Market Performance & Trends - S&P 自四月低点以来上涨 30%，Magnificent 7 上涨 50%，年初的普涨趋势已经反转，主要由 Magnificent 7 驱动 [2] - 市场存在 AI 狂热，约 1 trillion 美元的资本支出掩盖了市场中的一些担忧 [3] - Russell 2000 的表现优于 S&P，等权重优于市值权重，但 Magnificent 7 的表现仍然优于其他 [2][3] Tariffs & Consumer Impact - 平均关税已从年初的 2%-3% 升至 15%-16%，但尚未看到关税对消费者的影响 [4][5] - 批发商正在吸收关税增加的价格，但尚未传导给消费者，而消费者占经济的 2/3 [4] - 关税对消费者的影响以及对通货膨胀的影响仍有待观察，10% 的增长幅度是可能发生的 [5] Federal Reserve (The Fed) & Interest Rates - 市场预计 9 月份降息的可能性为 80%，10 月份降息的可能性为 100%，但一切皆有可能 [8] - Newberger Private Wealth 预计今年将降息两次，除非出现意外的负面情况，否则预计不会降息三次 [9] - 市场情绪化，美联储的职责是保持客观，使用事实、数字和硬数据，避免屈服于政治压力 [8] - 鲍威尔在 Jackson Hole 的讲话备受关注，市场将根据他的言论做出反应 [6][7]

Welcome to Yahoo Finance's flagship show, The Morning Brief. I'm Julie Hyman. Let's get to the three things you need to know today.First up, US stock features little change this morning after closing out flat in Monday's trading session. Investors in wait and see mode ahead of the Fed's meeting in Jackson Hole, where traders will search for clues on the central bank's plans for interest rates. Plus, Home Depot out with its earnings results.The world's largest home improvement company posting disappointing s ...

Gold Market Analysis - Lowering interest rates globally, especially outside the US, and deflationary forces are beneficial for gold [1] - Central banks are significantly increasing gold purchases through ETFs, reversing four years of outflows from gold ETFs [2] - Gold holdings have increased by almost 11%, with investors potentially anticipating a stock market correction [3] - Corn is exhibiting a bull flag pattern, holding steady at approximately $3,333 per ounce for five months [2] Commodity Market Trends - The market has already priced in potential easing measures, despite ongoing inflation and strong employment [5] - Copper's potential downward tilt could signal a broader bearish trend in commodities, as crude oil and corn prices decline [6] - Global tariffs on the world's largest goods importer are creating pressure on copper prices [6][7]

Jackson Hole Symposium Focus - The industry anticipates significant media interest in this year's Jackson Hole symposium due to attacks on the Fed, potentially exceeding lodging capacity [1] - The symposium will likely focus on how Fed Chair Jay Powell messages the current economic situation [3] - The industry speculates on potential announcements, including the possibility of Fed Chair Jay Powell stepping aside [4] - Fed communication is expected to be crucial, especially regarding potential rate cuts and concerns about perceived political pressure [9][10] Key Discussion Points - The industry expects discussion on how the Fed will adapt its labor market measurements considering artificial intelligence and immigration [14] - Immediate focus is on the dual mandate of the Fed, particularly regarding goods and services inflation [16] - The intellectual significance of central bank independence and its impact on inflation will be a key topic [17][18] - The historical context of central bank independence, referencing events like the Panic of 1907 and the 1951 agreement, will be explored [19]

Monetary Policy & Framework - The industry observes an odd timing for a major new framework announcement from the Fed, suggesting it should be addressed by the incoming chairman after consultation [1][2] - The industry notes the Fed's past errors leaned towards excessive transparency and forecasting, leading to iatrogenic volatility, and suggests fewer dot plots and forecasts [2][3] - The industry suggests a return to a more vague and oracular approach, similar to Volcker and Greenspan, given the current challenge of preventing high inflation expectations from becoming embedded [4][5] - The industry emphasizes the importance of symmetry with respect to inflation and learning from the previous framework's shortcomings [6] - The industry highlights the need for careful consideration of the management of the maturity structure of the federal debt, especially when the Treasury and the Fed have conflicting objectives [7] Inflation & Interest Rates - The industry acknowledges persistent inflation above the 2% target, yet markets anticipate a Fed rate cut in September [8] - The industry notes evidence of economic weakening is likely driving market expectations for a Fed rate ease [9] - The industry interprets the market's anticipation of a 25 basis point cut in September as a likelihood, with possibilities of 50 basis points or zero being equally likely [10] - The industry cautions against certainty about future actions, as data could push towards a 50 basis point cut or further delay [11] Economic & Geopolitical Considerations - The industry expresses surprise at the Treasury Secretary's prescriptive stance on monetary policy, suggesting a 175 basis point cut [12][13] - The industry suggests elevated deficit spending, data center spending, reduced trade deficits, and higher asset prices may be raising the net demand for funds, potentially increasing neutral interest rates [15] - The industry expresses disappointment that President Trump hasn't leveraged frozen Russian reserves to drive a just peace with Ukraine [17][18]

Market Trends & Dynamics - Coffee prices spiked 145% in July year-over-year, with average retail price for a pound of ground coffee hitting $841 [1] - Coffee futures are at their highest level in two months and having their best month since January [15] - The US gets more than a third of its unroasted coffee imports from Brazil, the world's top coffee producer [1] - The US coffee industry imports most of its coffee from Latin America, including Brazil, but there are options to import more coffee from places like Vietnam, Indonesia, and Ethiopia [5] Impact of Tariffs - President Trump's 50% tariffs on imports from Brazil are about to worsen coffee prices [1] - Tariffs will likely have noticeable impacts on food prices in the coming weeks and months [3] - The brunt of these tariffs will be borne by a combination of firms, typically manufacturers, retailers, and mostly consumers [12] - Steel and aluminum tariffs on places like China will further impact the coffee supply chain in terms of packaging and capital inputs [19] Supply Chain & Production - The supply of coffee is inelastic, meaning there are limited stores of coffee available for immediate purchase [5][6] - Domestic coffee production in the US (Hawaii and Puerto Rico) accounts for approximately 1% of the coffee consumed [8][9] - There is effectively no capacity to ramp up domestic coffee production to substitute imports [9] Pricing & Inflation - Coffee price inflation is already one of the fastest-moving categories in terms of the CPI and is expected to continue to climb in the next 3 to 5 months [14][15] - Food companies operate on very thin margins, limiting their capacity to absorb tariff costs [12][13] - Producer Price Index (PPI) for coffee beans has been increasing more dramatically than retail prices, indicating further price increases to come [18]

Federal Reserve Policy - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve (Fed) to potentially cut rates, influenced by conflicting signals from inflation and employment data [2][3] - There is internal debate within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regarding whether to prioritize inflation or growth concerns [3][4] - The market is closely watching for guidance from the Fed chair, as his stance will be critical in shaping committee consensus [9][10][11] - Dissent within the FOMC is growing, potentially leading to a divided committee and a challenging press conference for the chair [11][12][13][14][15] Inflation and Market Expectations - The market is pricing in inflation above the Fed's 2% target in one year's time, as indicated by one-year ahead inflation swaps trading at 33% [11] - The market has adjusted its expectations regarding the number of rate cuts, initially anticipating three cuts but now expecting closer to two [18] Economic Outlook and Trade - Concerns exist about a potential trade-related slowdown, particularly in the context of ongoing trade wars [20] - Simulations suggest that raising the effective tariff rate from 3% to 18% could decrease GDP by 07%, but not necessarily lead to a recession [21][22]

Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee wants to see at least one more inflation report to ensure persistent price pressures are not increasing [1]

Politics & Governance - Gavin Newsom and California are challenging Donald Trump's attempts to rig congressional districts, advocating for democratic processes against perceived Republican gerrymandering [4][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][22][23][24][25][28][30] - The report highlights the contrast between Democratic and Republican approaches to governance, particularly regarding transparency and accountability, referencing the Epstein files [7][8][9] - California's redistricting process is presented as a transparent and public alternative to alleged backroom deals in other states [23] Economics & Policy - Donald Trump's economic policies, including tariffs, are criticized for leading to higher prices and inflation, impacting consumers and seniors [52][53][57][58][60][61][64][65] - The report discusses the potential conflict of interest involving Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant and his soybean farmland in North Dakota, raising concerns about trade negotiations with China [78][79][80][81][82][83][84][85][86][87][88][89] - Social Security is highlighted as a crucial anti-poverty program, with concerns raised about potential Republican efforts to cut Medicaid by 900 billion, Medicare by 500 billion, and the Affordable Care Act by 300 billion [38][39][40][41][44][46][47][48][49][50][51] International Relations - Donald Trump's approach to the war in Ukraine is criticized, with claims that he has failed to solve the conflict and is aligning with Vladimir Putin's position [65][66][67][68][69][70][71][72][73][74][75][76] - Vladimir Putin is seen as gaining from meetings with Donald Trump, potentially normalizing relations and changing the subject away from Ukraine [73][74][75][76] Social Issues - The report emphasizes the importance of protecting vulnerable communities and addressing issues such as healthcare and deportation [34][36] - The legacy of Franklin Delano Roosevelt and the Social Security Act is celebrated, highlighting the importance of economic security and social safety nets [38][39][40][41][44][45]

inflation was higher than expectedtherefore I will sell the only asset designed to hedge against inflation— crypto r. mfers ...