Market Trends & Uncertainty - Potential for significantly raising tariffs on India is causing widespread concern and driving supply chain issues [1] - Businesses are facing uncertainty due to tariffs, impacting their ability to stabilize costs and pricing [2][3] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs may lead to a cost increase, potentially resulting in a 0.5% to 0.7% increase in inflation over the next one to two years [3] - Stockpiling has delayed the impact of tariffs, but businesses are now working through reserves [5] - Long-term uncertainty regarding final tariff amounts could extend cost increases, inflationary pressures, and supply chain problems into the future [15] Geopolitical & Economic Impact - India is considered a crucial ally, and potential tariff increases are particularly concerning [6] - China is investing in technology and infrastructure due to anticipated population decline [7] - A weak US dollar is a concern not only for the US but also for the rest of the world, with some funds hedging away from the dollar [11] - Other countries want the US to be strong, recognizing that a weak America poses a global problem [10] Policy & Legal Considerations - The legality of the emergency acts used for tariffs is being challenged and may go to the Supreme Court, creating further uncertainty [17] - Deals with the EU, France, and Germany are considered solid [9] - The EU is delaying its response to US tariffs, hoping for a better outcome [13] - There are disagreements regarding the specifics of deals, such as the allocation of 600 to 650 billion dollars [14]

Donald Trump isn’t letting up on his quest to remake global trade in America’s favor, saying he will impose increased tariffs on countries buying energy from Russia: Here is your Evening Briefing. https://t.co/MENha3IFGO ...

We're in the thick of the Q2 earnings season, and we're finally getting to see the impacts that tariffs and the challenged macroeconomy are having on actual business results: and in many cases, the results aren't as pretty as the highflying stock market Analyst's Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not re ...

Trade Tariffs and International Relations - The US president is escalating global trade tariff war, potentially increasing costs for products from countries like Switzerland [1] - The president threatened the EU with a 35% tariff if it does not invest $600 billion in the United States, and is rolling out new tariffs on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports [2] - The president's strategy involves raising tariffs to extract more concessions from other countries, such as the EU, Japan, and South Korea [4] - The administration views tariffs as a source of revenue and leverage on the world stage, leading to unpredictable trade moves [7] - Trade disruptions caused by tariff policies are negatively impacting economic activity both domestically and globally [9] Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The Treasury Secretary does not want to succeed Jay Powell as the Fed chair, but others are in the running [10] - Potential candidates for Fed chair include Kevin Warsh, who is respected by Wall Street, and Kevin Hasset, who is loyal to the president [11][12] - The president may prioritize loyalty over market approval when choosing the next Fed chair [12] - Governors Waller and Bowman dissented from the Fed's decision to leave rates unchanged, advocating for lower rates [14] Banking and Regulatory Issues - The White House is reportedly preparing an executive order to punish banks that it claims discriminate against conservatives [15] - The president accused JP Morgan and Bank of America of discriminating against him by not taking his accounts [16] - Banks and the White House generally agree on a deregulatory agenda [17]

Economic Data & Political Influence - Concerns arise over potential political manipulation of economic data, specifically at the Bureau of Labor Statistics [2] - The integrity of the Bureau of Labor Statistics is emphasized, highlighting the credibility and experience needed for the role [3] - The possibility of rigging data is dismissed, emphasizing the established processes and controls in place [5] - The administration's credibility is at risk if it attempts to discredit independent data, as people are aware of ongoing economic challenges [4] - The president's claims of political manipulation send a negative signal, potentially discouraging the release of credible data [7] - Cooking economic statistics is likely to be exposed quickly, triggering market reactions and internal dissent [8] - The administration is accused of trying to enforce a false version of reality by pressuring government agencies to align with its views [11][12][13] - There are concerns about scrubbing data related to vaccines and climate change, undermining independent data relied upon for policy decisions [15] Trade & Tariffs - The president's strategy involves leveraging tariffs to push forward a geopolitical agenda [19] - The EU may not be able to fulfill its promise of $600 billion in exchange for lower tariffs [16] - A 15% tariff rate is considered a potential floor, marking a significant change in the world economy [17][18] - The president's tactics involve extreme escalation to pressure countries into submission [22]

There there was a big correction in the market after liberation day which were much much higher levels and quite concerning uh across the board and there was some question as to whether they were going to be to negotiate or not. Um right now the market is is looking at some certainty and some uncertainty. Um clearly the market's driven right now by a lot of AI spending a lot of capex in technology.This is all very very good things for the US economy on trade. I think it's going to take time to see how these ...

Trade Policy Objectives - The president aims to rebalance trading relationships for greater equality [1] - Tariffs are viewed as a revenue-generating tool [2] Tariff Impact & Revenue - A 10% baseline tariff across the board could generate over $2 trillion over a long period, significantly impacting the budget deficit [2] - Current tariffs range between 15% and 30% [2] Market Adjustment - The market is gradually adjusting to a higher baseline tariff environment [3] - Progress appears to be underway regarding trade with China [3]

Trade Policy - Tariffs were intended to reduce the trade deficit between imports and exports [1] - The U S trade deficit decreased in June [1] - Tariffs may have had an unforeseen impact on the trade deficit [1]

From @WSJopinion: Absent amid the MAGA triumphalism has been any consideration of what can’t be seen—the economic activity that hasn’t and won’t happen because of the tariffs, writes @MattHennessey https://t.co/pfukwzUdJc ...

And as President Trump's tariffs take effect, various industries share, in their own words, the impact on their operations and their bottom lines. As we head out to break, we take a look at the auto industry and how it's being affected by tariff policy. Since inception, I really wanted to focus on American manufacturers.So about 95% of our supplier pool is domestic. Or so we thought. We're discovering that's not exactly true.Meaning many of our suppliers, the key components or elements of their products tha ...