>> Welcome back. Consumer prices picked up slightly in June, but largely in line with expectations. Joining me now to discuss is Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Slok.It's good to have you, Torsten. You have been one of the economists warning that tariffs are going to be inflationary. Just not seeing it yet in a.>> Big way. Hold on. This report does mark the liftoff in inflation.If you look at the subcomponents for tools, for toys, for apparel, for furniture, it's very clear that you're not ...

WELCOME TO MEET THE PRESS NOW. I'M GABE GUTIERREZ IN WASHINGTON, AND WE BEGIN IN PENNSYLVANIA, WHERE PRESIDENT TRUMP IS SPEAKING AT A SUMMIT ON AI AND ENERGY AS HE SEEKS TO TOUT A KEY PROVISION IN THE SWEEPING LEGISLATION CONGRESSIONAL REPUBLICANS DELIVERED FOR HIM IN A STATE THAT HELPED DELIVER HIM THE WHITE HOUSE. HERE'S A LIVE LOOK AT THAT SUMMIT IN PITTSBURGH, WHERE THE PRESIDENT JUST FORMALLY ANNOUNCED A $90 BILLION INVESTMENT IN AI, ALONG WITH THE ENERGY NEEDED TO POWER IT.>> TODAY'S COMMITMENTS ARE E ...

Some investors had clung to a bit of hope that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates at its next meeting on July 30. Tuesday's report on inflation brought the chances of that down even further. https://t.co/UVSA47RZPw ...

Let's bring in former Fed Governor Randy Crosner. Talk about Randy. Maybe the data first.A lot of the coverage this morning sort of hints that we're beginning to see some residue around tariffs on this print. You agree. So, we're certainly seeing a little bit of that.You know, if you look at particular categories like toys, furniture, etc. You are seeing uh a little bit higher inflation than we'd seen in the past. But um if you look overall, it's hard to see a big impact yet. And that's the big debate.Is it ...

New key inflation data is in from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics. June's consumer price index jumped uh.3% from the month before, putting the year uh over-year inflation rate at 2.7%. That's in line with expectations.We've been talking about it for years. We talked about it during the Biden administration. We're talking about it now during the Trump administration.Our economy gets uh so much thrown at it and it just seems to put its head down, keep going. These are pretty good numbers. These are good nu ...

Inflation Trends & CPI Analysis - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 03% month-over-month, aligning with estimates, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose by 02%, slightly below expectations [1] - Year-over-year, consumer inflation increased by 27%, and core inflation rose by 29% [1][2] - Inflation is heating up slightly compared to the previous month, where both headline and core inflation increased by only 01% [2] - Core CPI has been consistently lower than estimated for the fifth consecutive month [3] Tariff Impact & Business Strategies - Initial data suggests that tariff increases are contributing less than a third to the monthly CPI increase, with some pressure emerging in categories first exposed to tariffs [7] - Businesses are employing various strategies, including inventory management, alternative sourcing, cost spreading, and margin adjustments, to buffer the impact of tariffs and avoid passing costs directly to consumers [9] - Apparel prices rose by 04%, footwear increased by 07%, and furniture/furnishings prices also saw a rise [8][31] - The effective tariff rate in June was only 10%, while the average tariff rate was around 15%, indicating that the full impact of tariffs has yet to materialize [14] Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve faces a challenging decision regarding interest rate cuts, amidst pressure from the White House and the need to maintain its 2% inflation target [4][17] - The current federal funds rate is considered moderately restrictive, putting downward pressure on demand [18] - There is a risk that prolonged elevated inflation could become ingrained in people's expectations, potentially settling around 3% [20] - The Fed is closely monitoring core services inflation, which has been stubbornly slow to decline, to ensure momentum towards the 2% target [21][25] - The FOMC is divided on future rate cuts, with varying opinions on the number of cuts in 2025 [29] Specific Price Changes - Beef prices saw a significant increase of 2%, while egg prices decreased by 74% [32][33] - New vehicle prices dropped by 03%, and used cars/trucks decreased by 07% [34] - Shelter costs moderated, increasing by 02% compared to May's 03% rise [35] - The energy index rose by 09% in June, with the gas index increasing by 1% [36]

Heading into earnings season, a price to earnings or PE ratio of 22 suggest stocks are priced at 22 times their annual earnings, which is historically high. For context, the S&P 500 long-term average PE is around 15 to 16 with peaks near 25 to 30 during past bubbles such as the dot era. A PE of 22 is elevated but not extreme by historical standards.Elevated pees could signal overvaluation if driven by speculative fervor or concentrated in a few stocks, especially if earnings falter or rates rise. Conversely ...

🇺🇸 TRUMP: Urges Fed to cut rates by 3 points, claiming it would save $1 trillion a year. https://t.co/1YWjbLU7u3 ...

Industry Overview - The Zacks Consumer Loans industry includes companies providing various loan products such as mortgages, credit card loans, and personal loans, which are crucial for generating net interest income (NII) [3] - The industry's performance is highly sensitive to the overall economic conditions and consumer sentiments, with many providers also engaging in commercial lending and asset recovery to diversify revenue sources [3] Key Influencing Factors - **Asset Quality**: Prolonged high interest rates are affecting borrowers' repayment capacity, leading to increased reserves by loan providers to mitigate rising defaults, which is deteriorating asset quality [4] - **Interest Rates & Loan Demand**: Steady interest rates have slightly improved loan demand, but consumer confidence remains low due to tariff-related uncertainties, limiting growth in net interest margin (NIM) and NII [5] - **Lending Standards**: Improved credit scores due to the removal of tax liens from credit reports have expanded the borrower pool, while relaxed lending standards are helping meet loan demand [6] Industry Performance - The Zacks Consumer Loans industry has a Zacks Industry Rank of 155, placing it in the bottom 37% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating underperformance in the near term [7][8] - Analysts have revised the industry's earnings estimates for the current year down by 7.9%, reflecting a loss of confidence in earnings growth potential [9] Market Comparison - Over the past two years, the Zacks Consumer Loans industry has outperformed the Zacks S&P 500 composite and the Zacks Finance sector, with a collective stock increase of 68.3% compared to 39.5% and 42% respectively [11] Valuation Metrics - The industry has a trailing 12-month price-to-tangible book ratio (P/TBV) of 1.33X, above the five-year median of 1.03X, but significantly lower than the S&P 500's ratio of 13.33X [14][16] Investment Opportunities - **Capital One Financial Corporation (COF)**: Focused on consumer and commercial lending, COF is well-positioned for growth with a market cap of $141.3 billion and expected earnings growth of 10.7% and 20% for 2025 and 2026 respectively [21][20] - **Enova International, Inc. (ENVA)**: A financial technology company with a market cap of $2.94 billion, ENVA has seen a 20.7% increase in shares this year and is expected to grow earnings by 28.9% and 17.6% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [26][25]

Financial Performance - Banks are expected to report good results, with upward rerating in stocks justified by improved macro environment [2] - Loan growth is decent at about 3% for both commercial industrial and consumer [3] - Higher for longer interest rates have resulted in some upward repricing on securities [3] - 3% loan growth can translate into 5% to 6% net interest income growth [3] Macroeconomic Factors - Deregulatory environment is constructive for banks [2] - Employment is healthy, which is a significant determinant for delinquencies and loan loss provisions [4] - The shock factor of tariffs has abated, with companies finding ways to navigate the tariff environment [6] Potential Risks and Opportunities - Uncertainty from tariffs could result in more moderate loan growth and pause on expansion plans [7] - Trade finance might be negatively impacted by tariffs [7] - IPO and M&A activity could be much stronger in the absence of tariff conversations [7] - Potential for rebound in capital markets generally [7]