9月30日，美股盘前，由于美国政府停摆风险仍未解除，投资者保持谨慎，美国三大股指期货集体下跌，标普500指数期货下跌0.2%，纳斯达克 100指数期货跌0.3%，道指期货下跌0.2%，美元承压，黄金价格再创历史新高。 中概股多数上涨，哔哩哔哩涨约5%，小鹏汽车涨约2%，阿里巴巴涨约1%。必和必拓美股夜盘跌近7%。 亚洲股市跌多涨少，日经225收跌0.2%，首尔综指收跌0.2%，越南VN指数跌1%，新加坡海峡指数上涨0.4%，马来西亚指数上涨0.4%。 商品方面，现货黄金上涨近1%至3868.8美元/盎司，白银下跌近1%，铜高位回调，原油下跌。 受美国政府关门风险的影响，美元承压，美元指数下跌0.15%至97.79。 核心资产走势如下： 纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.3%。由于美国政府关门的风险尚未解除，投资者仍较为谨慎。特朗普于美东时间周一与民主党人会面，但在达成避免 政府关门的协议方面尚未取得任何进展。议员们必须在周三凌晨0:01之前达成协议，否则将导致政府部分关门。 如果政府停摆，政府将停止发布经济数据，届时美联储将缺少制定利率路径的关键数据。 美国三大股指期货集体下跌，标普500指数期货下跌0.2%，纳斯 ...

Group 1 - The iShares Silver Trust, the world's largest silver ETF, reported a holding of 15,521.35 tons of silver as of September 29, an increase of 159.51 tons from the previous trading day [1] - On September 29, the spot silver price closed at $46.89 per ounce, up 1.85%, with an intraday high of $47.17 and a low of $45.92 [1] Group 2 - The U.S. federal government is facing a shutdown crisis as funding is set to run out at midnight on September 30 [3] - Following a meeting with President Trump, congressional leaders expressed significant divisions and minimal progress in negotiations to prevent the government shutdown [4] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that if funding is interrupted, it will halt all data collection, affecting the release of key reports such as the non-farm payroll report and consumer price index (CPI) [4]

Core Points - The U.S. government is facing a potential shutdown, with various departments releasing plans for temporary employee furloughs just before the deadline [1][2] - Over 400,000 non-essential employees may be furloughed across eight cabinet departments, which account for more than two-thirds of federal employees [1] - The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has indicated that 1,563 positions are in a "RIF status," potentially facing permanent cuts [1] Group 1 - The federal agencies typically announce their shutdown plans weeks in advance, but this year many released their emergency plans within the last 24 hours before the deadline [2] - The lack of agreement on a temporary funding bill between the two parties in Congress suggests a high likelihood of a government shutdown [2] - Essential personnel will continue to work during the shutdown, including law enforcement and IT staff necessary for data maintenance [2] Group 2 - The Department of Health and Human Services will stop accepting new patients for clinical research and limit public health information dissemination during the shutdown [3] - The Department of Labor will suspend the release of economic data, including the September non-farm payroll report [3] - The Social Security Administration will place approximately 6,000 of its 51,000 employees on unpaid leave during the shutdown [4] Group 3 - The Department of Veterans Affairs will continue benefits and medical care, but maintenance of cemeteries will cease during the shutdown [5] - The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) plans to keep all 74,299 employees working due to funding secured through the Inflation Reduction Act, which extends until 2031 [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with various commodities having different trends. Some commodities are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by geopolitical factors, seasonal changes, and policy expectations. Investors need to pay attention to different influencing factors for each commodity and adjust their investment strategies accordingly, especially during the National Day holiday to control risks [2][3][44] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices dropped significantly. The supply side is in a multi - empty intertwined state. The oil inventory accumulation process is clear, with a 2.4% increase in the third quarter. It's recommended to hold a protective strategy combining futures shorts and call options [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Iraq's crude oil export recovery and OPEC +'s increasing production expectations put pressure on oil prices. High - sulfur fuel oil supply may tighten due to geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a weaker fundamental situation [20] - **Asphalt**: Market pre - holiday stocking enthusiasm increased. The overall inventory level decreased. The 10 - month production plan was in line with expectations, and the BU trend is temporarily oscillating strongly [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Due to typhoon weather in South China, the import volume decreased. Supply - demand improved marginally, and the LPG price rebounded slightly from the bottom [22] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight precious metals continued to be strong. The medium - term upward trend remains, but there is high volatility risk during the National Day holiday, so it's recommended to stay on the sidelines [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices rose. The market is digesting the supply impact. Technically, LME copper shows potential for a trend breakthrough, and SHFE copper enters the high - price area. However, there are negative demand expectations [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight non - ferrous metals were strong, but SHFE aluminum was relatively stable. The consumption in September was lower than expected, and it faces resistance at the March high. Pay attention to the peak - season feedback after the holiday [5] - **Zinc**: As the National Day holiday approaches, the zinc fundamentals weakened. Shorts increased positions significantly. Pay attention to the support at 21,500 yuan/ton, and be vigilant against potential short squeezes in the outer market [8] - **Lead**: The supply of lead exceeded demand in the short term, and the price dropped significantly. Pay attention to the cost support at around 16,500 yuan/ton [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel is in a weak state. The inventory of pure nickel and nickel iron decreased, while the stainless - steel inventory increased. Wait for the external copper price to drive the market [10] - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices rose rapidly. Pay attention to the impact of Indonesia's policy and the changes in refined tin production rate and inventory after the holiday [11] - **Manganese Silicon & Silicon Iron**: With the "Three - Carbon" concept, there is an upward driving force for prices. The demand from molten iron production is rising, and it's recommended to go long at low prices [18][19] Chemicals - **Urea**: Agricultural and industrial demand is weak, and the supply exceeds demand. The inventory of production enterprises continues to accumulate. Pay attention to policy adjustments [23] - **Methanol**: The methanol market is expected to be weak. Pay attention to macro - sentiment and overseas device changes [24] - **Pure Benzene**: The real - world fundamental situation is okay, but the oil - price collapse and future demand decline expectations drag down the market [24] - **Styrene**: The cost - side support from oil prices is strengthening, but high inventory suppresses prices [25] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply of polypropylene is under pressure, and the price is always under pressure. For polyethylene, the downstream has stocking demand before the holiday, but there is de - stocking pressure after the holiday [26] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a weak and oscillating state due to high supply and inventory. Caustic soda may oscillate due to weak current situation and strong future expectations [27] - **PX & PTA**: The strong expectations of PX are weakened, and the supply - demand situation of PTA is still under pressure after the holiday [28] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply pressure is not large in the short term, but the supply - demand may be weak in the fourth quarter [29] - **Short Fibre & Bottle Chip**: Short - fiber demand is boosted during the peak season, and bottle - chip prices are affected by short - term factors [30] Building Materials - **Glass**: Pay attention to the downstream restocking sentiment. If capacity reduction does not occur, the market may return to a weak state [31] Agricultural Products - **Soybean - related Products**: U.S. soybeans face seasonal and export pressures. Palm oil is in a seasonal production - reduction cycle. Mid - term, soybean and palm oil are expected to trade in a range. Consider protective call strategies [34] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: Due to the holiday, market sentiment is cautious. Rapeseed meal demand is suppressed, while rapeseed oil inventory is expected to continue to decline. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines before the holiday [35] - **Domestic Soybeans**: Domestic soybeans are performing better than imported ones in the short term. Pay attention to the performance after the listing of domestic soybeans [36] - **Eggs**: Egg futures have significantly reduced positions. After the National Day, demand will weaken. Consider long positions in far - month contracts next year [38] - **Cotton**: U.S. and Chinese cotton prices are falling. Xinjiang cotton may have a bumper harvest, and domestic demand is weak. Temporarily stay on the sidelines [39] - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production may remain high, and the market focuses on the next - crop - season yield estimate in China [40] - **Apples**: Although the spot market is good, the cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected, so maintain a short - selling mindset [41] - **Timber**: The supply - demand situation has improved, and the spot price is relatively low. Maintain a long - buying mindset [42] - **Pulp**: Pulp prices hit a new low. The inventory in Chinese ports is relatively high, and the demand is average. Stay on the sidelines [43] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The stock index showed strength. The external liquidity environment for the Greater China stock index is positive. Mid - term, increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors, and moderately increase the allocation of cyclical sectors in the short term [44] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury futures closed down. The economic operation faces challenges, and the yield - curve steepening probability increases [45] Livestock - **Hogs**: Hog futures dropped. The supply is abundant, and the government has carried out small - scale purchases. The industry is in a loss state. Pay attention to the impact of re - entry in the fourth quarter [37] - **Eggs**: Egg futures reduced positions significantly. The demand will weaken after the National Day. Consider long positions in far - month contracts for next year [38]

Group 1 - The U.S. government is heading towards a shutdown due to disagreements between Democrats and Republicans over funding issues, particularly regarding healthcare subsidies and tax cuts [1][2] - Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer stated that significant differences remain between the parties, and the President could avoid a shutdown by accepting some Democratic demands [1][2] - Senate Republican leader John Thune criticized the Democrats for refusing to approve a short-term spending bill, equating it to "taking hostages" [1][2] Group 2 - The potential government shutdown could delay the release of key economic indicators, including the monthly non-farm payroll report, and result in federal employees being furloughed or working without pay [2][3] - The Labor Department announced that it would not release economic data during a potential shutdown, leading to a decline in U.S. stock market gains [3] - If a shutdown occurs, it would be the first since the 2018-2019 period, which lasted five weeks [4] Group 3 - House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries indicated that Democrats would not accept promises of future cooperation on healthcare policy in exchange for support of a short-term spending bill [7] - Democrats are advocating for a $350 billion extension of tax credits under the Affordable Care Act for middle-class families to prevent premium increases [7] - The Democratic agenda includes reversing cuts to medical research and blocking the White House from rescinding previously allocated funds [7]

Market Review - Spot gold prices have surpassed $3840 per ounce, reaching a new high [6] - On September 29, US major stock indices experienced slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.15% at 46316.07 points, S&P 500 up 0.26% at 6661.21 points, and Nasdaq up 0.48% at 22591.15 points [6] - European stock indices also saw minor increases, with Germany's DAX up 0.02% at 23745.06 points, France's CAC40 up 0.13% at 7880.87 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.16% at 9299.84 points [6] International Macro - US President Trump met with congressional leaders on September 29 to discuss avoiding a government shutdown, with significant disagreements noted by Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer [7] - The US federal government is set to run out of funding by midnight on September 30, risking a government shutdown if no agreement is reached on funding legislation [7] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has announced that it will halt data collection and not release planned reports, including the monthly non-farm payroll report, if funding is interrupted [7] Corporate News - On September 29, DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp model was officially released and open-sourced on the Hugging Face platform, introducing a sparse attention mechanism for improved efficiency in training and inference of long texts [8] - OpenAI plans to release the new Sora 2 video generator as a standalone application, which may generate videos containing copyrighted content unless rights holders opt out [8] Institutional Views - Goldman Sachs analysts predict that global stock markets are likely to continue rising until the end of the year, supported by strong US economic performance and favorable stock valuations [9] - The team led by Christian Mueller-Glissmann has upgraded the global stock market allocation rating to "overweight" for the next three months, suggesting that stocks typically perform well in the later stages of economic slowdown with strong policy support [9]

抛售高达1.6万亿美元的美债，美联储站上风口浪尖；政府即将关门，80万人或将停薪，国会迟迟无法 达成协议；特朗普亲自出马，准备与四大领袖摊牌。 白宫下令联邦机构起草大规模裁员计划，一场制度与市场的双重崩塌悄然逼近。 拨款僵局中的停摆装置 国会拨款案在 2025 年 9 月中旬进入紧张对峙期。 参议院否决一项短期拨款延续法案，令联邦政府运营面临断裂边缘。财政资金将在 9 月 30 日午夜枯 竭。立法与行政之间的裂痕迅速暴露。 国会两党纷纷将责任归咎对方。共和党议员强调必须先通过短期法案以防止政府关闭；民主党阻击，仅 愿在法案中加入医疗补贴与社会项目条款。参议院多数票标准高企，使得短暂方案难以通过。 白宫预算办公室发出内部通告，要求联邦各部门启动拨款中断应对方案。多部门被指向编制"裁员或人 员缩减"预案，以应付可能的运营中断。这在过去几次停摆中少见。政府机构内部紧急动员，清点优先 任务、暂停新项目、压缩支出。 航空、交通、司法、科研、公共卫生、社保、政府补助等多个功能区进入预警状态。部分联邦合同将被 暂缓履行。机场、交通枢纽等涉及联邦资助的基础设施部门暗中评估人员短缺风险。若停摆发生，最先 被感知将可能是这些公共 ...

Group 1: Market Indices - Major global stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 46,316.07, up by 68.78 points or 0.15% [1] - The Nasdaq increased by 107.08 points, reaching 22,591.15, a rise of 0.48% [1] - The S&P 500 rose by 17.51 points to 6,661.21, reflecting a 0.26% increase [1] Group 2: U.S. Government Shutdown - President Trump met with congressional leaders to discuss avoiding a government shutdown, with a funding deadline approaching [3] - Senate Democratic leader Schumer indicated significant divisions, stating that the decision on a shutdown depends on the Republican Party [3] - The U.S. Labor Statistics Bureau warned that a government shutdown would halt data collection and release, affecting upcoming non-farm payroll and CPI reports [4] Group 3: Gold Market - Gold prices reached a historic high of $3,824.5 per ounce, pushing the value of U.S. gold reserves to over $1 trillion for the first time [6] - The increase in gold prices, which have risen 45% this year, is driven by factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [6] - Switzerland proposed a new gold refining plan to negotiate a reduction in U.S. import tariffs, with gold prices remaining stable at high levels [7] Group 4: Film Industry - President Trump announced a 100% tariff on films produced overseas, claiming that the U.S. film industry is being undermined by foreign competition [5] - This decision has caused turmoil in the film industry, with experts warning of increased production and ticket costs, potentially leading to retaliatory measures from other countries [5] Group 5: International Relations - A coalition of eight countries, including Saudi Arabia and Turkey, expressed support for Trump's ceasefire plan in Gaza, emphasizing its significance for Palestinian statehood [8] - The plan aims to establish a temporary governance structure in Gaza and prevent further conflict [8] Group 6: Technology and AI - OpenAI announced a partnership with Etsy and Shopify to introduce a direct checkout feature for U.S. users, boosting stock prices for both companies [11] - Anthropic launched a new AI model, ClaudeSonnet4.5, claiming it to be the best coding model globally, with significant performance metrics [12]

美国联邦政府资金将于当地时间9月30日午夜耗尽，政府再次陷入停摆危机。美国国会两党领导人29日 在会见特朗普后纷纷对媒体表示，双方存在巨大分歧，谈判进展甚微。 当地时间9月26日，美国劳工部发布应急计划称，正在寻求确保劳工部各机构能够在出现停摆时有序暂 停计划和运营，同时继续开展在停摆期间获准继续进行的有限活动。美国劳工部称，若政府陷入停摆， 劳工部将不会发布预计本周公布的关键就业报告和其他数据，这些报告将提供有关经济走向的重要线 索，并在美联储政策制定者10月份下次会议之前提供信息。 ...

Market Overview - Alibaba shares rose by 4.6%, JD.com increased by 3.3%, Baidu by 2.7%, NetEase by 2.5%, and Pinduoduo by 0.6% [1][4] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index increased by over 2% [4] - Nvidia shares rose by 2.0%, Amazon by 1.1%, and Tesla by 0.6%, while Meta, Oracle, Apple, and Google saw slight declines [3] - Electronic Arts (EA) shares surged by 4.5% following a $55 billion acquisition announcement, marking the largest leveraged buyout attempt in history with a 25% premium [3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. housing market showed a surprising 4% increase in existing home sales in August, reversing a 0.3% decline in July, attributed to falling mortgage rates [6] - Oxford Economics indicated that as 30-year fixed mortgage rates approach 6%, the housing market is expected to stabilize and improve significantly [6] Commodity Prices - International gold prices reached a historic high, with COMEX gold futures for September delivery rising by 1.18% to $3,820.90 per ounce [5] - Crude oil prices fell significantly, with WTI crude dropping by 3.45% to $63.45 per barrel and Brent crude down by 3.08% to $67.97 per barrel, influenced by increased global oil supply [4]