🇸 WALL STREET IS PREDICTING THATA RATE CUT WILL BE ANNOUNCED ATJACKSON HOLE SUMMIT ON FRIDAY!FED WATCH TOOL ODDS ARE NOW AT83% FOR THE RATE CUT IN SEPTEMBER🔥 https://t.co/bebrI1xFu9 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Dow Jones Industrial Average is reaching new record highs, driven by rate cut optimism, sector rotation, and strong corporate earnings, particularly in sectors like industrials, retail, financials, and real estate [1][3][5]. Sector Performance - The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) has increased by 2.1% over the past week, outperforming the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series (QQQ), which gained 1.2% and 0.7% respectively [2]. - Investors are moving away from high-growth tech and AI sectors towards undervalued sectors, contributing to the Dow's rally [3]. Key Company Contributions - Home Depot (HD) and UnitedHealth (UNH) have significantly contributed to the Dow's performance, with Home Depot showing strong guidance despite an earnings miss, and UnitedHealth rising after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a $1.6 billion stake [4]. Interest Rate Expectations - The Dow is benefiting from increasing market expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with futures indicating two 25-basis point reductions, which would favor cyclical sectors [5][6]. Investment Characteristics - The Dow Jones index is composed of less risky, value-oriented stocks, providing stability and potential for higher returns with lower volatility compared to growth stocks [7]. - The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) has $39.2 billion in assets under management, holding 30 stocks with a maximum 10% share per security, and is diversified across several sectors [9].

Market Analysis - Trump stated there is no inflation, suggesting a potential major rate cut [1]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 President Trump says Fed Chair Jerome Powell is destroying the housing market."There is no inflation, and every sign is pointing to a major rate cut." https://t.co/bDrV8rtbbT ...