Housing Market & Affordability - The average age of a first-time home buyer is a record high of 40 years old [1] - A proposed 50-year fixed-rate mortgage could lower monthly payments by approximately $200, but could result in paying as much as double in interest [1][3] - With a 6% interest rate on a $400,000 home, using a 50-year mortgage instead of a 30-year mortgage could result in paying $320,000 more over the life of the mortgage [3][4] - The core issue is a housing supply problem, with not enough homes for the number of people who want to buy them [4] - Tariffs are making home building more expensive, exacerbating the affordability issue [2][6] Economic Proposals & Fiscal Policy - A proposal to give Americans $2,000 checks, funded by tariff revenue, is being considered [7] - $2,000 checks for every American would cost approximately $600 billion [9] - Tariff revenue is also supposed to be used to pay down debt and bail out farmers, creating a conflict in resource allocation [10] - The Supreme Court might strike down the tariffs, potentially requiring most of the tariff revenue to be refunded [11] - The administration is accused of quietly providing tax relief to private equity firms, crypto companies, foreign real estate investors, insurance providers, and multinational corporations [15] Voter Sentiment & Economic Discontent - Voters are deeply unhappy about the state of the economy [17] - People are frustrated about costs being higher today than they were 5 years ago, even if they are making more money [20] - Tariffs are considered a tax on the American people [21]

GLOBAL HEAD BANK OF BANKING AT UBS AND COHEAD OF THE BUSINESS IN AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND. I WANT TO PICK UP ON A POINT THAT AVERILL WAS MAKING ABOUT GOOD CONSUMER CONFIDENCE NUMBERS WE'VE HAD, HIGHEST IN NOVEMBER. IT GOES TO WHAT WE'VE HEARD FROM THREE OF THE BIG BANKS LAST WEEK.THEY ARE ALL SOUNDING UPBEAT ABOUT CREDIT QUALITY, BUSINESS CONFIDENCE AND THE CONSUMER SECTOR AS WELL. IS THAT THE WAY HE WOULD CHARACTERIZE THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY AT THE MOMENT. FROM AN ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE, YES.WE HAVE SEEN IF ...

Markets are rallying, but this Wall Street pro warns it’s the speed of rate moves that matters… In this episode of Stocks in Translation, Computer Trading Corporation CEO and President Peter Borish joins host Jared Blikre and Senior Reporter Allie Canal to unpack interest rates in today’s economy. While the bull market continues to rally, Borish’s eyes remain on interest rates. He shares that it’s not the level of rates that matters, but the rate of change. From rising gold (GC=F) and silver (SI=F) prices, ...

Economic Outlook - The economy has been resilient, with growth around 18% [2] - The labor market is near full employment but cooling, with both demand and supply decreasing [2][13] - Inflation is closer to 3% than the 2% target [2] - Consumption remains resilient, driven by wealth effects for higher-income households and increased debt for lower-income households [6][7] Consumer Finances - Consumer balance sheets are generally okay, but there was an increase in subprime loan and credit card defaults over the past year, which has since stabilized [8][9] - Lower-income consumers are increasingly using credit card debt to maintain consumption [7] - Many people are having more month than money, with increased visits to food pantries and requests for utility assistance [27] Company Concerns - Companies report that uncertainty has plateaued, allowing them to operate with a higher level of uncertainty [11] - Companies are experiencing higher costs, including those related to tariffs and insurance [11] - Companies closer to the consumer are having difficulty passing on costs due to pushback from buyers [12][13] - Companies are more concerned about non-interest costs, such as raw material and insurance costs, than interest costs [21] Labor Market - The labor market is cooling in an orderly way, with both supply and demand decreasing [13] - Compensation growth is reported to be between 35% and 4% [6] - Layoff announcements have been made, but weekly claims remain stable [13][14] Monetary Policy - Monetary policy is somewhere between modestly restrictive and neutral, closer to neutral [26] - The real federal funds rate is around 1%, which is the long-run neutral rate [26] - In the past year, the real federal funds rate has declined by 250 basis points, with 150 basis points from nominal interest rate reductions and 100 basis points from rising expected inflation due to tariffs [19] - There is limited room to ease policy further without it becoming overly accommodative [24][25] - It is important to bring inflation back towards 2% to allow households to catch up with their real incomes [28] Asset Prices - Financial conditions are very accommodative, and asset valuations are notable [29] - House prices and stock prices seem elevated relative to historical standards [30]

Market Trends & Dynamics - The NASDAQ is up 2%, with Alphabet up almost 35%, Nvidia up almost 4%, and AMD up 6% [1] - The market is experiencing a rebound after the worst week since April [1] - Seasonality is generally favorable for market performance towards the end of the year [6] - AI continues to be a significant driver for the market [5][16] Economic Factors & Fed Policy - The potential government shutdown and its impact on lower-income consumers are being considered [2] - Consumer weakness is a concern, but its short-term impact may be limited [7][8] - The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts, with opinions divided on whether a cut is necessary or beneficial [9][10][13] - Inflation remains a concern, influencing the Fed's decisions [10] AI & Technological Impact - Capital expenditure (capex) in big tech firms is driving economic strength [12] - Companies are starting to see early benefits from AI in areas like marketing, customer interactions, and product design [19][20] - The widespread impact of AI on enterprise efficiency is expected to take several years [21] - Significant investment, approximately $400 billion annually, is being made in AI [11][22]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Fed Governor Stephen Miran calls for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 bps in December. ...

Inflation & Productivity Assessment - Inflation has been relatively contained in goods prices directly affected by tariffs [1] - Other inflation components show no significant surge, and inflation expectations remain well-anchored [1][16] - Productivity and GDP growth are increasing, while the labor market is slowing, indicating firms are seeking efficiency [2] - A 50 basis point adjustment has supported the labor market while maintaining restrictive policies to exert downward pressure on inflation [3] - The Fed aims to bring inflation back down to 2% to restore price stability [8] AI Impact & Business Outlook - Companies are reporting encouraging early signs of AI's positive impact on their bottom line and productivity [4] - AI is seen as potentially transformative, similar to electricity or the steam engine, with the potential to boost productivity and growth [25][26] - Businesses across various sectors are using AI to improve productivity [13] Labor Market Dynamics - Wage growth is moderating, reducing pressure from the cost side of labor [17] - A significant decrease in payroll growth is observed, with the underlying cause being debated [18] - Wage growth is slowing even in sectors heavily reliant on immigration, suggesting a demand shock [20][21] - The economy is currently in a low firing, low hiring period [22] Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - The Fed is in a good position to evaluate information before making further decisions [6] - Policy adjustments have led to lower mortgage interest rates and increased activity in the housing and borrowing markets [29][30] - Monetary policy acts with a lag, influencing decisions for the next six months to a year [30][31] - The Fed relies on government data, private sector surveys, and direct engagement with businesses and consumers [32][33][34]

Core Viewpoint - The final quarter of 2025 showed gradual improvement in UK financial markets, with investors beginning to look beyond earlier turbulence, despite ongoing concerns about inflation and household demand [3][4]. Economic Overview - UK CPI rose to 3.8% in July, plateauing in August and September, with a lower-than-expected September reading potentially indicating a period of lower inflation [4] - Unemployment increased to 4.8% in August, allowing the Bank of England to consider further interest rate cuts after a 25bps reduction to 4.00% in August [4] - Consumer sentiment improved, although households remained cautious with high savings rates and reduced debt [5] - Gilt yields rose due to concerns over public spending and high inflation, indicating challenges for the upcoming Autumn Budget [6] Investment Performance - The unaudited NAV per share increased from 36.43 pence to 36.46 pence, with a total return of +3.51% for shareholders [8] - Qualifying investments contributed positively, with Qureight increasing by 102.4% and Diaceutics by 41.7% [9][10] - Non-qualifying investments saw mixed results, with the IFSL Marlborough UK Micro-Cap Growth Fund and Special Situations Fund posting gains, while WH Smith faced issues due to accounting irregularities [15] Portfolio Structure - The company maintained a strong investment position, ending the period at 98.98% invested, with an increase in qualifying investments from 53.7% to 54.1% [16] - There were no new VCT qualifying IPOs in the quarter, but the company remains optimistic about future deal flow [17] - The company executed three full exits and adjusted its investment in Cohort following strong share price performance [18] Share Buybacks and Market Activity - The company repurchased 3.7 million shares at an average price of 33.31 pence, with the share price increasing from 34.10 pence to 34.40 pence [21] - As of 30 September 2025, the shares traded at a discount of 3.83% to the last published NAV per share [21] Post Period Developments - The unaudited NAV per share decreased to 35.84 pence as of 31 October 2025, reflecting a decline of 1.70% [22]

Egyptian inflation quickened for the first time since May after a hike in fuel prices, increasing the likelihood authorities will leave interest rates unchanged next week https://t.co/KSUCHkbs4C ...

🚨 UPDATE: There is now almost a 67% chance of a rates cut in December, per CME. https://t.co/2LijEmdSxQ ...