All right, welcome back. The July Federal Reserve minute shedding a little bit of light into the committee's conversations about where interest rates might go. Two members calling for cuts and now the focus of course shifting to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.Rick Santelli joining us now. Rick, you put out a note to us internally about this. On one hand, they're talking about inflation and on the other hand, they're talking about weaker jobs.That's a tough combo. It i ...

Economic Outlook & Monetary Policy - TD Cowan's chief economist estimates that reduced consumer spending, potentially by 10% to 11% of consumers, is creating a drag on economic growth, possibly due to immigration policy concerns [1] - The market anticipates the Fed will cut rates by 75 basis points, but the speaker is unsure this will happen [3] - The speaker believes the Fed is data-driven and focused on avoiding a resurgence of inflation, potentially leading them to wait longer before cutting rates [2][3] - Fiscal policy, including recent spending bills, is expected to boost the economy, influencing the Fed's decisions [2] Market Dynamics & Investment Strategy - The market is trading near all-time highs, suggesting a potential need for a breather [4] - The current period is characterized by a focus on macroeconomic factors between earnings seasons, including assessing the impact of tariffs [4] - Concerns about potential government penalties for companies like Nvidia may lead investors to take profits [4] Banking & Fintech Revolution - A "mini revolution" is occurring in the banking industry around blockchain technology [4] - Regulators aim to integrate decentralized finance technology, initially designed to bypass banks, into the banking system for monitoring and regulation [4] - Payment systems, many of which are outdated, are expected to undergo a significant transformation [5][6] - Banks will be expected to adopt blockchain technology in payment systems to comply with regulatory oversight [5][6]

Fed Policy & Market Expectations - CNBC's Fed survey indicates respondents anticipate two rate cuts, totaling 50 basis points, with 25 basis points expected in September and another 25 in December [6] - The market is pricing in an 84% probability of a rate cut, leaving a 16% probability of no cut [9] - A majority (70%) of respondents believe Powell's speech at Jackson Hole will be neutral [3][4] - The market may be disappointed if Powell's speech is neutral or doesn't address policy at all [7][8] Inflation Outlook - Despite expectations of rate cuts, inflation is projected to remain around 3% this year and next, exceeding the Fed's target by 1 percentage point [6] - 63% of respondents believe substantial price increases are on the way due to tariffs [3] Potential Fed Chair Replacement - The survey suggests Kevin Hasset is the most likely candidate to replace Fed Chair Powell, according to respondents, but they believe former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh would be a better choice [2][3][4] - Among named candidates, Hasset is the frontrunner, followed by Fed Governor Chris Waller, Kevin Warsh, and former St Louis Fed President James Bullard [3] - 41% of respondents believe the next Fed chair will conduct policy independently of the president, while 37% think it will be in coordination [4]

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will discuss the U S economy [1] - Powell's remarks will include the inflation outlook [1] - Potential interest rate forecasts will be addressed at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium [1] Monetary Policy - The speech may provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy decisions [1]

All right. So, again, we we kind of hit this a couple times in the show. We've seen a change in momentum, a lot of anxiety about what J Pal is going to uh say coming up on Friday and how doubbish or hawkish he may be.What are your expectations. Do you think that he's going to signal a 25 point rate cut. Will he leave the door open for a 50point rate cut that it seems the market really wants. >> I doubt that he'll leave the door open for a 50 basis rate point cut.Um it doesn't make sense given the basic unde ...

Monetary Policy & Interest Rates - The market's pricing in an 80-90% chance of rate cuts in September is considered unlikely due to upcoming data releases [5] - The Fed's decision-making remains data-dependent, with upcoming inflation and employment reports being crucial [3][6] - There's a possibility of rate cuts later in the year, but the timing and magnitude are uncertain [4] - The Fed should be cautious about adopting a dovish tone, as it could lead to a resurgence of inflation [8] Inflation Outlook - Inflation pressures persist, particularly in sticky areas like services and housing [4][11] - The impact of tariffs implemented in August on inflation is yet to be fully realized [7][14] - The fourth quarter is expected to be a volatile period for inflation due to the delayed effects of tariffs [15] - Inflation is not considered a long-term issue, but volatility is expected over the next 6-9 months [13] Employment & Economic Concerns - The labor market is showing signs of weakening, which the Fed will need to consider [4][10] - The Fed needs to balance concerns about inflation with the employment picture [9][10]

BREAKING: 🇬🇧 UK inflation rises to 3.8%, highest level in 19 months. https://t.co/5Ad9xd4RUf ...

Inflation Trends - UK inflation rises to 3.8%, the highest level in 19 months [1]

Monetary Policy & Interest Rates - The market is uncertain about Fed Chair Powell's upcoming statements on future rate cuts at Jackson Hole [1] - The Fed is expected to maintain maximum policy optionality, potentially conflicting with the White House's desires [2] - The advisor suggests the Fed should have already cut rates, advocating for a cut in September [11] - A 25 basis point cut is recommended, but a 50 basis point cut is possible if a poor labor report precedes the September meeting [11] - Maintaining optionality risks being late, potentially leading to a larger policy error [12][13] Inflation & Economic Outlook - The advisor notes "sticky inflation" at 25%-3% and suggests that as long as inflationary expectations are anchored, the economy can tolerate this level [13] - The advisor argues that the current 2% inflation target may be inappropriate given structural changes in the economy [13][14] - The advisor believes the Fed is excessively data-dependent, reacting to past data rather than anticipating future trends [3][4] Labor Market - The unemployment rate of 42% is the only reassuring indicator in the labor market [8] - Other labor market indicators, along with company reports and college graduate outcomes, suggest a softening labor market [9] - The labor market's decline is not linear, with potential for sudden downturns following initial slowdowns [10][11]

Market Broadening & Investment Strategy - Miller Value Partners 认为市场正在经历一个拓宽阶段，类似于 1999 年至 2006 年期间的情况 [1][2] - 建议积极投资于小盘周期性股票 [4] - 类似于 2000 年到 2006 年的环境，小型股价值指数几乎增长了两倍，跑赢大盘增长股 20%/年，持续 7 年 [3] Macroeconomic Factors - 美国失业率较低但略有上升 [3] - 通货膨胀在很大程度上受到控制，货币政策制定者受到鼓励放松政策 [4] - 债券市场目前预计未来 2 年的年化通胀率为 2.6%，属于可控范围 [5] Valuation Discrepancies & Capital Intensity - 科技七巨头（Mag 7）的估值相对于市场其他部分非常高，同时资本支出也在急剧增加 [6] - 科技七巨头（Mag 7）的资本支出占运营现金流的比例从 2020 年的三分之一以下增加到 2023 年的 60% 以上 [7] - 行业内对 AI 模型的过度投资可能导致价格战 [9] Specific Company Analysis - Alphabet 是价值投资者投资人工智能的途径，因为它拥有 YouTube、搜索和 Waymo 等资产的分配渠道 [9][10] - 尽管 Alphabet 具有更好的增长和护城河，但其交易价格低于市场 [10] - Android 操作系统每天都在 70% 的人手中，这是一个护城河 [12]