The FED hasn't even cut rates yet.We're just getting started! 🚀 https://t.co/erZcDMyWN2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The US Treasury yield curve twist - flattened last week. Stronger - than - expected services PMI and declining initial claims reduced the possibility of near - term rate cuts. Trade developments decreased trade uncertainties and fueled risk - on sentiment, leading to UST selloffs. Trump shifted his strategy regarding the Fed. Looking ahead, the Fed is expected to hold rates in July, but may be open to a September cut. The US Treasury is expected to maintain current coupon issuance sizes and potentially increase long - end buybacks [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Secondary Market Recap - The US Treasury yield curve twist - flattened last week. Manufacturing PMI was disappointing, but services PMI was stronger - than - expected and initial claims declined, reducing the chance of near - term rate cuts. Trump reached trade agreements with Japan, the Philippines, and the EU. Japan's auto sector got tariff relief after pledging $550bn investment in the US. Reduced trade uncertainty promoted risk - on sentiment and led to UST selloffs. Trump changed his approach towards the Fed [3][4] - This week, the focus is on the July FOMC meeting and QRA. The Fed is expected to hold rates with Waller and Bowman dissenting. Tariff - induced price pressures and Trump's tariff increase support Powell's patient approach to rate cuts. However, the Fed may signal openness to a September cut. The US Treasury is expected to keep current coupon issuance sizes and guidelines unchanged and may increase long - end buybacks [4][5][6] - Yields on 2 - year and 5 - year Treasury notes rose 5bp and 1bp respectively, while 10 - year yield fell 3bp. China's credit bonds performed well, with China IG and HY bonds strengthening 3bp and 13bp respectively. China CDS and iTraxx Asia ex - Japan IG CDS tightened 2bps and 3bps respectively [2][7][12] Sector Performance - Financial sector mostly strengthened. AMC spreads compressed further. CFAMCI led gains, and China CITIC Financial AMC's stake increase in China Everbright Bank was credit - positive. CCAMCL 30s tightened to a historical low. In leasing, FRESHK 28s tightened, and the sale of Seaco by Bohai Leasing could drive AVOL spreads tighter. FWDGHDs performed strongly, and AT1s were mixed [8][13] - Tech sector was mixed. After SAMR's regulation on promotions, BABA 35s and JD 30s tightened, while MEITUA 30s widened. AACTEC 31s outperformed with 5bps of tightening [9][14] - Other IG Bonds were generally quiet. HAOHUA 30s and SINOCH 31s held flat. China's new dam project in Tibet may benefit Power Construction Corp of China. CHPWCN perps rose, and HXCEME 25s was lifted. CNMDHL 30s and ZHOSHK 28s widened. In HK IG, COSCO requested rights in the Hutchison Ports deal, Hutchison Port's profit increased, and CKHH curve tightened [10][14] - High - yield corporate sector was relatively quiet. VNKRLE 27s added 0.5pts. NWDEVL bonds were range - bound. West China Cement expected an 80% - 100% YoY jump in 1H25 profit, and its 2026s rose nearly 4pts [11][15] Primary Market - China Mengniu Diary issued 3.5bn offshore RMB sustainable bonds, with 5 - year and 10 - year bonds priced at 2% and 2.3% respectively, significantly narrower than the initial guidance. The market认购 was enthusiastic, with the 5 - year and 10 - year bonds having final subscription amounts of 8.9bn RMB and 9.2bn RMB respectively [16][21]

The VIX volatility index falling below 15 for the first time since February. For more, let's bring in Mandy Shu, head of derivatives market intelligence for SIBO Global Markets. Mandy, it's always great to see you. Great to be here.It's not just the VIX. I mean, volatility across asset classes, bond volatility is also very low. What does this tell you.Yeah, to me, I think it's a sign that what we're seeing in the markets is very much fundamentally driven, right. The fact that equities keep making new all-ti ...

Monetary Policy Stance - Christopher Waller advocated for a rate cut at the upcoming meeting in two weeks [1] - Waller's views have shifted from hawkish to dovish over the past couple of years [1] - The speaker expressed concern that the optimal time for rate cuts was in April and May [2] - The current level of interest rates is considered restrictive [3] - The speaker would like to see the Fed make further adjustments, believing they paused prematurely [3] Economic Outlook - Anticipation of economic reacceleration in September, October, and November [3] - The speaker believes the "one big beautiful bill" contains incentives for business investment [2]

Crypto is starting to turn red on the lower time frames and this is something that I would utilize as an opportunity. We might have that deeper pullback on Bitcoin. I'll go over it in this video.I've been talking about it for a week or so now. Um but overall, you know, nothing too crazy in terms of the drops across the board. You know, some old coins are dropping a little bit harder than others, like CFX for an example, but that's because it ran 100 plus% in just like one day.Um, but overall, you know, we a ...

Thailand picked a rate-cut advocate with close ties to the government as its next central bank governor, defying concerns over a potential erosion of the monetary authority’s independence https://t.co/mFCnfeFM14 ...

🇺🇸 UPDATE: The White House said Trump will not fire Jerome Powell, called for a rate cut, and hinted at possible new tariffs by August 1. https://t.co/uO2VQmrYay ...

Federal Reserve & Interest Rates - The market is closely watching President Trump's pressure on Fed Chair Powell and potential impacts on Fed independence [1][2][10] - Uncertainty surrounding tariffs makes it difficult for the Federal Reserve to predict economic conditions and future rate cuts [3] - There are differing opinions on the timing of rate cuts, with some suggesting July or September, while others believe cuts are not urgent based on current data [10][15][18] - The futures market implies a slow, steady easing bias, and the Fed is ready to respond to downward trends in growth and the labor market [16][17] - Some Fed officials are increasingly voicing support for rate cuts sooner rather than later to get ahead of potential economic lags [7][8][9] Bond Market & Yields - Concerns exist that losing Fed independence could undermine the Treasury market's status as the safest asset [2] - The yield curve could steepen if there is not a credible Fed nominee, potentially leading to higher long-term rates and a bond market "conniption fit" [12] - The long end of the yield curve is reacting to political and economic risks, including questions about Fed independence [23] - Developed market economies are engaging in deficit-driven fiscal spending, requiring bond market absorption, potentially pushing the 30-year yield between 5% and 55% [25][26] - A steeper yield curve is likely to continue, supported by long-end demand and technicals [28] Credit Market & Risk - There's a surge of reverse Samurai bonds, with Japanese companies borrowing overseas, and the U S leveraged loan market is experiencing its busiest week since the start of the year, with volume near $50 billion [30][31] - The market is seeing a rush into riskier debt, but corporations are navigating the backdrop with resilience, though dispersion exists within sectors [32][33][34] - Valuations on a spread basis are approaching all-time high single-digit percentiles, emphasizing the importance of avoiding downside risk [36] - Selectively moving down on credit risk is favored over duration risk, with opportunities in triple B-rated bonds or the high end of high-yield bonds [38][39] - While default rates are historically low, they are creeping higher, and bankruptcies are rising, partly attributed to tariffs and aggressive capital structures [44][45][46][47]

On Tuesday, July 15th, we saw the June CPI data. Headline inflation climbed at 2.7% year-over-year, up from May's 2.4% reading. But X food and energy was lower than expected at plus.2% month overmonth.This mix suggested that the headline number was at least partially driven by elevated oil prices in June. In the wake of the Israel Iran conflict, the market's reaction reflected the general lack of clarity that the data introduced. Initially, the dollar traded lower, presumably believing that the drop in core ...

Market Catalysts anchor Julie Hyman breaks down the latest market moves for July 15, 2025. Nvidia stock hits record highs again on news that the company received assurances from the Trump administration that it would be granted permission to sell its H20 chips in China. President Trump continues to pressure the Fed to cut rates. This time, after the June CPI data came in, indicating that inflation rose slightly. We look at the outlook for Fed rate cuts and what it means for the economy and investors. For mo ...