Report Summary 1. Market Overview - On December 4, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.06% to 3875.79 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.40% to 13006.72 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.01% to 3067.48 points [2][6]. - The total trading volume of A - shares in the two markets was 1561.8 billion yuan [2][6]. - The top - performing sectors were machinery and equipment (0.90%), electronics (0.78%), and national defense and military industry (0.55%), while the worst - performing sectors were comprehensive (-2.11%), beauty care (-1.89%), and social services (-1.62%) [2][6]. 2. Stock ETF - The stock ETFs with high trading volume today were Huaxia CSI A500 ETF (up 0.35% with a discount rate of 0.49%), Huatai - Berie CSI A500 ETF (up 0.25% with a discount rate of 0.41%), and Guotai CSI A500 ETF (up 0.35% with a discount rate of 0.38%) [3][7]. - The top ten stock ETFs by trading volume are presented in Chart 1, including details such as price, change rate, tracking index change rate, discount rate, trading volume, and latest share reference [8]. 3. Bond ETF - The bond ETFs with high trading volume today were Haifutong CSI Short - Term Financing ETF (down 0.00% with a discount rate of - 0.01%), Pengyang ChinaBond 30 - Year Treasury Bond ETF (down 1.32% with a discount rate of - 1.00%), and Bosera CSI Convertible and Exchangeable Bond ETF (down 0.29% with a discount rate of - 0.43%) [4][9]. - The top five bond ETFs by trading volume are shown in Chart 2, including price, change rate, discount rate, and trading volume [10][11]. 4. Gold ETF - Today, gold AU9999 fell 0.08% and Shanghai Gold fell 0.30%. The gold ETFs with high trading volume were Huaan Gold ETF (down 0.35% with a discount rate of - 0.21%), E Fund Gold ETF (down 0.37% with a discount rate of - 0.20%), and Bosera Gold ETF (down 0.35% with a discount rate of - 0.21%) [12]. - The top five gold ETFs by trading volume are presented in Chart 3, including price, change rate, trading volume, IOPV, and discount rate [13]. 5. Commodity Futures ETF - Today, Dacheng Non - ferrous Metals Futures ETF rose 1.18% with a discount rate of 1.57%, ChinaAMC Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF fell 0.25% with a discount rate of 0.33%, and Jianxin Yisheng Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Energy and Chemical Futures ETF rose 0.08% with a discount rate of - 0.29% [13]. - Details of commodity futures ETFs are shown in Chart 4, including price, change rate, trading volume, IOPV, discount rate, tracking index, and tracking index change rate [14]. 6. Cross - border ETF - The previous trading day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.86%, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.17%, the S&P 500 rose 0.30%, and the German DAX fell 0.07%. Today, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.68% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.86% [15]. - The cross - border ETFs with high trading volume today were E Fund CSI Hong Kong Securities Investment Theme ETF (down 0.05% with a discount rate of - 0.01%), GF CSI Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (up 1.99% with a discount rate of 2.17%), and Huatai - Berie Hang Seng Technology ETF (up 1.24% with a discount rate of 1.18%) [15]. - The top five cross - border ETFs by trading volume are presented in Chart 5, including trading volume, change rate, and discount rate [16]. 7. Money ETF - The money ETFs with high trading volume today were Silver Hua Day - to - Day Interest ETF, Huabao Tianyi ETF, and Money ETF [17]. - The top three money ETFs by trading volume are shown in Chart 6, including trading volume [18].

Market Cycle Analysis - The Bitcoin cycle exists, but its correlation with time-based assumptions is diminishing, with other factors becoming more relevant [4] - The 4-year halving cycle still exists as a technical component of Bitcoin, but its relationship with price appreciation or depreciation is weakening [3] - The market has witnessed an occasional 35% correction [2] Impact of ETFs - Bitcoin ETFs have introduced nearly 60,000 BTC in liquidity, changing the price dynamics of Bitcoin [5] - Institutional demand through ETFs has established a new Bitcoin price floor, more than 100% higher than the previous one [6] Macroeconomic Factors - Bitcoin is a high Beta risk-on asset that performs well during economic growth but struggles during social and economic unrest or when Gold accelerates [8] - Liquidity cycles before 2008 averaged 8-10 years, contrasting with the 4-year liquidity cycle observed after 2008 [11] Correlation Analysis - The strength of the Chinese Yuan (CNY) against the US Dollar (USD) is a core indicator of strength for businesses in the US and the global economy, impacting risk-on investment behavior [15] - Historically, bottoms in CNY/USD have coincided with bottoms in ETH/BTC [15] - Comparing current cycles to previous ones suggests the Bitcoin cycle might be extended, potentially mirroring the middle of 2016 or 2019 [17] Future Outlook - Looking forward to 2026-2027, several factors suggest a potentially bullish outlook, including Bank of America opening up Bitcoin ETF allocations, the Clarity Act enabling DeFi solutions for institutions, and the FED potentially lowering interest rates [21][22] - The current stage is comparable to Q1/Q2 2016 or Q4 2019, suggesting the market is nowhere near a top [20]

RT BSCN (@BSCNews)IS $MOG REALLY GETTING AN ETF?! - A recent filing for a @mogcoin ETF has shocked the industry. Does it stand any chance of approval? https://t.co/hYgcBRTZD7 ...

🗞️ Bitcoin briefly dipped below its fair value for the first time in two years.🗞️ BlackRock’s IBIT ranks among the most-traded ETFs.🗞️ Kalshi raises $1B at an $11B valuation, announces partnership with CNN.@JennSanasie hosts "CoinDesk Daily." https://t.co/AiAb4NEgBf ...

Market Trends - Bitcoin briefly dipped below its fair value for the first time in two years [1] Investment & Funding - Kalshi raises $1 billion at an $11 billion valuation [1] ETF Performance - BlackRock's IBIT ranks among the most-traded ETFs [1] Partnerships & Media - Kalshi announces partnership with CNN [1]

Market Trend - Franklin Templeton launches Solana ETF, expanding Wall Street's crypto offerings [1]

Bitcoin Cycle Analysis - The Bitcoin cycle, often based on the 4-year halving cycle, is a core investment dynamic in Web3, but its relationship with price appreciation is diminishing due to other factors [1][3] - The market experienced a 35% correction, highlighting the ongoing debate between bulls and bears regarding the 4-year cycle's validity [2] - The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs has significantly altered the price dynamics, injecting nearly 60,000 BTC in liquidity and establishing a new price floor more than 100% higher than the previous one [4][5] Macroeconomic Factors - Macroeconomic headwinds, including quantitative tightening (QT) and high interest rates, continue to influence the Bitcoin cycle [6] - Bitcoin's performance is inversely correlated with the strength of Gold, as it thrives during economic growth but struggles during social and economic unrest [7] - Liquidity cycles were significantly longer before 2008, averaging between 8-10 years, suggesting the current cycle might be in the middle of a larger bull cycle [9] Correlation and Future Outlook - The correlation between the strength of the Chinese Yuan (CNY/USD) and Ethereum against Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) may indicate an extended Bitcoin cycle, potentially mirroring the mid-stages of 2016 or 2019 [12][13][14][15] - Combining the business cycle with Bitcoin cycles suggests the market might be in the middle of a peak bear phase, comparable to Q1/Q2 2016 or Q4 2019 [17][18] - Looking forward to 2026-2027, factors like Bank of America's allowance for Bitcoin ETF allocation, the Clarity Act, and potential quantitative easing (QE) suggest a less bearish outlook than the traditional 4-year cycle would indicate [19][20]

JUST IN: BlackRock Bitcoin ETF options are now the 5th most actively traded on the market, surpassing Amazon 👀 https://t.co/Ngc2zEu1P9 ...

RT BSCN (@BSCNews)IS $MOG REALLY GETTING AN ETF?! - A recent filing for a @mogcoin ETF has shocked the industry. Does it stand any chance of approval? https://t.co/hYgcBRTZD7 ...

RT BSCN (@BSCNews)🚨 REPORT: CHAINLINK ETF EXPECTED THIS WEEK - Analysts are optimistic about the prospects of an imminent @chainlink ETF launch... But what will it mean for the $LINK token? https://t.co/4rNeT1kvaw ...