Federal Reserve Policy & Leadership - The President is considering potential replacements for Jay Powell as head of the Federal Reserve, whose term ends next May [1][2] - The White House maintains that the Federal Reserve should remain independent, as designed, citing academic literature that demonstrates negative economic consequences when central banks lose independence [7][8] - The President has expressed policy disagreements with the Federal Reserve, believing it has been mismanaged, but the White House asserts he is not disrespecting its independence [8][9] - The President would like to see the Federal Reserve cut rates by as many as three percentage points [9] - There is internal debate and legal uncertainty within the White House regarding the President's authority to fire Jay Powell [17][18] Interest Rates & Economic Policy - If the Federal Reserve had acted at the same pace as the European Central Bank (ECB), rates might be approximately 250 basis points (2.5%) lower [10] - There is a concern that the Federal Reserve's independence is not being respected by its own members, given that several banks worldwide are reducing rates while the Federal Reserve has not changed rates since President Trump's inauguration [10] - The current US interest rate is considered an outlier compared to Europe's rate, given the normal correlation between ECB and Federal Reserve policy [11] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed zero inflation for the month [11] Trade & Tariffs - The President is engaged in ongoing trade negotiations with numerous countries, with approximately 20-25 more countries reaching out to the US Trade Representative to begin negotiations [23] - The President will compare the outcomes of these negotiations to the offers in the letters and decide what is best for America, with a decision expected by the beginning of August [23][24] - The White House argues that the President's trade policy has not caused a spike in inflation; in fact, inflation has decreased [25][26] - The Council of Economic Advisors has released a report indicating that the price of imported goods has been decreasing, despite the imposition of almost $200 billion in tariffs [27]

Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The market reacted negatively to rumors of President Trump firing Federal Reserve chief Pal, with longer-term interest rates increasing from 497% to 507% in an hour, and the S&P 500 decreasing from 6,254 to 6,201 [3][4] - The market rallied when the President denied the rumors, indicating that the stock and bond markets do not want Pal ousted [3][5] - The market is questioning whether Trump is wrong about firing Pal, as stocks are supposed to benefit from lower interest rates, but didn't soar when the rumor of Pal's firing surfaced [8] - The consumer price index showed signs of inflation from the President's tariffs, with higher prices for clothing, furniture, cleaning products, food away from home, meats, poultry, coffee, gasoline, and even soft drinks [10][11] - The Fed is waiting to see the full impact of tariffs before cutting rates, as the economy is not currently in a slowdown, and employment is at 41% [14][15] Big Banks Earnings Analysis - The big banks' year-to-date gains ranged from 7% for Bank of America to nearly 25% for Goldman Sachs, setting a high bar for earnings season [32] - JP Morgan raised its full-year net interest income forecast by $1 billion, but also raised its expense guidance by $500 million [34][35] - Wells Fargo cut its full-year forecast for net interest income, causing the stock to drop more than 5% [38][39] - Citigroup reported a big top and bottom line beat, with net interest income more than $1 billion above the consensus estimate, and the stock jumped 37% [42] - Bank of America managed a bottom line beat, but missed on the top line due to a nasty net interest income miss [45] - Goldman Sachs had the best report of the big banks, with investment banking up 26% year-over-year, equities trading up 36%, and M&A advisory revenue up 71% year-over-year [48][49] - Morgan Stanley reported healthy top and bottom line beats, with wealth and investment management having $82 trillion in combined total client assets [49] Cheesecake Factory Analysis - Cheesecake Factory's stock is up over 31% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500's 65% gain over the same period [53] - The company has 350 locations across the US and Canada, including 215 flagship Cheesecake Factory restaurants [54] - The diverse menu eliminates the "no vote" when deciding where to go out to eat, and the wide variety of price points offers value for everyone [57] - Cheesecake Factory's annualized unit volume is $125 million, an obscenely large number for the restaurant industry [58] - The company has been named one of Fortune Magazine's 100 best places to work for the 12th consecutive year [60] - Recent operational performance and notable results were driven by the company's talented team and ongoing focus on staffing and retention [62] - The company delivered impressive unit level margins of 166% in its most recent quarter, while Wall Street was only looking for 158% [66] - The company is planning to open 25 new locations this year across all their brands, with North Italia's unified at $775 million and Flower Child's at $46 million [67][68] First Horizon Analysis - First Horizon delivered a strong enough quarter to make the stock rally, with a small revenue beat plus a nice 3 cent earnings beat off a 42 cent basis [78][79] - The customer has become very encouraged and confident over the course of the last 90 days, with momentum building across the quarter [81] - The company's CFO said that the high rates has really stifled mortgage originations, but the team has done a really nice job of consolidating market share [86] - Lower rates would actually accelerate growth in the economy, and would have a stimulative effect in the near term [90][91] - There's a real opportunity in the middle market space, and there's a very good place for First Horizon in this space [93][94] Investment Strategy - When a stock starts to go lower, it will often keep going lower until all the people who don't know anything are done selling, and you get a terrific price from their ignorance [113] - If you own a stock and you see it go down, first check the conference call transcript, then put it through a chatbot and ask if anything went wrong that you might have missed [115][116] - If it checks out, then the answer is you need to do some buying on weakness, because the weakness won't last for long [116]

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said he expects tariffs to have a bigger impact on inflation in the months ahead, making the US central bank’s current restrictive stance "entirely appropriate" https://t.co/jugr8i2yCg ...

if in fact President Trump uh gets his wish as is his right under law to appoint a new chair who will be more in line with his views. He said he thinks the interest rate really should be at 1% or even below that. Is that good for Bank of America. Is that good for the economy.Well, let me make two things. One is you're absolutely right. Uh in May of next year, the term of the current Fed chair ends after being reappointed.And you it's the right of the elected uh president to appoint the next uh successor and ...

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he still supports holding interest rates steady and pointed to recent inflation data showing price pressures are rising https://t.co/rylbcqVuNz ...

Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - The President has stated he will not fire the Federal Reserve Chair [3] - The Federal Reserve claims its decisions are data-driven, which is causing frustration for the President [6] - Inflation data has been better than expected, with the "super core metric" (consumer services excluding rents) being 150 basis points lower than when the Fed began cutting rates [7] - History suggests the Fed typically follows market pricing, implying rates should eventually decrease [7] Tariffs & Inflation - The administration argues that tariffs are not inflationary and are being absorbed by foreign profit margins [6][7] - The US could collect upwards of $300 billion in tariff revenue annually [8][12] - Import prices of goods directly impacted by tariffs have fallen, suggesting tariffs are being built into margins [11][12] - The tariffs' impact on inflation has been minimal, contrary to earlier predictions [12] US Economic Leverage - The US, as the world's largest consumer, dictates market terms, giving it leverage in negotiations [14]

South Africa’s central bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago signaled confidence that inflation would remain within its target for the next two years, despite uncertainties stemming from US tariffs https://t.co/BMpPlCBqDV ...

Gary Cohn was National Economic Council Director in the first Trump administration, and now he’s weighing in on U.S. inflation data and the nation’s future monetary policy. If it were up to him, Cohn says he’d try cutting rates–just a little. Ben Gilbert & David Rosenthal are hosts of Acquired, a podcast boasting interviews with guests like Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, Mark Zuckerberg, and Howard Schultz, as well as a million listeners per episode. Ten years into the project, Gilbert and Rosenthal discuss how the ...

I mean speaking of rates, you've been for last year or so at least higher for longer camp and Fed for the better part of the year has been on hold. So that's been right. What do you think happens next. Well, you know, the trajectory here, you know, you're asking what happens next.You're talking about in 2025. You think we'll get a few cuts. I I think there's I think there's a reasonable chance we get a cut or two.Um but not certain. And you know I think the market is absorbing the trade policy but on the ca ...

Monetary Policy - Argentina's economic team signals a firm control over the money supply [1] - This control is seen as crucial for curbing inflation [1] - It also aims to stabilize the peso [1] Political Impact - Stabilizing the economy is important for maintaining Milei's high approval ratings [1]